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12357 Nantahala Run
D Composite 41.4
Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • ARV discount +14.4/15.0
  • Cash flow +7.8/30.0
  • Schools +5.8/10.0
  • Condition / age +4.0/5.0
  • 1% rule +2.9/10.0
  • Livability +2.5/5.0
  • Rent growth +2.3/5.0
  • DSCR +1.8/10.0
  • Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$379,000

12357 Nantahala Run · Parrish, FL 34219
4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,043 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 168 Days on market
Built 2022 Good condition 5,998 sqft lot 2-car garage $186/sqft · 15% below area Est $447k · 15% under $131/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 10% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Step into comfort and style with this beautiful 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath all-concrete-block-constructed home in the sought-after Bella Lago community. Built in 2022, this home offers 2,043 square feet of easy living space designed for everyday enjoyment and entertaining. The bright and open floor plan features updated luxury vinyl plank flooring, added plantation shutters, and a gorgeous kitchen with all-white cabinets and granite countertops—a perfect place to gather with family and friends.

Key facts

  • Screened lanai
  • 5,998 sq ft lot
  • 2 garage spots

Tags

ALL CONCRETE BLOCK CONSTRUCTEDADDED PLANTATION SHUTTERSWHOLE HOME SURGE PROTECTIONSCREENED LANAIPEACEFUL VIEWS OF THE PRESERVEHIS AND HERS WALK IN CLOSETS

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $379k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $-428 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
  • To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $303k (19.9% below list).
  • To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $299k (21.1% below list).
  • Recommended offer: $299k (21.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
  • Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
  • Zoned schools: Barbara A Harvey Elementary School (math 74% / reading 59%, grade B+, #473 of 2,144 statewide, top 23%, 1,069 students, 33% FRL); Buffalo Creek Middle School (math 59% / reading 51%, grade B-, #180 of 571 statewide, top 32%, 1,127 students, 44% FRL); Parrish Community High School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #160 of 667 statewide, top 25%, 2,017 students, 32% FRL).
  • Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2985 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 74d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 73% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
  • This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

  • Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
  • Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 168 days — a 12% lower offer ($334k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
  • 5 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

  • Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer $298,930 (21.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
  2. It's been on market 168 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
  3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
  4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
  5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
  7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
0.79%
Cap rate
4.94%
Cash-on-cash
-4.83%
DSCR
0.78
GRM
10.6

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$447,191
List price
$379,000
Delta
-15.25%
Verdict
UNDERPRICED
Comps
20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
12423 Nantahala Run 0.04mi 4/2.5 2,043 (0%) 3mo $413,000 $202 96
12315 Dora Trl 0.19mi 4/2.5 2,043 (0%) 4mo $410,000 $201 88
10516 Chippewa Dr 0.27mi 3/2.5 (-1) 2,045 (+0%) 2mo $524,990 $257 80
10418 Charlotte Dr 0.39mi 4/2.5 2,045 (+0%) 3mo $434,000 $212 79
10816 Manawa Ter 0.59mi 4/2.5 2,045 (+0%) 6mo $411,163 $201 67
11928 Kingsley Trl 0.74mi 4/2.5 2,045 (+0%) 3mo $425,000 $208 63
11979 Kingsley Trl 0.71mi 4/2.5 2,045 (+0%) 5mo $400,000 $196 63
11924 Kingsley Trl 0.74mi 4/2.5 2,045 (+0%) 3mo $415,000 $203 63
11983 Kingsley Trl 0.70mi 4/2.5 2,045 (+0%) 6mo $403,000 $197 62
12123 Kingsley Trl 0.51mi 4/2.0 1,828 (-10%) 6mo $370,000 $202 52
12313 Mountain Island Trl 0.56mi 4/2.0 1,828 (-10%) 6mo $370,000 $202 50
12154 Mountain Island Trl 0.73mi 4/2.5 2,248 (+10%) 3mo $375,000 $167 46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
-28.1%
Equity multiple
0.08×
Total profit
$-97,256
Equity at exit
$56,510
10-year hold
IRR
-45.5%
Equity multiple
-0.44×
Total profit
$-153,002
Equity at exit
$32,769

Cash invested: $106,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Florida
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.
Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now
40 active · 29 under contract
Months of supply
6.0 mo (17%/mo absorbed)
Median asking
$389,450 ($196/sqft)
Median days on market
114 d
This list price
40% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking
+11.8% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34219

Home prices YoY
-23.7%
Rents YoY
-0.9%
Active inventory
2985
Price-to-rent
10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$2,989 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
$1,988
Tax from tax record
$513 /mo · $6,152/yr
Insurance
$158
HOA
$131
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
$628
Net cashflow
$-428

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,531
Max offer price $303,471
Occupancy floor

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $-213 -5% $-320 +0% $-428 +5% $-535 +10% $-642
Rent -10% $-664 -5% $-546 +0% $-428 +5% $-309 +10% $-191
Rate -1.0pp $-237 -0.5pp $-331 base $-428 +0.5pp $-526 +1.0pp $-626

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$94,750
Closing costs
$11,370
Reserves months
Total cash needed

