18459 Upper Ridge Rd · Saxton, PA 16657

$99,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · Other · 46 Days on market

0.53 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• Appreciation +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

SELLER OFFERING $2000 CREDIT UNTIL JUNE 1, 2026. Escape to 18459 Upper Ridge Road in James Creek—just 2 miles from Weaver Falls Boat Launch! This cozy retreat is the perfect Raystown camp or hunting base, offering comfort, convenience, and adventure right out your back door. A brand-new roof and deck (less than 1 year old) provide peace of mind and an ideal spot to relax after a long day outdoors. With * * ample parking for your boat, camper, or ATVs—and a camper included with the sale featuring a mid-trailer bunkbed for extra sleeping space— * * this property is designed for hunters, anglers, and outdoor enthusiasts alike. Whether you're planning a weekend getaway, a hunting trip, or a family retreat, this ready-to-go property is your key to Raystown living.

Key facts

• Brand new deck
• Brand new roof
• Ample parking

Tags

• BRAND NEW ROOF
• BRAND NEW DECK
• AMPLE PARKING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $99 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $90k (10.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $90k (10.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#867 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Tussey Mountain SD (rural): math 26% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #412 of 539 in PA (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 30 active listings in the ZIP; 70 units permitted in Huntingdon County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (1.1% local appreciation)).
• Huntingdon County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $46k; list at $100k implies a 117% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $89,942 (10.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.23%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.13% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $8,778
• Equity at exit: $34,803

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.26×
• Total profit: $35,172
• Equity at exit: $46,796

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16657

• Home prices YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 30
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $899 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$46 /mo · $556/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$189
• Net cashflow: $99

Break-even live

Break-even rent $774

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending 791-char remark

   Show marketing remark (791 chars)

   SELLER OFFERING $2000 CREDIT UNTIL JUNE 1, 2026. Escape to 18459 Upper Ridge Road in James Creek—just 2 miles from Weaver Falls Boat Launch! This cozy retreat is the perfect Raystown camp or hunting base, offering comfort, convenience, and adventure right out your back door. A brand-new roof and deck (less than 1 year old) provide peace of mind and an ideal spot to relax after a long day outdoors. With * * ample parking for your boat, camper, or ATVs—and a camper included with the sale featuring a mid-trailer bunkbed for extra sleeping space— * * this property is designed for hunters, anglers, and outdoor enthusiasts alike. Whether you're planning a weekend getaway, a hunting trip, or a family retreat, this ready-to-go property is your key to Raystown living.

2. 2026-04-10
   price $99,900 791-char remark

   Show marketing remark (791 chars)

   SELLER OFFERING $2000 CREDIT UNTIL JUNE 1, 2026. Escape to 18459 Upper Ridge Road in James Creek—just 2 miles from Weaver Falls Boat Launch! This cozy retreat is the perfect Raystown camp or hunting base, offering comfort, convenience, and adventure right out your back door. A brand-new roof and deck (less than 1 year old) provide peace of mind and an ideal spot to relax after a long day outdoors. With * * ample parking for your boat, camper, or ATVs—and a camper included with the sale featuring a mid-trailer bunkbed for extra sleeping space— * * this property is designed for hunters, anglers, and outdoor enthusiasts alike. Whether you're planning a weekend getaway, a hunting trip, or a family retreat, this ready-to-go property is your key to Raystown living.

3. 2026-03-19
   listed $100,000 Active 791-char remark

   Show marketing remark (791 chars)

   SELLER OFFERING $2000 CREDIT UNTIL JUNE 1, 2026. Escape to 18459 Upper Ridge Road in James Creek—just 2 miles from Weaver Falls Boat Launch! This cozy retreat is the perfect Raystown camp or hunting base, offering comfort, convenience, and adventure right out your back door. A brand-new roof and deck (less than 1 year old) provide peace of mind and an ideal spot to relax after a long day outdoors. With * * ample parking for your boat, camper, or ATVs—and a camper included with the sale featuring a mid-trailer bunkbed for extra sleeping space— * * this property is designed for hunters, anglers, and outdoor enthusiasts alike. Whether you're planning a weekend getaway, a hunting trip, or a family retreat, this ready-to-go property is your key to Raystown living.

4. 2026-02-02
   status Active
5. 2026-01-15
   price $100,000
6. 2025-12-20
   price $113,400
7. 2025-10-30
   price $113,500
8. 2025-09-20
   price $119,500
9. 2025-07-31
   listed $128,500 Active
10. 2021-01-20
    soldstatus $46,000
11. 2021-01-15
    soldstatus $46,000
12. 2020-07-11
    listed $65,000
13. 2015-06-17
    soldstatus $30,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $556 · $46/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,067 · $89/mo
• Expected delta: +$511/yr (+$43/mo · 92.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 5 d/yr ≥96°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,793
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$556
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$863
• − Management: −$863
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable loss: −$491
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$118
• After-tax cash flow: $1,302/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tussey Mountain SD
• NCES district ID: 4223970
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $40,095
• Composite: 30.15/100
• National rank: #6329
• State rank: #412 of 539 in PA

Livability — Saxton

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #867
• US rank: #9119

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,262

Population outlook (Huntingdon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 44,212 people
• By 2030: 43,057 · -2.6%
• By 2040: 40,537 · -8.3%
• By 2050: 37,844 · -14.4%
• By 2075: 31,411 · -29.0%
• By 2100: 23,907 · -45.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Asian 3% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Huntingdon

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.9) · D 23.2% · R 76.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.4pp toward R · 2008: -27.5pp · 2024: -52.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.9 2020: R+51.0 2016: R+50.7 2012: R+37.4 2008: R+27.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.13%
• Current HPI: 100.1097
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+233.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — HCBR
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $99,900 HCBR
• 2026-03-19 Listed $100,000 HCBR
• 2026-02-02 Relisted — HCBR
• 2026-01-15 Price Changed $100,000 HCBR
• 2025-12-20 Price Changed $113,400 HCBR
• 2025-10-30 Price Changed $113,500 HCBR
• 2025-09-20 Price Changed $119,500 HCBR
• 2025-07-31 Listed $128,500 HCBR
• 2021-01-20 Sold (Public Records) $46,000 Public Records
• 2021-01-15 Sold (MLS) $46,000 AHARMLS
• 2020-07-11 Listed $65,000 AHARMLS
• 2015-06-17 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $556 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.