2804 106th St · Lubbock, TX 79423

$173,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,410 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 75 Days on market

Built 2004 4,491 sqft lot ↓ 1% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

You'll love this adorable home situated just down the street from Lubbock-Cooper North Elementary. This clean and well maintained 3/2/2 features a new roof, new fence, fresh exterior and interior paint, and thoughtful care throughout. A wonderful move-in-ready home with great curb appeal and convenient location!

Key facts

• Convenient location
• Fresh interior paint
• Fresh exterior paint

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEW FENCE
• FRESH EXTERIOR PAINT
• FRESH INTERIOR PAINT
• CONVENIENT LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $173k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-98 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $156k (10.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $154k (11.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $154k (11.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Lubbock-Cooper ISD (rural): math 54% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #98 of 826 in TX (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 663 active listings in the ZIP; 39 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 41% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,040 (11.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.42%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.13% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-35,500
• Equity at exit: $25,795

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-43,928
• Equity at exit: $14,958

Cash invested: $48,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79423

• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 663
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,540 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$907
• Tax from tax record: −$335 /mo · $4,024/yr
• Insurance: −$72
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$323
• Net cashflow: $-98

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,664

Max offer price $155,731

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,250
• Closing costs: $5,190
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 39 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2909 106th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1646	$1,750	$1.06	21d	1	0.16mi
2530 107th Dr Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1265	$1,449	$1.15	43d	1	0.19mi
2523 110th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1127	$1,500	$1.33	43d	1	0.31mi
2518 111th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,450	$1.04	21d	1	0.32mi
2510 112th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1365	$1,475	$1.08	21d	1	0.40mi
3102 110th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,250	$1.04	21d	1	0.40mi
2623 113th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1608	$1,599	$0.99	13d	1	0.41mi
3101 110th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1193	$1,225	$1.03	21d	1	0.41mi
2501 111th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1365	$1,475	$1.08	21d	1	0.42mi
3106 110th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1151	$1,275	$1.11	13d	1	0.42mi
3101 99th St Unit 1 Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1694	$1,350	$0.80	43d	1	0.43mi
3108 110th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1231	$1,325	$1.08	21d	1	0.43mi
3108 111th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,300	$0.93	43d	1	0.46mi
3112 112th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1421	$1,395	$0.98	13d	1	0.49mi
3203 109th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,300	$0.93	43d	1	0.50mi
3203 110th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1191	$1,350	$1.13	21d	1	0.53mi
3204 112th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1602	$1,450	$0.91	43d	1	0.54mi
10317 Vernon Dr Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1786	$2,800	$1.57	21d	1	0.81mi
9803 Avenue V Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,500	$1.00	21d	1	0.87mi
2022 102nd St Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,550	$1.03	13d	1	0.91mi
9803 Uvalde Ave Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1474	$1,425	$0.97	13d	1	0.91mi
2415 93rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1692	$1,650	$0.98	21d	1	0.91mi
2011 100th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1698	$1,750	$1.03	13d	1	0.96mi
9715 Joliet Ave Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1589	$1,400	$0.88	43d	1	0.97mi
9818 Jordan Ave Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1497	$1,500	$1.00	43d	1	0.97mi
9702 Avenue U Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1265	$1,195	$0.94	43d	1	0.98mi
1717 102nd St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1407	$1,550	$1.10	21d	1	1.11mi
2204 93rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1258	$1,325	$1.05	13d	1	1.12mi
9001 Indiana Ave Unit C Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1100	$699	$0.64	43d	1	1.16mi
1705 102nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1487	$1,499	$1.01	43d	1	1.20mi
1702 102nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1487	$1,499	$1.01	21d	1	1.22mi
2403 87th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1158	$1,300	$1.12	13d	1	1.29mi
2218 88th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1311	$1,450	$1.11	43d	1	1.29mi
2401 87th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,125	$1.12	13d	1	1.30mi
8219 Elkridge Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1405	$1,475	$1.05	43d	1	1.39mi
8606 Avenue V Unit V Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1025	$1,075	$1.05	43d	1	1.41mi
8216 Elkridge Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,550	$1.10	21d	1	1.42mi
8604 Jordan Dr Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1855	$1,900	$1.02	43d	1	1.45mi
8601 Memphis Dr Unit A 8 Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.5	1069	$1,150	$1.08	43d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-19
   remarks 366-char remark
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $173,000 Active 75 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $173,000 Active 74 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $173,000 Active 73 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $173,000 Active 72 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $173,000 Active 70 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $173,000 Active 69 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $173,000 Active 67 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $173,000 Active 66 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $173,000 Active 65 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $173,000 Active 64 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $173,000 Active 61 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    remarks 343-char remark
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $173,000 Active 60 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $173,000 Active 59 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $173,000 Active 58 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $173,000 Active 57 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $173,000 Active 56 DOM
19. 2026-05-13
    status Active 313-char remark

