11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #286 · Surprise, AZ 85378

$39,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured · 180 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 1981 Average condition $38/sqft · 51% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +1.1/5.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -5.8

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to this charming 2-bedroom, 2-bath Cavco gem on a spacious corner lot! Built in 1981, this home blends timeless character with thoughtful updates—perfect for anyone who appreciates a touch of vintage charm. Step inside to a large living & dining area, featuring a built-in china hutch that adds classic elegance. The semi-open kitchen offers ample storage & flows perfectly for entertaining or quiet evenings at home. Fresh new carpet runs throughout the home—including the cozy, screened-in front deck that's ideal for enjoying your morning coffee or soaking up the beautiful Arizona weather year-round. This home has a new roof, a newer HVAC system, and updated ceiling fans in the bedrooms. All appliances stay, including refrigerator.

Key facts

• Built in china hutch
• Semi-open kitchen
• Corner lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• BUILT IN CHINA HUTCH
• SEMI-OPEN KITCHEN
• SCREENED-IN FRONT DECK
• NEW ROOF
• NEWER HVAC SYSTEM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $40k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $779 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $35k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 29.7% vs local median 3.3% in Surprise — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#19 in AZ, #4,616 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Dysart Unified District (4243) (suburban): math 34% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #73 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Thompson Ranch Elementary (math 17% / reading 24%, grade F, #729 of 1,109 statewide, top 67%, 716 students, 74% FRL); Valley Vista High School (math 25% / reading 32%, grade F, #133 of 381 statewide, top 35%, 2,464 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools average 59% FRL vs 41% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 24% at this address vs 37% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Dysart Unified District (4243) average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.5%/yr); 94 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 37d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 61% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $347 of equity ($276 loan paydown + $71 appreciation (0.2% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (0.2% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 180 days — a 12% lower offer ($35k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $8k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $35,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 180 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 29.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 83.66%
• DSCR: 4.72
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $81,225
• List price: $39,900
• Delta: -50.88%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #283	0.27mi	2/2.0	1,032 (-2%)	7mo	$74,000	$72	78
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #169	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,056 (0%)	20mo	$45,000	$43	77
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #23	0.27mi	2/2.0	1,173 (+11%)	7mo	$79,990	$68	63
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #125	0.44mi	2/2.0	1,040 (-2%)	17mo	$61,000	$59	63
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #75	0.44mi	2/2.0	1,152 (+9%)	8mo	$62,000	$54	58
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #5	0.44mi	2/2.0	922 (-13%)	11mo	$69,000	$75	49
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #243	0.44mi	2/2.0	1,203 (+14%)	9mo	$135,000	$112	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.18% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 82.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.02×
• Total profit: $44,882
• Equity at exit: $11,940

10-year hold

• IRR: 83.5%
• Equity multiple: 9.37×
• Total profit: $93,537
• Equity at exit: $14,638

Cash invested: $11,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 4 active · 1 under contract
• Months of supply: 8.0 mo (12%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $61,950 ($59/sqft)
• Median days on market: 91 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +31.1% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 85378

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Rents YoY: -5.5%
• Active inventory: 94
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,335 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$50 /mo · $598/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$280
• Net cashflow: $779

Break-even live

Break-even rent $349

Max offer price $39,900

Occupancy floor 37%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $806	-5% $793	+0% $779	+5% $765	+10% $751
Rent	-10% $673	-5% $726	+0% $779	+5% $832	+10% $884
Rate	-1.0pp $799	-0.5pp $789	base $779	+0.5pp $769	+1.0pp $758

