6876 Lone Oak Blvd · Pelican Marsh, FL 34109

$619,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,701 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 142 Days on market

Built 1996 6,969 sqft lot $340/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lovingly maintained by the original owner, this lakefront residence features spacious rooms, high ceilings, extended lanai with brick pavers and beautiful landscaping, eat-in kitchen with Corian counters and tons of cupboard space, master bedroom offers 2 walk-in closets, beautiful window treatments, a real pleasure to show!

Key facts

• Open concept design
• Lakefront rental
• 10 foot ceilings

Tags

• LAKEFRONT RENTAL
• OPEN CONCEPT DESIGN
• 10 FOOT CEILINGS
• WELL APPOINTED KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Pets allowed
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with quarterly fees; Association fees include cable TV and internet; Community amenities: clubhouse, sidewalks, tennis court(s); Non-gated community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable not available
• Home design: Single-story; Resale property; Faces west
• Construction: Block and concrete construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Irregular lot; Paved road; Lakefront; East exposures; Has view

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Disposal; Pantry
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom (10 x 15)
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric); Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Furnished; Eat-in kitchen; Living/Dining room; Pantry; Bedroom on main level; See remarks
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry inside; Tankless water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $619k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-355 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $556k (10.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $494k (20.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $494k (20.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Pelican Marsh Elementary School (math 87% / reading 83%, grade A+, #35 of 2,144 statewide, top 2%, 709 students, 29% FRL); Pine Ridge Middle School (math 74% / reading 70%, grade A, #52 of 571 statewide, top 10%, 832 students, 31% FRL); Barron Collier High School (math 62% / reading 68%, grade B, #76 of 667 statewide, top 11%, 1,650 students, 26% FRL) — zoned schools average 29% FRL vs 55% district-wide (26 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 74% at this address vs 58% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Collier average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 424 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,942/mo this rent would consume 64% of the median local household income ($92k/yr) (locally 1712% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (0.3% local appreciation)).
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 142 days — a 12% lower offer ($545k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $250k; list at $619k implies a 148% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $494,157 (20.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 142 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
8. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
9. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.46%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.29% appreciation · 0.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-42,132
• Equity at exit: $188,920

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-14,312
• Equity at exit: $234,553

Cash invested: $173,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34109

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 424
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,942 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,246
• Tax from tax record: −$414 /mo · $4,973/yr
• Insurance: −$258
• HOA: −$340
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,038
• Net cashflow: $-355

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,390

Max offer price $556,356

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-4	-5% $-179	+0% $-355	+5% $-530	+10% $-705
Rent	-10% $-745	-5% $-550	+0% $-355	+5% $-159	+10% $36
Rate	-1.0pp $-43	-0.5pp $-197	base $-355	+0.5pp $-515	+1.0pp $-678

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $154,750
• Closing costs: $18,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7030 Lone Oak Blvd Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1700	$6,400	$3.76	15d	1	0.24mi
2611 Citrus Lake Dr Unit C-203 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1710	$5,500	$3.22	15d	1	0.29mi
2651 Citrus Lake Dr Unit D302 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1250	$5,000	$4.00	15d	1	0.30mi
2671 Citrus Lake Dr Unit E-201 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1380	$5,250	$3.80	15d	1	0.32mi
2671 Citrus Lake Dr Unit E-303 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1380	$3,500	$2.54	15d	1	0.32mi
2711 Citrus Lake Dr Unit F302 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1272	$4,500	$3.54	15d	1	0.32mi
2711 Citrus Lake Dr Unit F305 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1480	$5,500	$3.72	15d	1	0.32mi
2731 Citrus Lake Dr #202 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1260	$2,500	$1.98	15d	1	0.33mi
2541 Citrus Lake Dr Unit A-205 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1590	$5,250	$3.30	15d	1	0.33mi
2277 Arbour Walk Cir Naples, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	937	$2,540	$2.71	15d	25	0.37mi
6654 Tannin Ln Unit B Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1441	$3,100	$2.15	25d	1	0.38mi
2860 Citrus Lake Dr Unit R202 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1590	$5,000	$3.14	25d	1	0.42mi
2860 Citrus Lake Dr Unit R-202 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1590	$5,000	$3.14	15d	1	0.42mi
7287 Mill Pond Cir Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1355	$3,800	$2.80	25d	1	0.44mi
13379 Silktail Dr Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1837	$4,400	$2.40	25d	1	0.44mi
2880 Citrus Lake Dr Unit Q201 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1590	$2,495	$1.57	15d	1	0.44mi
3035 Horizon Ln #2206 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1246	$6,000	$4.82	25d	1	0.45mi
13423 Silktail Dr Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1831	$2,200	$1.20	25d	1	0.45mi
7271 Mill Pond Cir Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1700	$8,250	$4.85	25d	1	0.46mi
13435 Silktail Dr Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1837	$8,950	$4.87	25d	1	0.46mi
13441 Coronado Dr Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1837	$10,000	$5.44	25d	1	0.47mi
3048 Horizon Ln #1104 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1818	$5,150	$2.83	25d	1	0.48mi
3051 Horizon Ln #1803 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1482	$5,100	$3.44	25d	1	0.49mi
13466 Sumter Ln Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1837	$8,700	$4.74	25d	1	0.51mi
2602 Fountain View Cir Naples, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	995	$2,277	$2.29	15d	41	0.51mi
2885 Citrus Lake Dr Unit N103 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1249	$5,250	$4.20	15d	1	0.52mi
2608 Sailors Way #122 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1387	$5,500	$3.97	25d	1	0.52mi
7710 Ahoy Ave Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1580	$2,950	$1.87	25d	1	0.53mi
2730 Sailors Way Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	1700	$9,000	$5.29	25d	1	0.53mi
2864 Mizzen Way Unit Y106 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1350	$5,200	$3.85	15d	1	0.55mi
3015 Horizon Ln #2702 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1399	$1,790	$1.28	25d	1	0.57mi
2835 Mizzen Way Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1641	$2,900	$1.77	25d	1	0.58mi
7416 Plumbago Bridge Rd #103 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1223	$2,400	$1.96	15d	1	0.60mi
2476 Orchid Bay Dr Unit W201 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1928	$2,600	$1.35	15d	1	0.63mi
3009 Driftwood Way #2802 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1399	$2,000	$1.43	25d	1	0.65mi
7546 Mill Pond Cir Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1373	$6,500	$4.73	25d	1	0.66mi
2460 Old Groves Rd Unit E102 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1226	$2,400	$1.96	15d	1	0.68mi
3017 Driftwood Way #3001 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1385	$5,000	$3.61	25d	1	0.69mi
3062 Driftwood Way #4301 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1573	$6,500	$4.13	25d	1	0.69mi
3057 Driftwood Way #4004 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1818	$6,400	$3.52	25d	1	0.70mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $340 · $4,080/yr
• Likely covers: landscaping

