8949 N Cortlandt Dr · Citrus Springs, FL 34434

$239,400

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,405 sqft · Land · 18 Days on market

Built 2026 10,000 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

NEW CONSTRUCTION. MOVE-IN READY! Welcome to the Key West Model in Citrus Springs, a beautiful 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home with 1,405 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space, featuring concrete block construction, a 30-year architectural shingle roof, energy-efficient double-pane windows, vaulted ceilings in the main living area, and luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout. The kitchen features stainless steel appliances, custom white Shaker cabinets with soft-close drawers, granite countertops, and a pantry, while the spacious primary suite includes a large walk-in closet and a private bath with granite countertops. Additional highlights include washer and dryer hookups, a covered patio, an attached 2-car garage with an opener and remotes, a 10-year structural warranty, ownership freedom with no HOA fees, and a high-and-dry Flood Zone X location with no flood insurance required.

Key facts

• New construction
• Move in ready
• Vaulted ceilings

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• MOVE IN READY
• CONCRETE BLOCK CONSTRUCTION
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $239k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-223 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $207k (13.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $181k (24.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $181k (24.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#521 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Citrus (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #44 of 73 in FL (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Central Ridge Elementary School (math 41% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,383 of 2,144 statewide, top 65%, 723 students, 64% FRL); Citrus Springs Middle School (math 55% / reading 54%, grade B-, #183 of 571 statewide, top 34%, 821 students, 59% FRL); Lecanto High School (math 46% / reading 53%, grade D, #179 of 667 statewide, top 29%, 1,630 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools at 56% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 1247 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,443 units permitted in Citrus County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Citrus County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($236k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $44k; list at $239k implies a 444% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $181,176 (24.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.99%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-52,978
• Equity at exit: $35,695

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-64,322
• Equity at exit: $20,699

Cash invested: $67,032 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34434

• Home prices YoY: -2.9%
• Active inventory: 1247
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,812 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,255
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$299 /mo · $3,591/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$380
• Net cashflow: $-223

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,094

Max offer price $207,110

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-58	-5% $-140	+0% $-223	+5% $-306	+10% $-389
Rent	-10% $-366	-5% $-295	+0% $-223	+5% $-152	+10% $-80
Rate	-1.0pp $-103	-0.5pp $-162	base $-223	+0.5pp $-285	+1.0pp $-348

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,850
• Closing costs: $7,182
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
904 W Rum Pl Dunnellon, FL	3.0	2.0	1453	$1,699	$1.17	22d	1	0.19mi
754 W Deacon Pl Citrus Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1453	$1,800	$1.24	22d	1	0.20mi
9018 N Mendoza Way Citrus Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1225	$1,499	$1.22	22d	1	0.23mi
9066 N Akola Way Citrus Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1833	$2,150	$1.17	22d	1	0.28mi
572 W Bluster Pl Dunnellon, FL	4.0	2.0	1630	$1,900	$1.17	22d	1	0.30mi
9065 N Akola Way Citrus Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1511	$1,795	$1.19	22d	1	0.31mi
9262 N Travis Dr Citrus Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	984	$1,395	$1.42	22d	1	0.43mi
9298 N Mendoza Way Citrus Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,800	$1.33	22d	1	0.52mi
9271 N Peachtree Way Unit 9271 Citrus Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$1,300	$1.44	22d	1	0.53mi
8450 N Travis Dr Citrus Springs, FL	4.0	2.0	1787	$1,900	$1.06	22d	1	0.53mi
9337 N Mendoza Way Citrus Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	984	$1,275	$1.30	22d	1	0.55mi
696 W Hallam Dr Citrus Springs, FL	4.0	2.0	1797	$1,900	$1.06	22d	1	0.55mi
8398 N Jay Dr Dunnellon, FL	3.0	2.0	1541	$1,700	$1.10	22d	1	0.57mi
9437 N Travis Dr Citrus Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	972	$1,325	$1.36	22d	1	0.61mi
9475 N Camel Dr Dunnellon, FL	3.0	2.0	1670	$1,800	$1.08	22d	1	0.73mi
8190 N Wakefield Dr Dunnellon, FL	4.0	2.0	1772	$1,750	$0.99	22d	1	0.76mi
8180 N Wakefield Dr Dunnellon, FL	3.0	2.0	1502	$1,695	$1.13	22d	1	0.76mi
9676 N Jourden Dr Citrus Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1353	$1,750	$1.29	22d	1	0.78mi
9545 N Travis Dr Unit A Citrus Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,350	$1.35	22d	1	0.88mi
9543B N Travis Dr Unit A Citrus Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,350	$1.35	22d	1	0.88mi
9995 N Sandree Dr Citrus Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1453	$1,895	$1.30	22d	1	0.92mi
8267 N Santos Dr Citrus Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1453	$1,800	$1.24	22d	1	1.03mi
8030 N Galena Ave Citrus Springs, FL	4.0	2.0	1833	$2,150	$1.17	22d	1	1.05mi
7908 N Galena Ave Citrus Springs, FL	4.0	2.5	1551	$1,850	$1.19	22d	1	1.16mi
9924 N Country Club Way Citrus Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1473	$1,795	$1.22	22d	1	1.20mi
7708 N Paris Dr Dunnellon, FL	3.0	2.0	1415	$1,800	$1.27	22d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-04-21
   status Pending 899-char remark