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 26 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
12415 Nantahala Run Parrish, FL 4.0 2.5 2045 $2,700 $1.32 5d 1 0.06mi
12456 Nantahala Run Parrish, FL 4.0 2.5 2045 $2,699 $1.32 93d 1 0.16mi
10832 Charlotte Dr Parrish, FL 5.0 3.0 2964 $2,779 $0.94 62d 1 0.17mi
11007 Tamarack Pl Parrish, FL 4.0 3.0 2537 $3,000 $1.18 65d 1 0.24mi
11007 Tamarack Pl Unit NA Duette, FL 4.0 3.0 2537 $3,000 $1.18 107d 1 0.24mi
10757 Chippewa Dr Parrish, FL 5.0 3.0 2605 $2,750 $1.06 63d 1 0.26mi
10642 Chippewa Dr Parrish, FL 4.0 3.0 2435 $2,550 $1.05 9d 1 0.33mi
12432 Dora Trl Parrish, FL 4.0 2.5 2044 $3,000 $1.47 63d 1 0.39mi
12140 Kingsley Trl Parrish, FL 4.0 2.0 1828 $2,266 $1.24 9d 1 0.46mi
12067 Kingsley Trl Parrish, FL 4.0 2.5 2045 $2,495 $1.22 98d 1 0.55mi
11824 Blue Diamond Trl Parrish, FL 4.0 3.0 2576 $2,995 $1.16 9d 1 0.58mi
10219 Charlotte Dr Parrish, FL 5.0 3.0 2502 $2,599 $1.04 9d 1 0.60mi
10219 Charlotte Dr Parrish, FL 5.0 3.0 2502 $2,725 $1.09 62d 1 0.60mi
10116 Charlotte Dr Parrish, FL 4.0 2.5 2308 $3,050 $1.32 81d 1 0.60mi
11937 Kingsley Trl Parrish, FL 4.0 2.5 2045 $2,700 $1.32 73d 1 0.74mi
10048 Big Marsh Ter Parrish, FL 3.0 2.0 2034 $2,825 $1.39 119d 1 0.78mi
10225 Kalamazoo Pl Unit NA Parrish, FL 4.0 2.5 2260 $2,689 $1.19 106d 1 0.79mi
10225 Kalamazoo Pl Parrish, FL 4.0 2.5 2260 $2,789 $1.23 98d 1 0.79mi
12215 Radiant Gem Trl Parrish, FL 4.0 2.5 2584 $3,000 $1.16 111d 1 0.92mi
9928 Wimico Ter Parrish, FL 3.0 2.0 1504 $2,400 $1.60 93d 1 1.02mi
13118 Empress Jewel , FL 5.0 2.5 2215 $3,100 $1.40 9d 1 1.04mi
9911 Wimico Ter Parrish, FL 3.0 2.0 1504 $2,400 $1.60 9d 1 1.07mi
12805 Crystal Jade Way Parrish, FL 4.0 2.5 2162 $2,600 $1.20 78d 1 1.31mi
13416 Noble Garnet Ln Parrish, FL 3.0 2.5 1993 $2,395 $1.20 73d 1 1.36mi
13441 Noble Garnet Ln Parrish, FL 3.0 3.0 1747 $2,295 $1.31 80d 1 1.36mi
13420 Noble Garnet Ln Parrish, FL 3.0 2.5 1767 $2,095 $1.19 65d 1 1.36mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other
Lease restrictions apply
HOA & community
HOA managed by Icon ManagementMonthly HOA fee of $131 (required; association approval required)HOA includes pool and maintenance of groundsCommunity amenities: pool, fitness center, playground, dog park, community mailbox, sidewalks, reclaimed water irrigationPets allowed

Exterior

Parking
Attached 2-car garage (19 x 20) with garage door openerDriveway
Utilities
Public waterPublic sewerElectricity connectedCable connectedSewer connectedWater connected
Home design
Single family residenceOne storyFaces northeastResidential property in PD-MU zoningCDD and homestead applicable
Construction
Block and stucco constructionShingle roofSlab foundationBuilt as a single-level home
Exterior features
Covered rear porchScreened porchHurricane shuttersRain guttersSidewalkSliding doorsIrrigation equipmentPaved road access

Interior

Kitchen
DishwasherDisposalMicrowaveRangeRefrigeratorWater filtration system
Bedrooms
4 bedrooms
Flooring
Carpet
Bathrooms
2 full baths1 half bath
Heating & cooling
Central heatingCentral air
Interior features
Ceiling fansEat-in kitchenKitchen/family room comboLiving room/dining room comboOpen floorplanThermostatTray ceilingsWalk-in closetsWindow treatmentsBlinds
Laundry & utility
Laundry roomWasherDryerElectric water heater

