60 Hibiscus Cir #60 · Chelsea Cove, NY 12533

$29,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 462 sqft · Condo · 33 Days on market

Built 1960 $63/sqft · 64% below area ↓ 55% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

In Hopewell Junction Forest Lake Co-Op. Enjoy the Lake for spring and summer activities!! One bedroom, one bath adorable Seasonal Bungalow!Kitchen and dining area, nice size bedroom. Enjoy your morning coffee on the deck or cocktails in the evening. Get away from your busy worldand into a country retreat. Enjoy nature sounds of Sylvan Lake. Top it off with activities such as swimming, boating, fishing, paddle boarding andenjoying the sandy beach on the lake with a separate doggie beach. This unit is attached. Close to parks, shopping centers, Taconic Pkwy, I-84 &major highways for easy commute. Set up your showing and don't miss out. This Season is from May to Mid October

Key facts

• Close to parks
• Shopping centers
• Seasonal bungalow

Tags

• SEASONAL BUNGALOW
• KITCHEN AND DINING AREA
• SANDY BEACH ON THE LAKE
• SEPARATE DOGGIE BEACH
• CLOSE TO PARKS
• SHOPPING CENTERS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $29k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $29k).
• Recommended offer: $28k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 52.2% vs local median 2.5% in Chelsea Cove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Arlington Central School District (suburban): math 77% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #106 of 590 in NY (top 18%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 202 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 14% of the median local income ($142k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $200 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $870 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($28k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $28,130 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.72% ✓
• Cap rate: 52.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 163.92%
• DSCR: 8.29
• GRM: 1.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $79,920
• List price: $29,000
• Delta: -53.70%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 9.12×
• Total profit: $65,971
• Equity at exit: $4,324

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 19.29×
• Total profit: $148,515
• Equity at exit: $2,507

Cash invested: $8,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12533

• Active inventory: 202
• Price-to-rent: 1.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,658 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$152
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$36 /mo · $435/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$348
• Net cashflow: $1,109

Break-even live

Break-even rent $254

Max offer price $29,000

Occupancy floor 28%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,129	-5% $1,119	+0% $1,109	+5% $1,099	+10% $1,089
Rent	-10% $978	-5% $1,044	+0% $1,109	+5% $1,175	+10% $1,240
Rate	-1.0pp $1,124	-0.5pp $1,117	base $1,109	+0.5pp $1,102	+1.0pp $1,094

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,250
• Closing costs: $870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $29,000 Active 33 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $29,000 Active 32 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $29,000 Active 31 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $29,000 Active 30 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $29,000 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $29,000 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $29,000 Active 24 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $29,000 Active 23 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $29,000 Active 22 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $29,000 Active 18 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $29,000 Active 17 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $29,000 Active 16 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $29,000 Active 15 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $29,000 Active 14 DOM
15. 2026-05-16
    listed $29,000 Active 684-char remark

    Show marketing remark (684 chars)

    In Hopewell Junction Forest Lake Co-Op. Enjoy the Lake for spring and summer activities!! One bedroom, one bath adorable Seasonal Bungalow!Kitchen and dining area, nice size bedroom. Enjoy your morning coffee on the deck or cocktails in the evening. Get away from your busy worldand into a country retreat. Enjoy nature sounds of Sylvan Lake. Top it off with activities such as swimming, boating, fishing, paddle boarding andenjoying the sandy beach on the lake with a separate doggie beach. This unit is attached. Close to parks, shopping centers, Taconic Pkwy, I-84 &major highways for easy commute. Set up your showing and don't miss out. This Season is from May to Mid October

16. 2026-05-16
    historical

    Show marketing remark (684 chars)

    In Hopewell Junction Forest Lake Co-Op. Enjoy the Lake for spring and summer activities!! One bedroom, one bath adorable Seasonal Bungalow!Kitchen and dining area, nice size bedroom. Enjoy your morning coffee on the deck or cocktails in the evening. Get away from your busy worldand into a country retreat. Enjoy nature sounds of Sylvan Lake. Top it off with activities such as swimming, boating, fishing, paddle boarding andenjoying the sandy beach on the lake with a separate doggie beach. This unit is attached. Close to parks, shopping centers, Taconic Pkwy, I-84 &major highways for easy commute. Set up your showing and don't miss out. This Season is from May to Mid October

17. 2026-05-11
    price $29,000
18. 2025-11-03
    listed $37,000 Active
19. 2025-10-16
    historical
20. 2025-05-15
    listed $37,000 Active
21. 2025-04-23
    status Pending
22. 2025-04-23
    historical
23. 2025-04-02
    price $37,000
24. 2025-03-03
    price $45,000
25. 2024-11-19
    listed $50,000 Active
26. 2024-11-06
    historical
27. 2024-08-07
    listed $50,000 Active
28. 2024-08-06
    historical
29. 2024-05-21
    historical
30. 2024-05-21
    listed $58,000 Active
31. 2024-04-11
    listed $65,000 Active
32. 2024-04-08
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 16% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,893
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,624
• − Property taxes: −$435
• − Insurance: −$145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,591
• − Management: −$1,591
• − Depreciation: −$844
• Taxable income: $13,662
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,279
• After-tax cash flow: $10,031/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Arlington Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3603270
• Math proficiency: 77% ▲ 19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $83,597
• Composite: 63.47/100
• National rank: #613
• State rank: #106 of 590 in NY

Livability — Chelsea Cove

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Dutchess County · 188,048 people
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• Population (ZIP): 27,325
• Household income: $141,585
• Rent vs Own: 10.3% rent · 89.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 190.0

Population outlook (Dutchess County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 291,768 people
• By 2030: 287,131 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 274,881 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 259,971 · -10.9%
• By 2075: 235,366 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 208,786 · -28.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 13% Asian 6% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 5% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 3% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Dutchess

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.4) · D 52.7% · R 47.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.2pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: 5.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.4 2020: D+9.6 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+6.6 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.32%
• Current HPI: 232.2351
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-55.4% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-16 Listed $29,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $29,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-03 Listed $37,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-16 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-15 Listed $37,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-23 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-23 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-02 Price Changed $37,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-03 Price Changed $45,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-19 Listed $50,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-06 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-07 Listed $50,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-06 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-21 Listed $58,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-21 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-11 Listed $65,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-08 Coming Soon — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid