2515 Sweetwater Rd Spc 6 · Spring Valley, CA 91977

$195,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1968 Est $213k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.3/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This well kept home is filled with years of happy memories. Located at quiet space #6 in the desirable Carmen Ranch Mobile Manor. It has a bright & sunny master bedroom, built in cabinets in the dining room, living room and bedroom#2. Tons of closet room and a hall desk for an office space. Driveway/carport can accommodate 3 cars and there are 2 storage sheds. Screened front porch has hook ups for washer/dryer. Please submit offer on CAR Form MHPA (Manufactured Home Purchase Agreement) Carmen Ranch Mobile Manor Amenities include: clubhouse, pool, spa, tennis courts, laundry room, hand ball courts, playground. . Neighborhoods: Spring Valley Complex Features: , , Other Fees: 0 Sewer: Sewer Connected Topography: LL

Key facts

• New shower
• Modern kitchen
• New roof

Tags

• MODERN KITCHEN
• NEW QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• NEW ROOF
• UPDATED BATHROOM
• NEW SHOWER
• EFFICIENT HVAC SYSTEM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Carman Ranch Mobile Manor, subdivision: SPRING VALLEY
• HOA & community: Community trash service; HOA covers sewer and water

Exterior

• Parking: 3 parking spaces
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Flat roof
• Exterior features: Partial fencing; Community pool; Shed(s); Solar panels

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Range hood; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 possible bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Electric cooling; Gas cooling; Forced air heating; Natural gas heating
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Dryer; Microwave; Refrigerator; Washer; Gas cooktop; Range hood
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $195k).
• Recommended offer: $192k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.7% vs local median 2.9% in Spring Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#627 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: commute A+, employment A, housing B+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
• La Mesa-Spring Valley (suburban): math 41% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #478 of 1,400 in CA (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 158 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($100k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.9% rent growth), your $55k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($192k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $67k; list at $195k implies a 191% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $192,075 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.63% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.93%
• DSCR: 2.33
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $213,120
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2515 Sweetwater Rd Spc 23	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (-13%)	1mo	$185,000	$148	72
2000 Crofton St #8	0.54mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	19mo	$495,000	$344	59
1815 Sweetwater Rd #89	0.73mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (0%)	9mo	$200,000	$139	54
1815 Sweetwater Rd #51	0.67mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (0%)	19mo	$190,000	$132	48
1815 Sweetwater Rd #22	0.67mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-7%)	8mo	$275,000	$205	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.88% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.89×
• Total profit: $48,409
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.33×
• Total profit: $127,404
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 91977

• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 158
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,180 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$47 /mo · $559/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$668
• Net cashflow: $1,362

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,456

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 52%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,472	-5% $1,417	+0% $1,362	+5% $1,306	+10% $1,251
Rent	-10% $1,110	-5% $1,236	+0% $1,362	+5% $1,487	+10% $1,613
Rate	-1.0pp $1,460	-0.5pp $1,411	base $1,362	+0.5pp $1,311	+1.0pp $1,260

