51 4th St · Rochester, NY 14609

$69,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,532 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1910 3,920 sqft lot Est $138k · 49% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.5/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investor Special! This 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath, 1,532 sq. ft. home presents a strong value-add opportunity tucked into a quiet pocket of the South Marketview Heights / Beechwood neighborhood. Conveniently located just minutes from the Rochester Public Market, Village Gate, and a wide selection of popular restaurants and bars. With the right vision and finishing touches, this property is well on its way to completion, ideal for investors seeking a straightforward fix-and-flip, a solid addition to a rental portfolio, or an owner-occupant ready to build equity. The first floor features a spacious kitchen, living room, and formal dining area, along with a convenient half bath. Upstairs offers three

Key facts

• Spacious kitchen
• Formal dining area
• 3,920 sq ft lot

Tags

• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• FORMAL DINING AREA
• FULL UNFINISHED ATTIC
• VINYL REPLACEMENT WINDOWS
• LOW-MAINTENANCE VINYL SIDING
• AMPLE OFF-STREET PARKING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• Cap rate 25.1% vs local median 9.3% in Rochester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#222 in NY, #3,482 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, employment F.
• Rochester City School District (urban): math 21% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #589 of 590 in NY (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.9%/yr); 199 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,169 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (591 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $483 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.9% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $69,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.79% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 67.31%
• DSCR: 3.99
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $137,880
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
699 N Goodman St	0.29mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,548 (+1%)	3mo	$110,000	$71	75
128 5th St	0.36mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,606 (+5%)	2mo	$62,000	$39	66
188 5th St	0.44mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,576 (+3%)	3mo	$65,500	$42	65
74 Copeland St	0.65mi	3/1.0	1,482 (-3%)	4mo	$147,500	$100	59
414 Garson Ave	0.49mi	3/1.0	1,418 (-7%)	4mo	$175,000	$123	59
155 3rd St	0.38mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,392 (-9%)	2mo	$67,500	$48	58
322 Grand Ave	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,555 (+2%)	2mo	$139,200	$90	57
442 Hayward Ave	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,746 (+14%)	4mo	$189,900	$109	55
275 Parsells Ave	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,662 (+8%)	3mo	$207,000	$125	47
54 Rosewood	0.67mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,366 (-11%)	3mo	$93,000	$68	43
67 Keller St	0.74mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,368 (-11%)	5mo	$139,900	$102	37
35 Council St	0.66mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,745 (+14%)	4mo	$90,000	$52	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.89% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 72.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.51×
• Total profit: $68,686
• Equity at exit: $10,422

10-year hold

• IRR: 77.3%
• Equity multiple: 11.00×
• Total profit: $195,668
• Equity at exit: $6,044

Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14609

• Home prices YoY: -30.4%
• Rents YoY: 7.9%
• Active inventory: 199
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,953 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$50 /mo · $596/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $1,098

Break-even live

Break-even rent $564

Max offer price $69,900

Occupancy floor 39%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,137	-5% $1,118	+0% $1,098	+5% $1,078	+10% $1,058
Rent	-10% $944	-5% $1,021	+0% $1,098	+5% $1,175	+10% $1,252
Rate	-1.0pp $1,133	-0.5pp $1,116	base $1,098	+0.5pp $1,080	+1.0pp $1,061

