11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #286 · Surprise, AZ 85378

$42,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured · 132 Days on market

Built 1981 Average condition $40/sqft · 47% below area Est $81k · 47% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +1.1/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to this charming 2-bedroom, 2-bath Cavco gem on a spacious corner lot! Built in 1981, this home blends timeless character with thoughtful updates—perfect for anyone who appreciates a touch of vintage charm. Step inside to a large living & dining area, featuring a built-in china hutch that adds classic elegance. The semi-open kitchen offers ample storage & flows perfectly for entertaining or quiet evenings at home. Fresh new carpet runs throughout the home—including the cozy, screened-in front deck that's ideal for enjoying your morning coffee or soaking up the beautiful Arizona weather year-round. This home has a new roof, a newer HVAC system, and updated ceiling fans in the bedrooms. All appliances stay, including refrigerator.

Key facts

• Built in china hutch
• Semi-open kitchen
• Corner lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• BUILT IN CHINA HUTCH
• SEMI-OPEN KITCHEN
• SCREENED-IN FRONT DECK
• NEW ROOF
• NEWER HVAC SYSTEM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $42k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $42k).
• Recommended offer: $37k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 36.7% vs local median 3.3% in Surprise — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#19 in AZ, #4,616 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Dysart Unified District (4243) (suburban): math 34% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #73 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.5%/yr); 80 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $369 of equity ($294 loan paydown + $75 appreciation (0.2% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (0.2% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($37k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $37,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 36.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 108.73%
• DSCR: 5.84
• GRM: 2.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $80,946
• List price: $42,500
• Delta: -47.50%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #283	0.27mi	2/2.0	1,032 (-2%)	5mo	$74,000	$72	79
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #169	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,056 (0%)	18mo	$45,000	$43	79
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #23	0.27mi	2/2.0	1,173 (+11%)	5mo	$79,990	$68	64
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #125	0.44mi	2/2.0	1,040 (-2%)	15mo	$61,000	$59	64
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #75	0.44mi	2/2.0	1,152 (+9%)	6mo	$62,000	$54	59
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #5	0.44mi	2/2.0	922 (-13%)	9mo	$69,000	$75	51
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #243	0.44mi	2/2.0	1,203 (+14%)	7mo	$135,000	$112	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.18% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.27×
• Total profit: $62,721
• Equity at exit: $12,718

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 11.88×
• Total profit: $129,460
• Equity at exit: $15,592

Cash invested: $11,900 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85378

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Rents YoY: -5.5%
• Active inventory: 80
• Price-to-rent: 2.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,737 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$223
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$53 /mo · $638/yr
• Insurance: −$18
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$365
• Net cashflow: $1,078

Break-even live

Break-even rent $372

Max offer price $42,500

Occupancy floor 33%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,108	-5% $1,093	+0% $1,078	+5% $1,064	+10% $1,049
Rent	-10% $941	-5% $1,010	+0% $1,078	+5% $1,147	+10% $1,215
Rate	-1.0pp $1,100	-0.5pp $1,089	base $1,078	+0.5pp $1,067	+1.0pp $1,056

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,625
• Closing costs: $1,275
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11417 W Amber Trl Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1130	$1,750	$1.55	6d	1	0.40mi
11345 W Loma Blanca Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1368	$1,930	$1.41	44d	1	0.50mi
17447 Avenue of the Arts Unit 3 Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1183	$1,822	$1.54	25d	1	0.51mi
17447 Avenue of the Arts Unit 1 Surprise, AZ	1.0	1.0	782	$1,497	$1.91	25d	1	0.51mi
17447 Avenue of the Arts Unit 2 Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,732	$1.61	25d	1	0.51mi
17447 N Avenue of the Arts Surprise, AZ	1.0	1.0	782	$1,714	$2.19	16d	1	0.56mi
17447 N Avenue of the Arts Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1183	$1,981	$1.67	2d	1	0.56mi
17447 N Avenue of the Arts Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,813	$1.68	13d	1	0.56mi
17447 N Avenue of the Arts Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,837	$1.70	0d	1	0.56mi
11476 W Madisen Ellise Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1301	$2,070	$1.59	44d	1	0.86mi
16629 N Greasewood St Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.5	1052	$1,462	$1.39	3d	3	0.96mi
16520 N Greasewood St Surprise, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.5	1267	$1,695	$1.34	3d	17	1.09mi
15427 N Jerry St Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.5	920	$1,450	$1.58	6d	1	1.25mi
12741 W Tasha Dr Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.0	750	$1,275	$1.70	25d	1	1.36mi
12817 W Cottonwood St Unit 1 Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.0	725	$1,300	$1.79	6d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 41 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $42,500 Active 132 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $42,500 Active 129 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $42,500 Active 128 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $42,500 Active 127 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $42,500 Active 126 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $42,500 Active 124 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $42,500 Active 120 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $42,500 Active 119 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $42,500 Active 118 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $42,500 Active 115 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $42,500 Active 114 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $42,500 Active 113 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $42,500 Active 112 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $42,500 Active 111 DOM
15. 2026-04-14
    price $42,500 771-char remark

