238 Dawn Way · Banning, CA 92220

$249,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 820 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1980 4,356 sqft lot Est $266k · 7% under $9/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Delightful home in a quiet peaceful neighborhood for residents aged 55 and over! Excellent location near stores, restaurants, medical offices and hospital. Fenced backyard. Occupied by a long-time Sec 8 tenant, monthly rental income $790 a month.

Key facts

• Fenced backyard
• 4,356 sq ft lot
• Garage

Tags

• FENCED BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Part of Peacock Valley homeowners association; Annual association fee of $108; Senior community; Community has street lighting

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 1 garage space (1 total parking space)
• Utilities: Public sewer; District/Public water
• Home design: House; Single-story; Attached property; No ADU
• Construction: Year built from assessor; 1 total unit
• Exterior features: Front and back yard; Level/flat lot; No pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (details not specified)
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level; Primary bedroom
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central furnace; Cooling available (see remarks)
• Interior features: One-level home; Main-level entry; Has a view; One common wall (attached property)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside the unit

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $30 ($356/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $194k (22.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $194k (22.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.0% in Banning — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 48/100 on livability (#1,192 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing B+; Watch: crime C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Beaumont Unified (suburban): math 32% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #168 of 517 in CA (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 312 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($245k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $249k implies a 256% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $194,132 (22.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.51%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $266,500
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
233 Janan Ct	0.02mi	2/1.0	820 (0%)	8mo	$283,000	$345	93
158 Beverly	0.11mi	2/1.0	831 (+1%)	0mo	$270,000	$325	92
5464 Evelyn Dr	0.04mi	2/1.0	851 (+4%)	2mo	$275,000	$323	90
204 Beverly Dr	0.10mi	2/1.0	820 (0%)	8mo	$270,000	$329	88
5360 Evelyn Dr	0.09mi	2/1.0	832 (+2%)	7mo	$275,000	$331	88
178 Clair Ct	0.15mi	2/1.0	820 (0%)	9mo	$295,000	$360	86
5406 Ellen Way	0.07mi	2/1.0	831 (+1%)	11mo	$290,000	$349	85
217 Beverly	0.07mi	2/1.0	891 (+9%)	1mo	$270,000	$303	81
377 Marian Way	0.11mi	2/1.0	820 (0%)	18mo	$245,000	$299	80
178 Janan Ct	0.06mi	2/1.0	891 (+9%)	7mo	$250,000	$281	77
234 Beverly Dr	0.10mi	2/1.0	891 (+9%)	8mo	$270,000	$303	74
181 Leslie Ct	0.17mi	2/1.0	891 (+9%)	11mo	$270,000	$303	69

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.58% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-37,422
• Equity at exit: $37,127

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-25,842
• Equity at exit: $21,529

Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92220

• Rents YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 312
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,941 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax from tax record: −$85 /mo · $1,025/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$9
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$408
• Net cashflow: $30

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,904

Max offer price $249,000

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,250
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5464 Evelyn Dr Banning, CA	2.0	1.0	851	$1,900	$2.23	43d	1	0.02mi
5464 Evelyn Dr Banning, CA	2.0	1.0	851	$1,900	$2.23	15d	1	0.02mi
228 Janan Ct Banning, CA	2.0	1.0	1100	$2,100	$1.91	1d	1	0.07mi
5001 W Wilson St Unit 103 Banning, CA	1.0	1.0	751	$1,600	$2.13	1d	1	0.37mi
5001 W Wilson St Unit 227 Banning, CA	2.0	1.0	833	$1,700	$2.04	2d	1	0.37mi
3911 W Ramsey St Unit 204 Banning, CA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,650	$2.06	5d	1	1.03mi
1498 E 6th St Unit 4 Beaumont, CA	1.0	1.0	675	$1,500	$2.22	18d	1	1.05mi
3880 W Jacinto View Rd Unit A Banning, CA	2.0	2.0	780	$1,395	$1.79	24d	1	1.05mi
3860 W Jacinto View Rd Unit R Banning, CA	1.0	1.0	594	$1,100	$1.85	43d	1	1.08mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $9 · $108/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,000 Active 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,000 Active 18 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,000 Active 17 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,000 Active 16 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,000 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $249,000 Active 13 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $254,000 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $254,000 Active 9 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $254,000 Active 8 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    pricedays on market $254,000 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $259,000 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $259,000 Active 3 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $259,000 Active 2 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    remarks 247-char remark
15. 2026-05-31
    listed $259,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,025 · $85/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,892 · $158/mo
• Expected delta: +$868/yr (+$72/mo · 84.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 18 unhealthy d/yr today · 23 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,296
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$1,025
• − Insurance: −$1,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,864
• − Management: −$1,864
• − HOA: −$108
• − Depreciation: −$7,244
• Taxable loss: −$4,001
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$960
• After-tax cash flow: $1,317/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Beaumont Unified
• NCES district ID: 0604290
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $60,635
• Composite: 40.37/100
• National rank: #3736
• State rank: #168 of 517 in CA

Livability — Banning

• Score: 48/100
• State rank: #1192
• US rank: #26047

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C- Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Banning, CA
• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• City population: 33,755
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 33,755
• Household income: $62,599
• Rent vs Own: 29.1% rent · 70.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1146.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 35% Two or more races 21% Black 6% Asian 5% Native American 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 44%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Romanian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 29% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -343.32%
• Current HPI: 342.4268
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.58%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-69.9% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Listed $259,000 CRMLS
• 2004-12-25 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2004-11-30 Listed $120,000 CRMLS
• 2003-09-26 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 1991-12-13 Sold (Public Records) $1,000 Public Records
• 1991-10-29 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records
• 1991-10-29 Sold (Public Records) $3,500 Public Records
• 1991-10-22 Sold (Public Records) $40,500 Public Records
• 1989-06-23 Sold (Public Records) $75,900 Public Records
• 1989-05-26 Sold (Public Records) $36,500 Public Records
• 1989-01-06 Sold (Public Records) $36,500 Public Records
• 1988-10-04 Sold (Public Records) $36,500 Public Records
• 1988-08-29 Sold (Public Records) $19,680 Public Records
• 1988-08-02 Sold (Public Records) $22,500 Public Records
• 1988-06-23 Sold (Public Records) $75,500 Public Records
• 1988-05-27 Sold (Public Records) $860,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,025 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.