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 31 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8973 Valencia St Spring Valley, CA	3.0	2.5	1830	$3,545	$1.94	2d	2	0.42mi
2705 Dennis Ln Lemon Grove, CA	3.0	2.0	1221	$4,400	$3.60	2d	1	0.47mi
8881 Lamar St Unit 02 Spring Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,995	$2.50	22d	1	0.51mi
8881 Lamar St Apt 3 Spring Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,995	$2.50	2d	1	0.51mi
8881 Lamar St Apt 7 Spring Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,995	$2.50	11d	1	0.51mi
8953 Lamar St #8951 Spring Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1200	$3,500	$2.92	2d	1	0.52mi
8355 Golden Ave Lemon Grove, CA	2.0	2.0	1037	$2,999	$2.89	2d	1	0.57mi
8075 Palm St Lemon Grove, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$2,750	$3.06	11d	1	0.68mi
3375 Par Dr La Mesa, CA	2.0	2.0	1229	$4,200	$3.42	2d	1	0.71mi
9144 Rosedale Dr Spring Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1205	$3,300	$2.74	22d	1	0.75mi
3405 Fairway Dr La Mesa, CA	3.0	2.0	1204	$3,950	$3.28	2d	1	0.77mi
2369 Ravenwood Dr Lemon Grove, CA	3.0	2.5	1461	$3,950	$2.70	3d	1	0.78mi
3601 Hilltop Dr Lemon Grove, CA	3.0	1.5	1200	$2,820	$2.35	2d	2	0.96mi
3507 Sequoia St Lemon Grove, CA	3.0	4.0	1691	$4,200	$2.48	3d	1	0.99mi
8137 Cascio Ct Lemon Grove, CA	2.0	2.5	1126	$2,995	$2.66	2d	1	1.02mi
8873 Golf Dr Spring Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1800	$4,295	$2.39	8d	1	1.03mi
1392 Helix St Unit Helix 1394 Spring Valley, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$2,095	$2.33	11d	1	1.05mi
7950 Broadway Lemon Grove, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	811	$3,205	$3.95	2d	4	1.05mi
9121 Kenwood Dr Spring Valley, CA	2.0	2.0	1000	$2,172	$2.17	2d	7	1.06mi
8864 Golf Dr Spring Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1200	$3,400	$2.83	2d	1	1.08mi
3605 Grove St Lemon Grove, CA	2.0	2.0	1022	$2,600	$2.54	24d	1	1.10mi
3725 Orion Dr La Mesa, CA	3.0	2.0	1347	$3,688	$2.74	17d	1	1.12mi
3560 James Cir Unit 8 Spring Valley, CA	2.0	1.0	915	$2,350	$2.57	2d	1	1.15mi
2671 Buena Vista Ave Lemon Grove, CA	3.0	2.0	1082	$3,618	$3.34	16d	1	1.18mi
3535 Helix St Spring Valley, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,350	$2.35	18d	1	1.24mi
1071 Osage Dr Spring Valley, CA	3.0	1.5	1054	$3,495	$3.32	2d	1	1.24mi
100 Citronica Ln Lemon Grove, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	815	$2,996	$3.68	2d	7	1.26mi
7508 Church St Lemon Grove, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	982	$2,895	$2.95	2d	2	1.37mi
9015 Campo Rd Unit 9015 Spring Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1280	$3,100	$2.42	17d	1	1.43mi
1327 Paraiso Ave Spring Valley, CA	3.0	2.5	1613	$4,650	$2.88	3d	1	1.46mi
937 Felicita Ave Spring Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1400	$3,800	$2.71	17d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,000 Active 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,000 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,000 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,000 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $195,000 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $195,000 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $195,000 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $195,000 Active 15 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $195,000 Active 14 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $195,000 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $195,000 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,000 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-05-19
    listed $195,000 Active
15. 2020-01-29
    soldstatus $67,000 Sold 730-char remark

    Show marketing remark (730 chars)

    This well kept home is filled with years of happy memories. Located at quiet space #6 in the desirable Carmen Ranch Mobile Manor. It has a bright & sunny master bedroom, built in cabinets in the dining room, living room and bedroom#2. Tons of closet room and a hall desk for an office space. Driveway/carport can accommodate 3 cars and there are 2 storage sheds. Screened front porch has hook ups for washer/dryer. Please submit offer on CAR Form MHPA (Manufactured Home Purchase Agreement) Carmen Ranch Mobile Manor Amenities include: clubhouse, pool, spa, tennis courts, laundry room, hand ball courts, playground. . Neighborhoods: Spring Valley Complex Features: , , Other Fees: 0 Sewer: Sewer Connected Topography: LL

16. 2020-01-29
    soldstatus $67,000 Closed Sale 730-char remark

    Show marketing remark (730 chars)

    This well kept home is filled with years of happy memories. Located at quiet space #6 in the desirable Carmen Ranch Mobile Manor. It has a bright & sunny master bedroom, built in cabinets in the dining room, living room and bedroom#2. Tons of closet room and a hall desk for an office space. Driveway/carport can accommodate 3 cars and there are 2 storage sheds. Screened front porch has hook ups for washer/dryer. Please submit offer on CAR Form MHPA (Manufactured Home Purchase Agreement) Carmen Ranch Mobile Manor Amenities include: clubhouse, pool, spa, tennis courts, laundry room, hand ball courts, playground. . Neighborhoods: Spring Valley Complex Features: , , Other Fees: 0 Sewer: Sewer Connected Topography: LL

17. 2019-12-05
    status Pending Sale 730-char remark

    Show marketing remark (730 chars)

