443 E Mitchell Ave #443 · Cheshire Village, CT 06410

$134,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 853 sqft · Condo · 55 Days on market

Built 1986 Fair condition $158/sqft · 20% below area Est $168k · 20% under $492/mo HOA · 25% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +9.7/10.0
• Schools +6.5/10.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Hillside Village, age restricted community 62+. One level living, 1 bedroom with an additional living space that could be used as a 2nd bedroom (no closet). Slider to patio and yard area, stackable washer/dryer. Condo fees include heat and hot water. Close to restaurants, shopping, public library, and highways. Sold in as is condition, needs work and updating.

Key facts

• $492 HOA
• Built 1986
• Listed 55 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $135k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $91 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $131k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 2.3% in Cheshire Village — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#29 in CT, #2,087 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• Cheshire School District (suburban): math 64% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #15 of 153 in CT (top 10%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 6% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 111 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 502 units permitted in Naugatuck Valley Planning Region in 2024 (171 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($145k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; HOA is 25% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 8→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $130,853 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.47% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.67%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $168,260
• List price: $134,900
• Delta: -19.83%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-15,675
• Equity at exit: $20,114

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-4,669
• Equity at exit: $11,664

Cash invested: $37,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Connecticut: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Strong tenant statutes; rent commissions in some towns; courts slow especially in cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 06410

• Active inventory: 111
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,989 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$707
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$169 /mo · $2,024/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$492
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $91

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,873

Max offer price $134,900

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,725
• Closing costs: $4,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
500 Oak Ave #21 Cheshire, CT	2.0	1.0	900	$1,800	$2.00	11d	1	1.25mi
135 Fairway Dr #135 Cheshire, CT	2.0	1.5	1052	$2,400	$2.28	3d	1	1.35mi
122 Country Club Rd Unit 122A Cheshire, CT	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,850	$1.85	43d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $492 · $5,904/yr
• Likely covers: water
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $134,900 Under Contract 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $134,900 Active 53 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $134,900 Active 52 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $134,900 Active 51 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $134,900 Active 50 DOM
6. 2026-04-30
   price $139,900 362-char remark

   Show marketing remark (362 chars)

   Hillside Village, age restricted community 62+. One level living, 1 bedroom with an additional living space that could be used as a 2nd bedroom (no closet). Slider to patio and yard area, stackable washer/dryer. Condo fees include heat and hot water. Close to restaurants, shopping, public library, and highways. Sold in as is condition, needs work and updating.

7. 2026-04-18
   price $144,900 362-char remark

   Show marketing remark (362 chars)

   Hillside Village, age restricted community 62+. One level living, 1 bedroom with an additional living space that could be used as a 2nd bedroom (no closet). Slider to patio and yard area, stackable washer/dryer. Condo fees include heat and hot water. Close to restaurants, shopping, public library, and highways. Sold in as is condition, needs work and updating.

8. 2026-04-11
   listed $149,900 Active 362-char remark

   Show marketing remark (362 chars)

   Hillside Village, age restricted community 62+. One level living, 1 bedroom with an additional living space that could be used as a 2nd bedroom (no closet). Slider to patio and yard area, stackable washer/dryer. Condo fees include heat and hot water. Close to restaurants, shopping, public library, and highways. Sold in as is condition, needs work and updating.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 77% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥98°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,866
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,556
• − Property taxes: −$2,024
• − Insurance: −$1,341
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,909
• − Management: −$1,909
• − HOA: −$5,904
• − Depreciation: −$3,924
• Taxable loss: −$702
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$169
• After-tax cash flow: $1,265/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The property requires moderate renovations, focusing on structural repairs and interior updates to improve its condition and value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Exposed concrete foundation — Structural issue requiring repair
• Major Uneven and cracked concrete walkway — Safety hazard and aesthetic issue

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replace carpet — Improves comfort and reduces maintenance
• Both Upgrade kitchen countertops — Enhances functionality and aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Exposed concrete foundation · Structural issue requiring repair	Major	$15,000–50,000
Uneven and cracked concrete walkway · Safety hazard and aesthetic issue	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$30,000–100,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace carpet — Improves comfort and reduces maintenance ↑
• Both Upgrade kitchen countertops — Enhances functionality and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cheshire School District
• NCES district ID: 0900750
• Math proficiency: 64% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 76% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $107,049
• Composite: 64.78/100
• National rank: #519
• State rank: #15 of 153 in CT

Livability — Cheshire Village

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #29
• US rank: #2087

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cheshire Village, CT
• County: New Haven County · 688,236 people
• City population: 28,792
• Metro: New Haven-Milford, CT
• Population (ZIP): 28,904
• Household income: $145,179
• Rent vs Own: 13.3% rent · 86.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 234.0

Population outlook (Naugatuck Valley County) Hauer SSP2

• By 2040: 496,846

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Two or more races 10% Asian 10% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 4% Scotch-Irish 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Chinese 4% Other Indo-European 3% Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Naugatuck Valley

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+7.4) · D 45.6% · R 53.0% · Other 1.4%
• All cycles: 2024: R+7.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -321.35%
• Current HPI: 244.0737
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New Haven-Milford, CT
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$38B
▸Insurance	3	$71B
▸Financial Services	2	$25B
▸Transportation / Logistics	2	$18B
▸Healthcare	1	$247B
▸Telecommunications	1	$55B

Price history

-6.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $139,900 Smart MLS
• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $144,900 Smart MLS
• 2026-04-11 Listed $149,900 Smart MLS