30555 Draco · Winchester, CA 92596

$639,900

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,391 sqft · Land public records · 84 Days on market

Built 2024 4,138 sqft lot $126/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

NEW CONSTRUCTION in Winchester - SOLAR INCLUDED!! - This 2,384-sf home with a California Bungalow façade has a DOWNSTAIRS bedroom and full bathroom. Upstairs is the main bedroom with ensuite bathroom and generous size walk-in closet, 3 additional bedrooms and full bathroom, and a LARGE upstairs LOFT and laundry room! The Island kitchen has a breakfast bar, New Valle Nevado granite counters, built-in stainless-steel appliances and a pantry closet. The interior comes complete with Alto stained maple shaker-style cabinetry, lots of included recessed lighting throughout, plush carpet in bedrooms and closets and vinyl in main living areas! There is also a direct-access two car garage with EXTRA STORAGE AREA and PREPLUMBED for an electric car! This truly modern home has all the SmartHome features you would expect and, is FULLY LANDSCAPED AND IRRIGATED in the front yard. This community is situated close to park and freeway access. We anticipate an mid-April 2025 move-in and we can't wait to Welcome you Home!!

Key facts

• Large island
• Full bath
• Granite countertops

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• LARGE ISLAND
• DOWNSTAIRS BEDROOM
• FULL BATH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community features: golf course, biking, hiking, lake, suburban setting, park
• Financial info: Special assessments
• HOA & community: Part of Pradera Point association; Monthly association fee; Association fee: $126/month; Association amenities include playground, dog park, outdoor cooking area, picnic area, other courts (call for rules)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Three garage spaces; Driveway; Direct garage access; Total of 3 parking spaces
• Utilities: 220V in garage; Public sewer; Public/District water (water connected)
• Home design: House; Two stories; No attached accessory unit (no ADU); No common walls
• Construction: Stucco construction; Tile roof
• Exterior features: Tile roof; Vinyl fencing; Patio (has patio); Sprinklers (drip system); Has view; Turnkey condition

Interior

• Kitchen: Granite counters; Gas range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Refrigerator; Tankless water heater; Eating areas include formal dining room and in-kitchen dining
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom; Primary suite with primary bathroom; One bedroom on the main level; Walk-in closet; Loft and office spaces
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Carpet
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms; One main level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central furnace heating; Central cooling
• Interior features: Recessed lighting; Open floor plan; Storage space; Tandem; Double pane windows with blinds; Two levels; Front entry (entry level 1)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room inside; Laundry on upper level; Individual laundry room; Gas and electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $640k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-946 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $473k (26.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $425k (33.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $425k (33.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 3.8% in Winchester — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#992 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime B; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Romoland Elementary (suburban): math 35% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #699 of 1,400 in CA (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 355 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($133k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $68k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $64k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$110k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($602k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $424,920 (33.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.34%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.54×
• Total profit: $275,782
• Equity at exit: $576,473

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.67×
• Total profit: $837,208
• Equity at exit: $1,243,185

Cash invested: $179,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92596

• Home prices YoY: 3.9%
• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 355
• Price-to-rent: 12.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,249 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,356
• Tax from tax record: −$555 /mo · $6,657/yr
• Insurance: −$267
• HOA: −$126
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$892
• Net cashflow: $-946

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,447

Max offer price $472,754

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-584	-5% $-765	+0% $-946	+5% $-1,127	+10% $-1,308
Rent	-10% $-1,282	-5% $-1,114	+0% $-946	+5% $-778	+10% $-610
Rate	-1.0pp $-624	-0.5pp $-783	base $-946	+0.5pp $-1,112	+1.0pp $-1,281

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $159,975
• Closing costs: $19,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
31880 Corte Avila Menifee, CA	5.0	3.5	3056	$3,950	$1.29	19d	1	0.10mi
28872 Camino Santiago Unit MAIN HOME Winchester, CA	4.0	3.0	2446	$3,595	$1.47	11d	1	0.26mi
30540 Altima Ct Winchester, CA	5.0	3.0	1873	$3,300	$1.76	15d	1	0.32mi
31097 Linden Flower Rd Winchester, CA	4.0	3.5	2617	$7,500	$2.87	0d	1	0.47mi
29429 Cumaru Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1699	$3,349	$1.97	0d	1	1.02mi
29505 Bovenzi Way Winchester, CA	4.0	2.0	1754	$3,100	$1.77	15d	1	1.03mi
29424 Cumaru Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1771	$3,459	$1.95	21d	1	1.03mi
29430 Cumaru Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1699	$3,349	$1.97	8d	1	1.03mi
29471 Granadillo Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1699	$3,349	$1.97	21d	1	1.04mi
29472 Granadillo Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1699	$3,349	$1.97	21d	1	1.06mi
29467 Monterey Pine Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1771	$3,429	$1.94	21d	1	1.06mi
29474 Monterey Pine Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1699	$3,349	$1.97	8d	1	1.08mi
29475 Jack Pine Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1699	$3,269	$1.92	44d	1	1.09mi
29565 Tulipwood St Menifee, CA	4.0	3.0	2360	$3,500	$1.48	18d	1	1.29mi
29662 Courage Ct Menifee, CA	4.0	2.5	2399	$3,500	$1.46	0d	1	1.42mi
29555 Copper Hill Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1823	$3,195	$1.75	2d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $126 · $1,512/yr
• Likely covers: electricsecurity

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $639,900 Active 84 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $639,900 Active 83 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $639,900 Active 82 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $639,900 Active 81 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $639,900 Active 79 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $639,900 Active 75 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $639,900 Active 74 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $639,900 Active 73 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $639,900 Active 70 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $639,900 Active 69 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $639,900 Active 68 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $639,900 Active 67 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $639,900 Active 66 DOM
14. 2026-05-19
    price $644,990
15. 2026-04-22
    price $649,999
16. 2026-03-26
    listed $659,999 Active
17. 2025-04-25
    soldstatus $601,990 Closed Sale 1028-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1028 chars)