    Show marketing remark (771 chars)

    Welcome home to this charming 2-bedroom, 2-bath Cavco gem on a spacious corner lot! Built in 1981, this home blends timeless character with thoughtful updates—perfect for anyone who appreciates a touch of vintage charm. Step inside to a large living & dining area, featuring a built-in china hutch that adds classic elegance. The semi-open kitchen offers ample storage & flows perfectly for entertaining or quiet evenings at home. Fresh new carpet runs throughout the home—including the cozy, screened-in front deck that's ideal for enjoying your morning coffee or soaking up the beautiful Arizona weather year-round. This home has a new roof, a newer HVAC system, and updated ceiling fans in the bedrooms. All appliances stay, including refrigerator.

16. 2026-02-09
    listed $47,500 Active 771-char remark

    Show marketing remark (771 chars)

    Welcome home to this charming 2-bedroom, 2-bath Cavco gem on a spacious corner lot! Built in 1981, this home blends timeless character with thoughtful updates—perfect for anyone who appreciates a touch of vintage charm. Step inside to a large living & dining area, featuring a built-in china hutch that adds classic elegance. The semi-open kitchen offers ample storage & flows perfectly for entertaining or quiet evenings at home. Fresh new carpet runs throughout the home—including the cozy, screened-in front deck that's ideal for enjoying your morning coffee or soaking up the beautiful Arizona weather year-round. This home has a new roof, a newer HVAC system, and updated ceiling fans in the bedrooms. All appliances stay, including refrigerator.

17. 2025-11-18
    status Active
18. 2025-11-15
    status Pending
19. 2025-11-15
    historical
20. 2025-10-17
    price $47,500
21. 2025-04-04
    listed $50,000 Active
22. 2025-02-14
    historical
23. 2025-01-03
    status Active
24. 2025-01-03
    historical
25. 2024-10-01
    status Active
26. 2024-08-28
    historical Contract Contingent on Buyer Sale
27. 2024-07-29
    price $75,000
28. 2024-05-10
    price $80,000
29. 2024-02-22
    price $85,000
30. 2023-11-15
    price $90,000
31. 2023-08-23
    listed $95,000 Active
32. 2023-08-12
    historical
33. 2023-06-11
    price $94,900
34. 2023-05-18
    price $97,400
35. 2023-04-17
    status Active
36. 2023-04-16
    historical
37. 2023-04-15
    status Active
38. 2023-04-14
    historical
39. 2023-03-02
    price $99,900
40. 2023-01-16
    price $107,400
41. 2022-11-15
    listed $109,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,839
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,381
• − Property taxes: −$638
• − Insurance: −$212
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,667
• − Management: −$1,667
• − Depreciation: −$1,236
• Taxable income: $13,038
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,129
• After-tax cash flow: $9,810/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Average 55/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2-bedroom, 2-bath Cavco home offers a good starting point for a cosmetic renovation, with a new roof and newer HVAC system. Enhancing the exterior and replacing the carpet would significantly boost its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate exterior siding — moderate wear
• Minor kitchen cabinets — dated design

Value-add opportunities

• Resale paint exterior — enhances curb appeal
• Rental replace carpet — improves comfort and appearance

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · moderate wear	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
kitchen cabinets · dated design	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$3,500–18,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale paint exterior — enhances curb appeal ↑
• Rental replace carpet — improves comfort and appearance ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dysart Unified District (4243)
• NCES district ID: 0402690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,033
• Composite: 32.76/100
• National rank: #5634
• State rank: #73 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Surprise

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #4616

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Surprise, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 160,031
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 9,765
• Household income: $56,444
• Rent vs Own: 38.0% rent · 62.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 510.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 17% Black 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Portuguese 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 22% Arabic 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.18%
• Current HPI: 287.1228
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.53%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-61.3% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $42,500 ARMLS
• 2026-02-09 Listed $47,500 ARMLS
• 2025-11-18 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2025-11-15 Pending — ARMLS
• 2025-11-15 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-10-17 Price Changed $47,500 ARMLS
• 2025-04-04 Listed $50,000 ARMLS
• 2025-02-14 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-01-03 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2025-01-03 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2024-10-01 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2024-08-28 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2024-07-29 Price Changed $75,000 ARMLS
• 2024-05-10 Price Changed $80,000 ARMLS
• 2024-02-22 Price Changed $85,000 ARMLS
• 2023-11-15 Price Changed $90,000 ARMLS
• 2023-08-23 Listed $95,000 ARMLS
• 2023-08-12 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2023-06-11 Price Changed $94,900 ARMLS
• 2023-05-18 Price Changed $97,400 ARMLS
• 2023-04-17 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2023-04-16 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2023-04-15 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2023-04-14 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2023-03-02 Price Changed $99,900 ARMLS
• 2023-01-16 Price Changed $107,400 ARMLS
• 2022-11-15 Listed $109,900 ARMLS