5095 Raymond Ave · Burton, MI 48509

$184,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,940 sqft · SingleFamily · 14 Days on market

Built 1964 0.66 ac lot Est $225k · 18% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice 3 bedroom ranch offering 1,040(+/-) sq ft with vinyl windows, a newer roof, and a finished lower level with fireplace. Home features a 2 car attached garage, newer well, deck, and a large fenced yard. Needs some TLC but offers great potential for an owner occupant or investor.

Key facts

• Vinyl windows
• Attached garage
• Newer roof

Tags

• VINYL WINDOWS
• NEWER ROOF
• FINISHED LOWER LEVEL
• FIREPLACE
• ATTACHED GARAGE
• NEWER WELL

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual tax reported

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Private well water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level with ground-level entry and steps
• Construction: Vinyl siding and other exterior materials; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Paved road access; Lot approximately 0.66 acres (dimensions: 99 x 290 x 97 x 291)

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); No central cooling
• Interior features: Finished basement; Total of 5 rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $73 ($872/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $164k (11.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $164k (11.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.8% in Burton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#555 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, crime F.
• Bentley Community School District (suburban): math 10% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #473 of 540 in MI (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 83 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 419 units permitted in Genesee County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Genesee County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $163,500 (11.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.68%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $225,040
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5101 Kendall Dr	0.16mi	3/1.5	1,754 (-10%)	1mo	$185,000	$105	74
5112 Kendall Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	2,053 (+6%)	20mo	$229,000	$112	60
4304 Lapeer Rd	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,901 (-2%)	13mo	$245,000	$129	49
1051 Arapaho Dr	0.73mi	3/1.5	2,025 (+4%)	10mo	$245,000	$121	48
1227 Howe Rd	0.69mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,916 (-1%)	10mo	$209,500	$109	47
1317 Audrey Ave	0.55mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,020 (+4%)	17mo	$195,000	$97	44
4469 Lapeer Rd	0.43mi	3/1.5	1,720 (-11%)	23mo	$213,500	$124	40
1444 Amy St	0.72mi	3/2.0	2,089 (+8%)	12mo	$180,000	$86	40
1403 Amy St	0.63mi	3/1.0	1,708 (-12%)	16mo	$222,000	$130	38
1353 Merle Ave	0.64mi	3/2.5	1,788 (-8%)	17mo	$208,000	$116	37
1042 Arapaho Dr	0.69mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,656 (-15%)	5mo	$215,000	$130	32
1364 Munson St	0.67mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,650 (-15%)	4mo	$150,000	$91	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-25,347
• Equity at exit: $27,569

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-16,161
• Equity at exit: $15,987

Cash invested: $51,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48509

• Active inventory: 83
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,635 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$172 /mo · $2,068/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$343
• Net cashflow: $73

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,543

Max offer price $184,900

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $177	-5% $125	+0% $73	+5% $20	+10% $-32
Rent	-10% $-57	-5% $8	+0% $73	+5% $137	+10% $202
Rate	-1.0pp $166	-0.5pp $120	base $73	+0.5pp $25	+1.0pp $-24

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,225
• Closing costs: $5,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1036 Forest Ave Burton, MI	3.0	1.0	1650	$1,635	$0.99	45d	1	0.41mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-14
   listed $184,900 Active 282-char remark

   Show marketing remark (282 chars)

   Nice 3 bedroom ranch offering 1,040(+/-) sq ft with vinyl windows, a newer roof, and a finished lower level with fireplace. Home features a 2 car attached garage, newer well, deck, and a large fenced yard. Needs some TLC but offers great potential for an owner occupant or investor.

2. 2026-05-14
   listed $184,900 Active

   Show marketing remark (282 chars)

   Nice 3 bedroom ranch offering 1,040(+/-) sq ft with vinyl windows, a newer roof, and a finished lower level with fireplace. Home features a 2 car attached garage, newer well, deck, and a large fenced yard. Needs some TLC but offers great potential for an owner occupant or investor.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,068 · $172/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,458 · $205/mo
• Expected delta: +$390/yr (+$32/mo · 18.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,620
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,357
• − Property taxes: −$2,068
• − Insurance: −$924
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,570
• − Management: −$1,570
• − Depreciation: −$5,379
• Taxable loss: −$2,248
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$539
• After-tax cash flow: $1,411/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bentley Community School District
• NCES district ID: 2604800
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $48,977
• Composite: 16.51/100
• National rank: #9183
• State rank: #473 of 540 in MI

Livability — Burton

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #555
• US rank: #17380

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Burton, MI
• City population: 26,014
• Population (ZIP): 9,532

Population outlook (Genesee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 381,312 people
• By 2030: 362,731 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 321,550 · -15.7%
• By 2050: 279,212 · -26.8%
• By 2075: 193,336 · -49.3%
• By 2100: 128,118 · -66.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Two or more races 10% Black 7% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Genesee

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.4% · R 47.2% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.3pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+4.2 2020: D+9.3 2016: D+9.5 2012: D+28.2 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -148.63%
• Current HPI: 210.1588
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Listed $184,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-14 Listed $184,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,068 · +21.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.