    NEW CONSTRUCTION in Winchester - SOLAR INCLUDED!! - This 2,384-sf home with a California Bungalow façade has a DOWNSTAIRS bedroom and full bathroom. Upstairs is the main bedroom with ensuite bathroom and generous size walk-in closet, 3 additional bedrooms and full bathroom, and a LARGE upstairs LOFT and laundry room! The Island kitchen has a breakfast bar, New Valle Nevado granite counters, built-in stainless-steel appliances and a pantry closet. The interior comes complete with Alto stained maple shaker-style cabinetry, lots of included recessed lighting throughout, plush carpet in bedrooms and closets and vinyl in main living areas! There is also a direct-access two car garage with EXTRA STORAGE AREA and PREPLUMBED for an electric car! This truly modern home has all the SmartHome features you would expect and, is FULLY LANDSCAPED AND IRRIGATED in the front yard. This community is situated close to park and freeway access. We anticipate an mid-April 2025 move-in and we can't wait to Welcome you Home!!

18. 2025-03-25
    status Pending Sale 1028-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1028 chars)

    NEW CONSTRUCTION in Winchester - SOLAR INCLUDED!! - This 2,384-sf home with a California Bungalow façade has a DOWNSTAIRS bedroom and full bathroom. Upstairs is the main bedroom with ensuite bathroom and generous size walk-in closet, 3 additional bedrooms and full bathroom, and a LARGE upstairs LOFT and laundry room! The Island kitchen has a breakfast bar, New Valle Nevado granite counters, built-in stainless-steel appliances and a pantry closet. The interior comes complete with Alto stained maple shaker-style cabinetry, lots of included recessed lighting throughout, plush carpet in bedrooms and closets and vinyl in main living areas! There is also a direct-access two car garage with EXTRA STORAGE AREA and PREPLUMBED for an electric car! This truly modern home has all the SmartHome features you would expect and, is FULLY LANDSCAPED AND IRRIGATED in the front yard. This community is situated close to park and freeway access. We anticipate an mid-April 2025 move-in and we can't wait to Welcome you Home!!

19. 2025-03-18
    price $599,990 1028-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1028 chars)

    NEW CONSTRUCTION in Winchester - SOLAR INCLUDED!! - This 2,384-sf home with a California Bungalow façade has a DOWNSTAIRS bedroom and full bathroom. Upstairs is the main bedroom with ensuite bathroom and generous size walk-in closet, 3 additional bedrooms and full bathroom, and a LARGE upstairs LOFT and laundry room! The Island kitchen has a breakfast bar, New Valle Nevado granite counters, built-in stainless-steel appliances and a pantry closet. The interior comes complete with Alto stained maple shaker-style cabinetry, lots of included recessed lighting throughout, plush carpet in bedrooms and closets and vinyl in main living areas! There is also a direct-access two car garage with EXTRA STORAGE AREA and PREPLUMBED for an electric car! This truly modern home has all the SmartHome features you would expect and, is FULLY LANDSCAPED AND IRRIGATED in the front yard. This community is situated close to park and freeway access. We anticipate an mid-April 2025 move-in and we can't wait to Welcome you Home!!

20. 2025-03-07
    listed $609,990 Active 1028-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1028 chars)

    NEW CONSTRUCTION in Winchester - SOLAR INCLUDED!! - This 2,384-sf home with a California Bungalow façade has a DOWNSTAIRS bedroom and full bathroom. Upstairs is the main bedroom with ensuite bathroom and generous size walk-in closet, 3 additional bedrooms and full bathroom, and a LARGE upstairs LOFT and laundry room! The Island kitchen has a breakfast bar, New Valle Nevado granite counters, built-in stainless-steel appliances and a pantry closet. The interior comes complete with Alto stained maple shaker-style cabinetry, lots of included recessed lighting throughout, plush carpet in bedrooms and closets and vinyl in main living areas! There is also a direct-access two car garage with EXTRA STORAGE AREA and PREPLUMBED for an electric car! This truly modern home has all the SmartHome features you would expect and, is FULLY LANDSCAPED AND IRRIGATED in the front yard. This community is situated close to park and freeway access. We anticipate an mid-April 2025 move-in and we can't wait to Welcome you Home!!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,657 · $555/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,657 · $555/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 64% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 14 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $50,990
• − Mortgage interest: −$35,844
• − Property taxes: −$6,657
• − Insurance: −$3,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,079
• − Management: −$4,079
• − HOA: −$1,512
• − Depreciation: −$18,615
• Taxable loss: −$22,996
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,519
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,835/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Romoland Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0633390
• Math proficiency: 35% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $58,935
• Composite: 37.36/100
• National rank: #8931
• State rank: #699 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Winchester

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #992
• US rank: #24750

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B Employment C Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• City population: 38,981
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 38,981
• Household income: $132,538
• Rent vs Own: 16.1% rent · 83.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 591.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 38% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 16% Asian 12% Black 6% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% Tagalog/Filipino 4% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.43%
• Current HPI: 332.169
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.79%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+5.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $644,990 CRMLS
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $649,999 CRMLS
• 2026-03-26 Listed $659,999 CRMLS
• 2025-04-25 Sold (MLS) $601,990 CRMLS
• 2025-03-25 Pending — CRMLS
• 2025-03-18 Price Changed $599,990 CRMLS
• 2025-03-07 Listed $609,990 CRMLS

Property tax history

+130.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,657 · +1106.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.