200 Rogers Ave · Henderson, TX 75654

$168,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,937 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1940 0.44 ac lot Est $263k · 36% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Right in the middle of town yet tucked away on a peaceful dead end street, this property offers space, convenience, and flexibility. The main home features 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, and a double carport with an attached covered work area. On the double lot sits a 768 sq ft climate controlled building with a kitchenette, bathroom with laundry, and two bonus rooms—perfect for a home business, studio, guest quarters, or extra storage. Property has Solar panels and they will be paid at closing

Key facts

• Double lot
• Solar panels
• 0.44 acre lot

Tags

• CLIMATE CONTROLLED BUILDING
• DOUBLE LOT
• ATTACHED COVERED WORK AREA
• SOLAR PANELS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached gravel garage; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Wood fencing; Composition roof; Approximately 0.44-acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Electric heating; Central air conditioning; Window unit(s)
• Interior features: Wood-burning fireplace (1); Storage structure on property; Total of 9 rooms
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $168k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-166 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $139k (17.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $124k (26.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $124k (26.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 2.9% in Henderson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#408 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, schools D-, crime F.
• Henderson ISD (town): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #573 of 826 in TX (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 177 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Rusk County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Rusk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 68% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $124,386 (26.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.23%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $263,432
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1119 S Main St	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,652 (-15%)	8mo	$224,000	$136	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.72×
• Total profit: $80,952
• Equity at exit: $151,348

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.24×
• Total profit: $246,714
• Equity at exit: $326,387

Cash invested: $47,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75654

• Home prices YoY: 7.8%
• Active inventory: 177
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,244 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$881
• Tax from tax record: −$197 /mo · $2,369/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$261
• Net cashflow: $-166

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,454

Max offer price $138,722

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,000
• Closing costs: $5,040
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $168,000 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $168,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $168,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $168,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $168,000 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 489-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $168,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,369 · $197/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,074 · $256/mo
• Expected delta: +$706/yr (+$59/mo · 29.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 68% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,926
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,411
• − Property taxes: −$2,369
• − Insurance: −$840
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,194
• − Management: −$1,194
• − Depreciation: −$4,887
• Taxable loss: −$4,968
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,192
• After-tax cash flow: $-796/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Henderson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4822970
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $46,296
• Composite: 27.91/100
• National rank: #6868
• State rank: #573 of 826 in TX

Livability — Henderson

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #408
• US rank: #8434

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Henderson, TX
• Population (ZIP): 12,184

Population outlook (Rusk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 52,498 people
• By 2030: 52,093 · -0.8%
• By 2040: 50,866 · -3.1%
• By 2050: 49,696 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 48,583 · -7.5%
• By 2100: 43,265 · -17.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 16% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 18%

Political lean MEDSL · Rusk

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+59.4) · D 20.0% · R 79.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.2pp toward R · 2008: -46.3pp · 2024: -59.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+59.4 2020: R+55.7 2016: R+56.5 2012: R+51.1 2008: R+46.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 28.83%
• Current HPI: 397.5
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $168,000 GTAR
• 2026-06-12 Listed $168,000 LAAR
• 2022-01-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2008-04-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-08-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1998-05-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,369 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.