Listing history 50 events

  1. 2026-09-22
    days on market $379,000 Active 168 DOM
  2. 2026-09-21
    days on market $379,000 Active 167 DOM
  3. 2026-09-20
    days on market $379,000 Active 166 DOM
  4. 2026-09-19
    days on market $379,000 Active 165 DOM
  5. 2026-09-18
    days on market $379,000 Active 164 DOM
  6. 2026-09-17
    days on market $379,000 Active 163 DOM
  7. 2026-09-16
    days on market $379,000 Active 162 DOM
  8. 2026-09-15
    days on market $379,000 Active 161 DOM
  9. 2026-09-14
    days on market $379,000 Active 160 DOM
  10. 2026-09-13
    days on market $379,000 Active 159 DOM
  11. 2026-09-12
    days on market $379,000 Active 158 DOM
  12. 2026-09-11
    days on market $379,000 Active 157 DOM
  13. 2026-09-05
    days on market $379,000 Active 151 DOM
  14. 2026-09-04
    days on market $379,000 Active 150 DOM
  15. 2026-09-03
    days on market $379,000 Active 149 DOM
  16. 2026-08-31
    days on market $379,000 Active 146 DOM
  17. 2026-08-30
    days on market $379,000 Active 145 DOM
  18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $379,000 Active 144 DOM
  19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $379,000 Active 143 DOM
  20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $379,000 Active 142 DOM
  21. 2026-08-26
    days on market $379,000 Active 141 DOM
  22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $379,000 Active 140 DOM
  23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $379,000 Active 139 DOM
  24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $379,000 Active 138 DOM
  25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $379,000 Active 137 DOM
  26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $379,000 Active 136 DOM
  27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $379,000 Active 135 DOM
  28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $379,000 Active 134 DOM
  29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $379,000 Active 133 DOM
  30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $379,000 Active 132 DOM
  31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $379,000 Active 131 DOM
  32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $379,000 Active 130 DOM
  33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $379,000 Active 129 DOM
  34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $379,000 Active 128 DOM
  35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $379,000 Active 127 DOM
  36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $379,000 Active 126 DOM
  37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $379,000 Active 125 DOM
  38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $379,000 Active 124 DOM
  39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $379,000 Active 123 DOM
  40. 2026-08-07
    days on market $379,000 Active 122 DOM
  41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $379,000 Active 121 DOM
  42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $379,000 Active 120 DOM
  43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $379,000 Active 119 DOM
  44. 2026-08-03
    pricedays on market $379,000 Active 118 DOM
  45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $384,000 Active 115 DOM
  46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $384,000 Active 113 DOM
  47. 2026-07-28
    days on market $384,000 Active 112 DOM
  48. 2026-07-24
    days on market $384,000 Active 108 DOM
  49. 2026-07-23
    days on market $384,000 Active 107 DOM
  50. 2026-07-22
    days on market $384,000 Active 106 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

Current annual tax
$6,152 · $513/mo
Projected year-2 tax
$6,152 · $513/mo
Expected delta
$0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

  • 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
  • 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
  • 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
  • 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
  • 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$35,872
− Mortgage interest
−$21,230
− Property taxes
−$6,152
− Insurance
−$1,895
− Repairs & maintenance
−$2,870
− Management
−$2,870
− HOA
−$1,572
− Depreciation
−$11,025
Taxable loss
−$11,742
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
+$2,818
After-tax cash flow
$-2,313/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This 2022-built, 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home in Bella Lago offers a good condition with updated finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It's move-in ready with minimal maintenance required.

Value-add opportunities

  • Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value
  • Resale roof inspection — ensures durability and longevity
  • Rental HVAC maintenance — keeps systems running efficiently
D Composite school gradezoned avg 58/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Barbara A Harvey Elementary School B+ FL #473/2,144 Nat'l #4,825/41,679 Middle Buffalo Creek Middle School B- FL #180/571 Nat'l #2,482/14,009 High Parrish Community High School D+ FL #160/667 Nat'l #5,016/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District
Manatee
NCES district ID
1201230
Math proficiency
54% ▼ -6.00%
Reading proficiency
50% ▼ -2.00%
Median HH income
$49,607
Composite
44.43/100
National rank
#2806
State rank
#26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Parrish

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

County
Manatee County · 447,342 people
City population
33,296
Metro
North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
Population (ZIP)
33,296
Household income
$113,773
Rent vs Own
8.1% rent · 91.9% own
Severe rent burden
16% of renters

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
447,342 people
By 2030
488,911 · +9.3%
By 2040
567,934 · +27.0%
By 2050
637,995 · +42.6%
By 2075
781,970 · +74.8%
By 2100
848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Predominantly White (75%)
Race & ethnicity
White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
Common ancestry
Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
Foreign-born
10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
Languages at home
88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

2024 margin
Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
2008→2024 swing
-16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
All cycles
2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

Civics

Price history

-10.0% since first listed
14 events — show timeline
  • 2026-05-16 Price Changed $389,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2026-04-07 Listed $399,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2025-10-31 Listing Removed Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2025-09-15 Price Changed $421,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2025-08-28 Price Changed $422,250 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2025-08-19 Relisted Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2025-08-06 Pending Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2025-07-31 Price Changed $423,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2025-07-14 Listed $425,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2025-03-31 Listing Removed Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2025-03-12 Price Changed $429,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2024-10-01 Listed $449,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2022-09-28 Listed $432,420 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2022-09-28 Sold (MLS) $432,420 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+64.7%/yr

Latest (2024): $6,152 · -5.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

Loading sold comps…