40 Lake Tour Rd · Lake Luzerne, NY 12846

$285,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,112 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1950 0.76 ac lot Est $244k · 17% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.7/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

* * OPEN HOUSE Sunday, 6/21 from 10-12 * * Looking for a beautiful home close to Glens Falls, Saratoga, and Lake George, but just far enough away to offer that peace and tranquility that the Adirondacks have to offer? This is the home you are looking for! This beautiful home offers all the amenities of a typical Adirondack home but also has a peaceful 3-season room and pool for outdoor enjoyment! This 2-bedroom offers room for an office or an en-suite nursery. If functionality and a fantastic price are what you are looking for, this is a must-see!

Key facts

• 0.76 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Pool

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Paved parking; 2 garage spaces (2 parking spaces total)
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single family residence; Metal roof; Wood siding construction
• Construction: Block foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Driveway paved; Above-ground pool; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven / range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Oven
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the second floor
• Flooring: Hardwood
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (first floor); One full bathroom (second floor)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Window unit(s) for cooling
• Interior features: 9 total rooms; Wood-burning stove; Other built-in appliances
• Laundry & utility: Washer/Dryer; Laundry closet; Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $532 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $285k).
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 7.0% in Lake Luzerne — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#682 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Hadley-Luzerne Central School District (rural): math 41% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #396 of 590 in NY (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hadley-Luzerne Junior-Senior High School (math 62% / reading 67%, grade B-, #776 of 1,100 statewide, top 73%, 304 students, 54% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 49% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Hadley-Luzerne Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 180 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $30k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Warren County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $80k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$49k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $285,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
5. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
6. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.00%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $243,528
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
94 Sagamore St	0.35mi	2/1.0	1,050 (-6%)	3mo	$230,000	$219	72
958 E River Dr	0.13mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,242 (+12%)	19mo	$125,000	$101	54
11 Stewart Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,250 (+12%)	8mo	$273,200	$219	47
11 Bay Rd	0.53mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,154 (+4%)	22mo	$449,000	$389	42
32 Davern Dr	0.57mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,044 (-6%)	23mo	$300,000	$287	39
155 Sagamore Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,040 (-6%)	22mo	$355,000	$341	36
23 Traver St	0.72mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,150 (+3%)	22mo	$179,900	$156	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.37×
• Total profit: $189,085
• Equity at exit: $256,751

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.1%
• Equity multiple: 7.64×
• Total profit: $530,162
• Equity at exit: $553,692

Cash invested: $79,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12846

• Home prices YoY: 16.1%
• Active inventory: 39
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,049 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax from tax record: −$197 /mo · $2,368/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$640
• Net cashflow: $532

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,376

Max offer price $285,000

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,250
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-18
   remarks 560-char remark
2. 2026-06-18
   listed $285,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,368 · $197/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,592 · $299/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,224/yr (+$102/mo · 51.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,592
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$2,368
• − Insurance: −$2,222
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,927
• − Management: −$2,927
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable income: $1,892
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$454
• After-tax cash flow: $5,929/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hadley-Luzerne Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3613110
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $52,974
• Composite: 42.18/100
• National rank: #3292
• State rank: #396 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lake Luzerne

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #682
• US rank: #12851

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Luzerne, NY
• Population (ZIP): 3,007

Population outlook (Warren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,372 people
• By 2030: 60,491 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 55,616 · -10.8%
• By 2050: 50,437 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 40,843 · -34.5%
• By 2100: 31,159 · -50.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Lithuanian 10% German 5%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Warren

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.9pp toward R · 2008: 2.6pp · 2024: -4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.2 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+10.6 2012: D+2.1 2008: D+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 46.73%
• Current HPI: 336.2179
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Listed $285,000 Global MLS

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,368 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.