16042 Hidden Acres Dr · Houston, TX 77084

$245,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,792 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 104 Days on market

Built 1983 4,051 sqft lot $137/sqft · 6% below area Est $261k · 6% under $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.2/15.0
• Cash flow +8.6/30.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Picture yourself coming home to 16042 Hidden Acres Drive, a one owner home that has been thoughtfully cared for & well maintained. The brick and Hardi-plank exterior, wrought-iron entry gate, gas lantern, & brick-laid front porch create an inviting setting for evening unwinds or weekend conversations. Inside, engineered wood floors & crown moulding frame a light-filled living space with soaring ceilings & a wood-burning fireplace. The updated kitchen offers granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a breakfast room ideal for everyday routines. All bedrooms are upstairs, including a primary retreat with dual closets, an ensuite bath, & a balcony. Step outside to a fully fenced backyard with patio. Major updates include HVAC system replaced in 2022, skylight in 2024, & double pane windows in 2018. For full list of updates, see attached upgrade list. Zoned to Katy ISD with a low 2.04% tax rate & easy access to Hwy 6 & I-10. Amenities include pickleball, tennis, pools, & more.

Key facts

• Crown moulding
• Gas lantern
• 4,051 sq ft lot

Tags

• BRICK AND HARDI-PLANK EXTERIOR
• WROUGHT-IRON ENTRY GATE
• GAS LANTERN
• BRICK-LAID FRONT PORCH
• ENGINEERED WOOD FLOORS
• CROWN MOULDING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-212 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $208k (15.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (17.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $201k (17.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bear Creek El (math 23% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 668 students, 84% FRL); Cardiff J H (math 34% / reading 40%, grade F, #756 of 1,662 statewide, top 47%, 863 students, 84% FRL); Katy H S (math 62% / reading 74%, grade B, #150 of 1,632 statewide, top 10%, 3,330 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 27% district-wide (41 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 44% at this address vs 62% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Katy ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.9%/yr); 505 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.4%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $245k implies a 309% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $201,261 (17.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.71%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $260,686
• List price: $245,000
• Delta: -6.02%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16042 Hidden Acres Dr	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,792 (0%)	1mo	$245,000	$137	97
15834 Sandy Hill Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,706 (-5%)	2mo	$264,400	$155	76
16010 Sunbeam River Dr	0.14mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,958 (+9%)	0mo	$260,000	$133	73
5043 Whispering Falls Dr	0.51mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,791 (-0%)	1mo	$289,900	$162	70
15615 Four Leaf Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,823 (+2%)	1mo	$249,000	$137	70
16530 Moary Firth Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,731 (-3%)	1mo	$229,990	$133	68
16523 Loch Maree Ln	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,814 (+1%)	2mo	$230,000	$127	64
15910 Haven Hills Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,942 (+8%)	1mo	$220,000	$113	61
5031 Whispering Falls Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,596 (-11%)	1mo	$219,990	$138	57
16426 Moary Firth Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,532 (-14%)	1mo	$240,000	$157	56
4615 Clydesdale Dr	0.58mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,901 (+6%)	2mo	$239,000	$126	56
4307 Glennale Dr	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,603 (-10%)	1mo	$251,000	$157	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.4% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-42,095
• Equity at exit: $54,513

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-60,883
• Equity at exit: $53,387

Cash invested: $68,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77084

• Home prices YoY: -0.6%
• Rents YoY: -2.9%
• Active inventory: 505
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,013 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax from tax record: −$373 /mo · $4,476/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$423
• Net cashflow: $-212

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,281

Max offer price $207,563

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-73	-5% $-143	+0% $-212	+5% $-281	+10% $-351
Rent	-10% $-371	-5% $-291	+0% $-212	+5% $-132	+10% $-53
Rate	-1.0pp $-89	-0.5pp $-150	base $-212	+0.5pp $-275	+1.0pp $-340