    This well kept home is filled with years of happy memories. Located at quiet space #6 in the desirable Carmen Ranch Mobile Manor. It has a bright & sunny master bedroom, built in cabinets in the dining room, living room and bedroom#2. Tons of closet room and a hall desk for an office space. Driveway/carport can accommodate 3 cars and there are 2 storage sheds. Screened front porch has hook ups for washer/dryer. Please submit offer on CAR Form MHPA (Manufactured Home Purchase Agreement) Carmen Ranch Mobile Manor Amenities include: clubhouse, pool, spa, tennis courts, laundry room, hand ball courts, playground. . Neighborhoods: Spring Valley Complex Features: , , Other Fees: 0 Sewer: Sewer Connected Topography: LL

18. 2019-12-05
    status Pending 730-char remark

    Show marketing remark (730 chars)

    This well kept home is filled with years of happy memories. Located at quiet space #6 in the desirable Carmen Ranch Mobile Manor. It has a bright & sunny master bedroom, built in cabinets in the dining room, living room and bedroom#2. Tons of closet room and a hall desk for an office space. Driveway/carport can accommodate 3 cars and there are 2 storage sheds. Screened front porch has hook ups for washer/dryer. Please submit offer on CAR Form MHPA (Manufactured Home Purchase Agreement) Carmen Ranch Mobile Manor Amenities include: clubhouse, pool, spa, tennis courts, laundry room, hand ball courts, playground. . Neighborhoods: Spring Valley Complex Features: , , Other Fees: 0 Sewer: Sewer Connected Topography: LL

19. 2019-11-25
    listed $70,000 Active 730-char remark

    Show marketing remark (730 chars)

    This well kept home is filled with years of happy memories. Located at quiet space #6 in the desirable Carmen Ranch Mobile Manor. It has a bright & sunny master bedroom, built in cabinets in the dining room, living room and bedroom#2. Tons of closet room and a hall desk for an office space. Driveway/carport can accommodate 3 cars and there are 2 storage sheds. Screened front porch has hook ups for washer/dryer. Please submit offer on CAR Form MHPA (Manufactured Home Purchase Agreement) Carmen Ranch Mobile Manor Amenities include: clubhouse, pool, spa, tennis courts, laundry room, hand ball courts, playground. . Neighborhoods: Spring Valley Complex Features: , , Other Fees: 0 Sewer: Sewer Connected Topography: LL

20. 2019-11-25
    listed $70,000 Active 730-char remark

    Show marketing remark (730 chars)

    This well kept home is filled with years of happy memories. Located at quiet space #6 in the desirable Carmen Ranch Mobile Manor. It has a bright & sunny master bedroom, built in cabinets in the dining room, living room and bedroom#2. Tons of closet room and a hall desk for an office space. Driveway/carport can accommodate 3 cars and there are 2 storage sheds. Screened front porch has hook ups for washer/dryer. Please submit offer on CAR Form MHPA (Manufactured Home Purchase Agreement) Carmen Ranch Mobile Manor Amenities include: clubhouse, pool, spa, tennis courts, laundry room, hand ball courts, playground. . Neighborhoods: Spring Valley Complex Features: , , Other Fees: 0 Sewer: Sewer Connected Topography: LL

21. 2005-10-26
    historical
22. 2005-05-25
    listed $69,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $559 · $47/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,482 · $124/mo
• Expected delta: +$923/yr (+$77/mo · 165.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,158
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$559
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,053
• − Management: −$3,053
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable income: $13,923
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,342
• After-tax cash flow: $12,998/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: La Mesa-Spring Valley
• NCES district ID: 0620250
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $61,742
• Composite: 43.53/100
• National rank: #6442
• State rank: #478 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Spring Valley

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #627
• US rank: #19882

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spring Valley, CA
• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 61,064
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 61,064
• Household income: $99,657
• Rent vs Own: 36.2% rent · 63.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2007.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 29% Two or more races 19% Black 12% Asian 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 43%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 32% Tagalog/Filipino 3% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -697.99%
• Current HPI: 381.66
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.88%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+179.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $195,000 SDMLS
• 2020-01-29 Sold (MLS) $67,000 CRMLS
• 2020-01-29 Sold (MLS) $67,000 SDMLS
• 2019-12-05 Pending — CRMLS
• 2019-12-05 Pending — SDMLS
• 2019-11-25 Listed $70,000 CRMLS
• 2019-11-25 Listed $70,000 SDMLS
• 2005-10-26 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2005-05-25 Listed $69,900 CRMLS

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2013): $559 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.