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,475
• Closing costs: $2,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1 Champeney Ter Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1936	$1,650	$0.85	15d	1	0.30mi
147 5th St Rochester, NY	4.0	1.0	1289	$1,950	$1.51	21d	1	0.40mi
395 Alexander St Unit UN12 Rochester, NY	2.0	1.5	1226	$2,200	$1.79	15d	1	0.51mi
126 Parsells Ave Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1574	$1,800	$1.14	21d	1	0.53mi
126 Parsells Ave Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1574	$1,800	$1.14	44d	1	0.53mi
21 Rundel Park Unit 2 Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	1250	$2,099	$1.68	19d	1	0.63mi
733 University Ave #3 Rochester, NY	3.0	1.5	1400	$1,850	$1.32	44d	1	0.63mi
195 Parsells Ave Rochester, NY	4.0	1.0	1413	$1,265	$0.90	3d	1	0.63mi
52 Frances St Rochester, NY	4.0	1.0	1256	$1,595	$1.27	44d	1	0.65mi
474 East Ave Rochester, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1125	$2,800	$2.49	24d	1	0.70mi
200 East Ave Rochester, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	936	$2,481	$2.65	44d	1	0.80mi
933 University Ave Rochester, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1295	$3,815	$2.94	3d	12	0.82mi
47 Priscilla St Rochester, NY	4.0	1.5	1250	$1,900	$1.52	21d	1	0.82mi
15 Vick Park B Unit A Rochester, NY	2.0	1.5	1616	$2,350	$1.45	24d	1	0.90mi
21 Arnold Park Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	750	$1,425	$1.90	3d	15	0.91mi
256 Oxford St Unit 1 Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	2050	$3,000	$1.46	15d	1	0.95mi
260 Oxford St Unit UP Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	1850	$2,600	$1.41	44d	1	0.96mi
108 Bowman St Unit 1 Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	44d	1	0.98mi
459-461 Parsells Ave Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	1053	$1,450	$1.38	24d	1	1.00mi
14 Franklin St Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	1345	$3,477	$2.59	3d	8	1.02mi
127 Carter St #125 Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	1320	$1,400	$1.06	44d	1	1.03mi
209 S Goodman St Rochester, NY	2.0	2.0	1500	$1,700	$1.13	44d	1	1.03mi
260 E Main St Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0–2.0	1144	$2,999	$2.62	3d	14	1.07mi
811 Portland Ave Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	1616	$1,300	$0.80	15d	1	1.17mi
1159 Culver Rd Unit A2 UP Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1313	$1,500	$1.14	44d	1	1.18mi
207 Lux St Rochester, NY	4.0	1.5	1728	$2,150	$1.24	11d	1	1.18mi
183 E Main St Rochester, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	1142	$2,870	$2.51	11d	28	1.19mi
420 Rosewood Ter Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1246	$1,300	$1.04	3d	1	1.19mi
80 St Paul St Rochester, NY	1.0–2.0	1.5–2.5	1024	$1,935	$1.89	3d	3	1.24mi
500 Oxford St #1 Rochester, NY	2.0	2.0	1400	$1,800	$1.29	44d	1	1.29mi
176 Roycroft Dr Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1169	$950	$0.81	11d	1	1.29mi
294 Barrington St Rochester, NY	2.0	1.5	1131	$1,750	$1.55	44d	1	1.30mi
36 Morningside Park Rochester, NY	4.0	1.0	1446	$2,400	$1.66	3d	1	1.32mi
102 Court St Rochester, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	952	$2,570	$2.70	3d	11	1.33mi
30 Boardman St #1 Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,600	$1.52	44d	1	1.40mi
326 Northland Ave Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1168	$1,500	$1.28	3d	1	1.40mi
463 Averill Ave Unit 451 Averill Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	1352	$1,695	$1.25	21d	1	1.41mi
171 Mohawk St Rochester, NY	3.0	2.0	1054	$1,775	$1.68	44d	1	1.41mi
214 Culver Rd Apt 2 Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1700	$2,400	$1.41	15d	1	1.42mi
451 Averill Ave Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	1352	$1,695	$1.25	3d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-13
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-04-08
   listed $69,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $596 · $50/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $889 · $74/mo
• Expected delta: +$293/yr (+$24/mo · 49.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,441
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,915
• − Property taxes: −$596
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,875
• − Management: −$1,875
• − Depreciation: −$2,033
• Taxable income: $12,796
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,071
• After-tax cash flow: $10,103/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rochester City School District
• NCES district ID: 3624750
• Math proficiency: 21% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $30,923
• Composite: 18.98/100
• National rank: #8850
• State rank: #589 of 590 in NY

Livability — Rochester

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #3482

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rochester, NY
• County: Monroe County · 674,131 people
• City population: 432,803
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• Population (ZIP): 40,274
• Household income: $64,603
• Rent vs Own: 36.1% rent · 63.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2183.0

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 759,460 people
• By 2030: 757,154 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 740,644 · -2.5%
• By 2050: 714,443 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 645,883 · -15.0%
• By 2100: 547,084 · -28.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Black 28% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 15% Cuban 1% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 14% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: D (+19.1) · D 59.5% · R 40.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.4pp toward D · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 19.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.1 2020: D+21.0 2016: D+14.1 2012: D+17.4 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -143.57%
• Current HPI: 328.7053
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.89%
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-04-13 Contingent — UNYREIS
• 2026-04-08 Listed $69,900 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+28.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $596 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.