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,250
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16027 Hidden Acres Dr Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1699	$1,849	$1.09	0d	1	0.04mi
4614 Cloudmount Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1823	$2,290	$1.26	4d	1	0.28mi
4407 Hickory Grove Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1486	$1,850	$1.24	45d	1	0.38mi
15907 Red Willow Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1744	$1,920	$1.10	45d	1	0.39mi
16327 Dounreay Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1710	$1,779	$1.04	4d	1	0.47mi
16430 Sheffield Run Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	2227	$2,249	$1.01	9d	1	0.58mi
15802 Echo Canyon Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1709	$1,699	$0.99	24d	1	0.61mi
4719 Hidden Springs Dr Houston, TX	4.0	3.0	2131	$2,465	$1.16	0d	1	0.66mi
16662 Royal Mile Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1438	$3,250	$2.26	20d	1	0.70mi
15631 Cascade Point Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1904	$1,926	$1.01	7d	1	0.70mi
16727 Royal Mile Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1471	$1,561	$1.06	21d	1	0.85mi
16803 Royal Mile Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,800	$1.29	45d	1	0.86mi
15619 Fern Ridge Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1958	$2,335	$1.19	26d	1	0.98mi
15831 Yorktown Crossing Pkwy Unit 3174 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1487	$2,309	$1.55	12d	1	1.31mi
15831 Yorktown Crossing Pkwy Unit 525 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1487	$2,269	$1.53	0d	1	1.31mi
15831 Yorktown Crossing Pkwy Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1470	$2,381	$1.62	4d	1	1.33mi
15831 Yorktown Crossing Pkwy Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1159	$2,689	$2.32	0d	1	1.33mi
15831 Yorktown Crossing Pkwy Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1263	$1,970	$1.56	45d	1	1.33mi
15903 Yorktown Crossing Pkwy Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	989	$1,628	$1.65	1d	33	1.36mi
6102 Crakston St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1862	$1,850	$0.99	45d	1	1.39mi
5703 Afton Ridge Ln Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	2203	$1,896	$0.86	24d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr
• Likely covers: gaspool

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-07
   status Pending 1034-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1034 chars)

   Picture yourself coming home to 16042 Hidden Acres Drive, a one owner home that has been thoughtfully cared for & well maintained. The brick and Hardi-plank exterior, wrought-iron entry gate, gas lantern, & brick-laid front porch create an inviting setting for evening unwinds or weekend conversations. Inside, engineered wood floors & crown moulding frame a light-filled living space with soaring ceilings & a wood-burning fireplace. The updated kitchen offers granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a breakfast room ideal for everyday routines. All bedrooms are upstairs, including a primary retreat with dual closets, an ensuite bath, & a balcony. Step outside to a fully fenced backyard with patio. Major updates include HVAC system replaced in 2022, skylight in 2024, & double pane windows in 2018. For full list of updates, see attached upgrade list. Zoned to Katy ISD with a low 2.04% tax rate & easy access to Hwy 6 & I-10. Amenities include pickleball, tennis, pools, & more.

2. 2026-05-04
   status Pending 1034-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1034 chars)

   Picture yourself coming home to 16042 Hidden Acres Drive, a one owner home that has been thoughtfully cared for & well maintained. The brick and Hardi-plank exterior, wrought-iron entry gate, gas lantern, & brick-laid front porch create an inviting setting for evening unwinds or weekend conversations. Inside, engineered wood floors & crown moulding frame a light-filled living space with soaring ceilings & a wood-burning fireplace. The updated kitchen offers granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a breakfast room ideal for everyday routines. All bedrooms are upstairs, including a primary retreat with dual closets, an ensuite bath, & a balcony. Step outside to a fully fenced backyard with patio. Major updates include HVAC system replaced in 2022, skylight in 2024, & double pane windows in 2018. For full list of updates, see attached upgrade list. Zoned to Katy ISD with a low 2.04% tax rate & easy access to Hwy 6 & I-10. Amenities include pickleball, tennis, pools, & more.

3. 2026-04-14
   price $245,000 1034-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1034 chars)

   Picture yourself coming home to 16042 Hidden Acres Drive, a one owner home that has been thoughtfully cared for & well maintained. The brick and Hardi-plank exterior, wrought-iron entry gate, gas lantern, & brick-laid front porch create an inviting setting for evening unwinds or weekend conversations. Inside, engineered wood floors & crown moulding frame a light-filled living space with soaring ceilings & a wood-burning fireplace. The updated kitchen offers granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a breakfast room ideal for everyday routines. All bedrooms are upstairs, including a primary retreat with dual closets, an ensuite bath, & a balcony. Step outside to a fully fenced backyard with patio. Major updates include HVAC system replaced in 2022, skylight in 2024, & double pane windows in 2018. For full list of updates, see attached upgrade list. Zoned to Katy ISD with a low 2.04% tax rate & easy access to Hwy 6 & I-10. Amenities include pickleball, tennis, pools, & more.

