22965 Johnson Rd · Amelia Court House, VA 23083

$50,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 864 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 2011 3.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.6/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This singlewide is tucked on a private knoll. The land was part of a family subdivision. The driveway is beside house #23001. Home is clean and ready for the next owner. Great first time buyer or investor home. Enjoy the proximity to Amelia Courthouse, Farmville or Midlothian. Great price for a move-in ready home.

Key facts

• 3 acre lot
• Built 2011

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $672 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Cap rate 22.4% vs local median 2.5% in Amelia Court House — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#329 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: housing D, amenities F, commute F.
• Amelia County Public School District (rural): math 44% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #83 of 131 in VA (top 63%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 60 units permitted in Amelia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($346 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.1% local appreciation)).
• Amelia County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $50k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $50,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 57.64%
• DSCR: 3.56
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.11% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 62.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.51×
• Total profit: $49,141
• Equity at exit: $22,804

10-year hold

• IRR: 62.1%
• Equity multiple: 9.18×
• Total profit: $114,535
• Equity at exit: $35,396

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23083

• Home prices YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 22
• Price-to-rent: 3.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,227 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$14 /mo · $164/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$258
• Net cashflow: $672

Break-even live

Break-even rent $376

Max offer price $50,000

Occupancy floor 40%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-02-25
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-25
   listed $50,000 Active
3. 2014-06-30
   soldstatus $25,000 315-char remark

   Show marketing remark (315 chars)

   This singlewide is tucked on a private knoll. The land was part of a family subdivision. The driveway is beside house #23001. Home is clean and ready for the next owner. Great first time buyer or investor home. Enjoy the proximity to Amelia Courthouse, Farmville or Midlothian. Great price for a move-in ready home.

4. 2014-06-30
   soldstatus $25,000 315-char remark

   Show marketing remark (315 chars)

   This singlewide is tucked on a private knoll. The land was part of a family subdivision. The driveway is beside house #23001. Home is clean and ready for the next owner. Great first time buyer or investor home. Enjoy the proximity to Amelia Courthouse, Farmville or Midlothian. Great price for a move-in ready home.

5. 2014-06-10
   listed $25,500 315-char remark

   Show marketing remark (315 chars)

   This singlewide is tucked on a private knoll. The land was part of a family subdivision. The driveway is beside house #23001. Home is clean and ready for the next owner. Great first time buyer or investor home. Enjoy the proximity to Amelia Courthouse, Farmville or Midlothian. Great price for a move-in ready home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $164 · $14/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $410 · $34/mo
• Expected delta: +$246/yr (+$20/mo · 149.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 12% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,721
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$164
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,178
• − Management: −$1,178
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $7,696
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,847
• After-tax cash flow: $6,222/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Amelia County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100180
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -42.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $53,185
• Composite: 46.33/100
• National rank: #2468
• State rank: #83 of 131 in VA

Livability — Amelia Court House

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #329
• US rank: #12495

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing D Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,384

Population outlook (Amelia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 12,928 people
• By 2030: 12,819 · -0.8%
• By 2040: 12,381 · -4.2%
• By 2050: 11,607 · -10.2%
• By 2075: 10,186 · -21.2%
• By 2100: 9,067 · -29.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Black 13% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 7% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Amelia

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.4) · D 27.6% · R 71.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.7pp toward R · 2008: -22.7pp · 2024: -44.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.4 2020: R+37.7 2016: R+36.3 2012: R+26.7 2008: R+22.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.11%
• Current HPI: 184.6872
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+96.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-25 Pending — SCAR
• 2026-02-25 Listed $50,000 SCAR
• 2014-06-30 Sold (MLS) $25,000 SCAR
• 2014-06-30 Sold (MLS) $25,000 CVRMLS
• 2014-06-10 Listed $25,500 CVRMLS

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $164 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.