    Show marketing remark (313 chars)

    You'll love this adorable home situated just down the street from Lubbock-Cooper North Elementary. This clean and well maintained 3/2/2 features a new roof, new fence, fresh exterior and interior paint, and thoughtful care throughout. A wonderful move-in-ready home with great curb appeal and convenient location!

20. 2026-05-03
    status Pending 313-char remark

    Show marketing remark (313 chars)

    You'll love this adorable home situated just down the street from Lubbock-Cooper North Elementary. This clean and well maintained 3/2/2 features a new roof, new fence, fresh exterior and interior paint, and thoughtful care throughout. A wonderful move-in-ready home with great curb appeal and convenient location!

21. 2026-03-25
    listed $173,000 Active 313-char remark

    Show marketing remark (313 chars)

    You'll love this adorable home situated just down the street from Lubbock-Cooper North Elementary. This clean and well maintained 3/2/2 features a new roof, new fence, fresh exterior and interior paint, and thoughtful care throughout. A wonderful move-in-ready home with great curb appeal and convenient location!

22. 2025-03-01
    historical $1,400
23. 2025-02-21
    listed $1,400
24. 2025-02-13
    historical $1,400
25. 2025-01-30
    price $1,400
26. 2025-01-28
    listed $1,600
27. 2024-12-24
    historical $1,600
28. 2024-11-04
    listed $1,600
29. 2024-10-18
    price $164,977
30. 2024-09-17
    price $174,977
31. 2023-08-05
    historical
32. 2005-08-11
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,024 · $335/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,024 · $335/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,485
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,691
• − Property taxes: −$4,024
• − Insurance: −$865
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,479
• − Management: −$1,479
• − Depreciation: −$5,033
• Taxable loss: −$4,085
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$981
• After-tax cash flow: $-193/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock-Cooper ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815180
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $77,347
• Composite: 47.9/100
• National rank: #2214
• State rank: #98 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 46,998
• Household income: $84,933
• Rent vs Own: 28.8% rent · 71.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1385.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 15% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 13% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -155.00%
• Current HPI: 213.6491
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.13%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-1.1% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Relisted — LARMLS
• 2026-05-03 Pending — LARMLS
• 2026-03-25 Listed $173,000 LARMLS
• 2025-03-01 Rental Removed $1,400 LARMLS
• 2025-02-21 Listed for Rent $1,400 LARMLS
• 2025-02-13 Rental Removed $1,400 LARMLS
• 2025-01-30 Price Changed $1,400 LARMLS
• 2025-01-28 Listed for Rent $1,600 LARMLS
• 2024-12-24 Rental Removed $1,600 LARMLS
• 2024-11-04 Listed for Rent $1,600 LARMLS
• 2024-10-18 Price Changed $164,977 LARMLS
• 2024-09-17 Price Changed $174,977 LARMLS
• 2023-08-05 Rental Removed — APPFOLIO
• 2005-08-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,024 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.