4. 2026-02-26
   price $255,000 1034-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1034 chars)

   Picture yourself coming home to 16042 Hidden Acres Drive, a one owner home that has been thoughtfully cared for & well maintained. The brick and Hardi-plank exterior, wrought-iron entry gate, gas lantern, & brick-laid front porch create an inviting setting for evening unwinds or weekend conversations. Inside, engineered wood floors & crown moulding frame a light-filled living space with soaring ceilings & a wood-burning fireplace. The updated kitchen offers granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a breakfast room ideal for everyday routines. All bedrooms are upstairs, including a primary retreat with dual closets, an ensuite bath, & a balcony. Step outside to a fully fenced backyard with patio. Major updates include HVAC system replaced in 2022, skylight in 2024, & double pane windows in 2018. For full list of updates, see attached upgrade list. Zoned to Katy ISD with a low 2.04% tax rate & easy access to Hwy 6 & I-10. Amenities include pickleball, tennis, pools, & more.

5. 2026-02-11
   price $265,000 1034-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1034 chars)

   Picture yourself coming home to 16042 Hidden Acres Drive, a one owner home that has been thoughtfully cared for & well maintained. The brick and Hardi-plank exterior, wrought-iron entry gate, gas lantern, & brick-laid front porch create an inviting setting for evening unwinds or weekend conversations. Inside, engineered wood floors & crown moulding frame a light-filled living space with soaring ceilings & a wood-burning fireplace. The updated kitchen offers granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a breakfast room ideal for everyday routines. All bedrooms are upstairs, including a primary retreat with dual closets, an ensuite bath, & a balcony. Step outside to a fully fenced backyard with patio. Major updates include HVAC system replaced in 2022, skylight in 2024, & double pane windows in 2018. For full list of updates, see attached upgrade list. Zoned to Katy ISD with a low 2.04% tax rate & easy access to Hwy 6 & I-10. Amenities include pickleball, tennis, pools, & more.

6. 2026-01-23
   listed $275,000 Active 1034-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1034 chars)

   Picture yourself coming home to 16042 Hidden Acres Drive, a one owner home that has been thoughtfully cared for & well maintained. The brick and Hardi-plank exterior, wrought-iron entry gate, gas lantern, & brick-laid front porch create an inviting setting for evening unwinds or weekend conversations. Inside, engineered wood floors & crown moulding frame a light-filled living space with soaring ceilings & a wood-burning fireplace. The updated kitchen offers granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a breakfast room ideal for everyday routines. All bedrooms are upstairs, including a primary retreat with dual closets, an ensuite bath, & a balcony. Step outside to a fully fenced backyard with patio. Major updates include HVAC system replaced in 2022, skylight in 2024, & double pane windows in 2018. For full list of updates, see attached upgrade list. Zoned to Katy ISD with a low 2.04% tax rate & easy access to Hwy 6 & I-10. Amenities include pickleball, tennis, pools, & more.

7. 1988-04-22
   soldstatus $59,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,476 · $373/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,484 · $374/mo
• Expected delta: +$8/yr (+$1/mo · 0.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,151
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,724
• − Property taxes: −$4,476
• − Insurance: −$1,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,932
• − Management: −$1,932
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable loss: −$6,769
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,625
• After-tax cash flow: $-919/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 110,217
• Household income: $80,575
• Rent vs Own: 40.0% rent · 60.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 3257.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% Two or more races 22% White 22% Black 16% Asian 11% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 38% Other Indo-European 5% Vietnamese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.40%
• Current HPI: 251.8474
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.89%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+309.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $245,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $255,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $265,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-23 Listed $275,000 HARMLS
• 1988-04-22 Sold (Public Records) $59,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,476 · -3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.