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,975
• Closing costs: $1,197
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11417 W Amber Trl Sun City, AZ	3.0	2.0	1130	$1,750	$1.55	37d	1	0.40mi
11417 W Amber Trl Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1130	$1,750	$1.55	23d	1	0.40mi
11335 W Crestbrook Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1130	$1,705	$1.51	15d	1	0.46mi
11345 W Loma Blanca Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1368	$1,930	$1.41	93d	1	0.50mi
17447 Avenue of the Arts Unit 1 Surprise, AZ	1.0	1.0	782	$1,497	$1.91	73d	1	0.51mi
17447 Avenue of the Arts Unit 2 Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,732	$1.61	73d	1	0.51mi
17447 Avenue of the Arts Unit 3 Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1183	$1,822	$1.54	73d	1	0.51mi
17447 N Avenue of the Arts Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,837	$1.70	48d	1	0.56mi
17447 N Avenue of the Arts Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,813	$1.68	62d	1	0.56mi
17447 N Avenue of the Arts Surprise, AZ	1.0	1.0	782	$1,714	$2.19	64d	1	0.56mi
17447 N Avenue of the Arts Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,853	$1.72	17d	1	0.56mi
17447 N Avenue of the Arts Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1183	$1,981	$1.67	51d	1	0.56mi
17447 N Avenue of the Arts Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,828	$1.70	33d	1	0.56mi
17447 N Avenue of the Arts Surprise, AZ	1.0	1.0	782	$1,399	$1.79	2d	1	0.56mi
11476 W Madisen Ellise Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1301	$2,070	$1.59	93d	1	0.86mi
16520 N Greasewood St Surprise, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.5	1267	$1,695	$1.34	2d	17	1.09mi
15620 N El Mirage Rd Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	1310	$1,649	$1.26	9d	2	1.15mi
15427 N Jerry St Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.5	920	$1,450	$1.58	34d	1	1.25mi
15427 N Jerry St Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.5	920	$1,450	$1.58	23d	1	1.25mi
12741 W Tasha Dr Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.0	750	$1,250	$1.67	7d	1	1.36mi
11606 W Grapefruit Ct Surprise, AZ	3.0	1.0	1370	$1,795	$1.31	37d	1	1.39mi
11606 W Grapefruit Ct Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1370	$1,795	$1.31	27d	1	1.39mi
12817 W Cottonwood St Unit 1 Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.0	725	$1,300	$1.79	54d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $39,900 Active 180 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $39,900 Active 178 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $39,900 Active 177 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $39,900 Active 176 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $39,900 Active 175 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $39,900 Active 172 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $39,900 Active 170 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $39,900 Active 169 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $39,900 Active 167 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $39,900 Active 165 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $39,900 Active 164 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    price $39,900 Active 163 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $42,500 Active 163 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $42,500 Active 162 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $42,500 Active 161 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $42,500 Active 159 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $42,500 Active 158 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $42,500 Active 157 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $42,500 Active 156 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $42,500 Active 155 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $42,500 Active 154 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $42,500 Active 153 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $42,500 Active 152 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $42,500 Active 151 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $42,500 Active 150 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $42,500 Active 148 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $42,500 Active 147 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $42,500 Active 146 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $42,500 Active 145 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $42,500 Active 144 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $42,500 Active 143 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $42,500 Active 142 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $42,500 Active 141 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $42,500 Active 140 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $42,500 Active 139 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $42,500 Active 138 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $42,500 Active 137 DOM
38. 2026-06-24
    days on market $42,500 Active 135 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $42,500 Active 133 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $42,500 Active 132 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $42,500 Active 129 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $42,500 Active 128 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $42,500 Active 127 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $42,500 Active 126 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $42,500 Active 124 DOM
46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $42,500 Active 120 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $42,500 Active 119 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $42,500 Active 118 DOM
49. 2026-06-04
    days on market $42,500 Active 115 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $42,500 Active 114 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,020
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,235
• − Property taxes: −$598
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,282
• − Management: −$1,282
• − Depreciation: −$1,161
• Taxable income: $9,263
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,223
• After-tax cash flow: $7,124/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Average 55/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $5,280–$15,840 screening

This 2-bedroom, 2-bath Cavco home offers a good starting point for a cosmetic renovation, with a new roof and newer HVAC system. Enhancing the exterior and replacing the carpet would significantly boost its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate exterior siding — moderate wear
• Minor kitchen cabinets — dated design

Value-add opportunities

• Resale paint exterior — enhances curb appeal ↑
• Rental replace carpet — improves comfort and appearance ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 24/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Thompson Ranch Elementary F AZ #729/1,109 Nat'l #33,158/41,679 High Valley Vista High School F AZ #133/381 Nat'l #11,681/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dysart Unified District (4243)
• NCES district ID: 0402690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,033
• Composite: 32.76/100
• National rank: #5634
• State rank: #73 of 249 in AZ

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Surprise

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #4616

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Surprise, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,979,203 people
• City population: 160,031
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 9,765
• Household income: $56,444
• Rent vs Own: 38.0% rent · 62.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 9% of renters

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Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 17% Black 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Portuguese 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 22% Arabic 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.18%
• Current HPI: 287.1228
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.53%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-61.3% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $42,500 ARMLS
• 2026-02-09 Listed $47,500 ARMLS
• 2025-11-18 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2025-11-15 Pending — ARMLS
• 2025-11-15 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-10-17 Price Changed $47,500 ARMLS
• 2025-04-04 Listed $50,000 ARMLS
• 2025-02-14 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-01-03 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2025-01-03 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2024-10-01 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2024-08-28 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2024-07-29 Price Changed $75,000 ARMLS
• 2024-05-10 Price Changed $80,000 ARMLS
• 2024-02-22 Price Changed $85,000 ARMLS
• 2023-11-15 Price Changed $90,000 ARMLS
• 2023-08-23 Listed $95,000 ARMLS
• 2023-08-12 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2023-06-11 Price Changed $94,900 ARMLS
• 2023-05-18 Price Changed $97,400 ARMLS
• 2023-04-17 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2023-04-16 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2023-04-15 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2023-04-14 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2023-03-02 Price Changed $99,900 ARMLS
• 2023-01-16 Price Changed $107,400 ARMLS
• 2022-11-15 Listed $109,900 ARMLS