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $619,000 Active 142 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $619,000 Active 139 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $619,000 Active 138 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $619,000 Active 137 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $619,000 Active 136 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $619,000 Active 134 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $619,000 Active 131 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $619,000 Active 130 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $619,000 Active 129 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $619,000 Active 128 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $619,000 Active 124 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $619,000 Active 123 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $619,000 Active 122 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $619,000 Active 121 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $619,000 Active 120 DOM
16. 2026-04-30
    status Active
17. 2026-04-21
    status Pending
18. 2026-03-09
    price $619,000
19. 2026-02-03
    price $639,000
20. 2026-01-21
    listed $649,000 Active
21. 2025-09-11
    price $4,000
22. 2025-05-25
    price $3,750
23. 2025-04-26
    price $4,000
24. 2025-04-12
    price $4,500
25. 2025-03-06
    price $5,000
26. 2025-02-14
    listed $4,500
27. 2023-08-31
    historical $4,200
28. 2023-07-31
    listed $4,200
29. 2010-12-08
    soldstatus $250,000 326-char remark

    Show marketing remark (326 chars)

    Lovingly maintained by the original owner, this lakefront residence features spacious rooms, high ceilings, extended lanai with brick pavers and beautiful landscaping, eat-in kitchen with Corian counters and tons of cupboard space, master bedroom offers 2 walk-in closets, beautiful window treatments, a real pleasure to show!

30. 2009-12-03
    listed $275,000 326-char remark

    Show marketing remark (326 chars)

    Lovingly maintained by the original owner, this lakefront residence features spacious rooms, high ceilings, extended lanai with brick pavers and beautiful landscaping, eat-in kitchen with Corian counters and tons of cupboard space, master bedroom offers 2 walk-in closets, beautiful window treatments, a real pleasure to show!

31. 1996-01-30
    soldstatus $49,500
32. 1995-10-04
    soldstatus $59,400

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,973 · $414/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,138 · $428/mo
• Expected delta: +$165/yr (+$14/mo · 3.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 10% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $59,299
• − Mortgage interest: −$34,674
• − Property taxes: −$4,973
• − Insurance: −$3,095
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,744
• − Management: −$4,744
• − HOA: −$4,080
• − Depreciation: −$18,007
• Taxable loss: −$15,018
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,604
• After-tax cash flow: $-651/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Pelican Marsh

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 27,273
• Household income: $92,259
• Rent vs Own: 33.3% rent · 66.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1712.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9% Black 4% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.29%
• Current HPI: 279.357
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.92%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+942.1% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Relisted — FORTMLS
• 2026-04-21 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $619,000 FORTMLS
• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $639,000 FORTMLS
• 2026-01-21 Listed $649,000 FORTMLS
• 2025-09-11 Price Changed $4,000 REDFIN
• 2025-05-25 Price Changed $3,750 REDFIN
• 2025-04-26 Price Changed $4,000 REDFIN
• 2025-04-12 Price Changed $4,500 REDFIN
• 2025-03-06 Price Changed $5,000 REDFIN
• 2025-02-14 Listed for Rent $4,500 REDFIN
• 2023-08-31 Rental Removed $4,200 RENT.
• 2023-07-31 Listed for Rent $4,200 RENT.
• 2010-12-08 Sold (MLS) $250,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2009-12-03 Listed $275,000 NAPLESMLS
• 1996-01-30 Sold (Public Records) $49,500 Public Records
• 1995-10-04 Sold (Public Records) $59,400 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,973 · -6.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.