   Show marketing remark (899 chars)

   NEW CONSTRUCTION. MOVE-IN READY! Welcome to the Key West Model in Citrus Springs, a beautiful 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home with 1,405 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space, featuring concrete block construction, a 30-year architectural shingle roof, energy-efficient double-pane windows, vaulted ceilings in the main living area, and luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout. The kitchen features stainless steel appliances, custom white Shaker cabinets with soft-close drawers, granite countertops, and a pantry, while the spacious primary suite includes a large walk-in closet and a private bath with granite countertops. Additional highlights include washer and dryer hookups, a covered patio, an attached 2-car garage with an opener and remotes, a 10-year structural warranty, ownership freedom with no HOA fees, and a high-and-dry Flood Zone X location with no flood insurance required.

2. 2026-04-21
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (899 chars)

   NEW CONSTRUCTION. MOVE-IN READY! Welcome to the Key West Model in Citrus Springs, a beautiful 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home with 1,405 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space, featuring concrete block construction, a 30-year architectural shingle roof, energy-efficient double-pane windows, vaulted ceilings in the main living area, and luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout. The kitchen features stainless steel appliances, custom white Shaker cabinets with soft-close drawers, granite countertops, and a pantry, while the spacious primary suite includes a large walk-in closet and a private bath with granite countertops. Additional highlights include washer and dryer hookups, a covered patio, an attached 2-car garage with an opener and remotes, a 10-year structural warranty, ownership freedom with no HOA fees, and a high-and-dry Flood Zone X location with no flood insurance required.

3. 2026-04-16
   price $239,400 899-char remark

   Show marketing remark (899 chars)

   NEW CONSTRUCTION. MOVE-IN READY! Welcome to the Key West Model in Citrus Springs, a beautiful 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home with 1,405 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space, featuring concrete block construction, a 30-year architectural shingle roof, energy-efficient double-pane windows, vaulted ceilings in the main living area, and luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout. The kitchen features stainless steel appliances, custom white Shaker cabinets with soft-close drawers, granite countertops, and a pantry, while the spacious primary suite includes a large walk-in closet and a private bath with granite countertops. Additional highlights include washer and dryer hookups, a covered patio, an attached 2-car garage with an opener and remotes, a 10-year structural warranty, ownership freedom with no HOA fees, and a high-and-dry Flood Zone X location with no flood insurance required.

4. 2026-04-16
   price $239,400

   Show marketing remark (899 chars)

   NEW CONSTRUCTION. MOVE-IN READY! Welcome to the Key West Model in Citrus Springs, a beautiful 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home with 1,405 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space, featuring concrete block construction, a 30-year architectural shingle roof, energy-efficient double-pane windows, vaulted ceilings in the main living area, and luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout. The kitchen features stainless steel appliances, custom white Shaker cabinets with soft-close drawers, granite countertops, and a pantry, while the spacious primary suite includes a large walk-in closet and a private bath with granite countertops. Additional highlights include washer and dryer hookups, a covered patio, an attached 2-car garage with an opener and remotes, a 10-year structural warranty, ownership freedom with no HOA fees, and a high-and-dry Flood Zone X location with no flood insurance required.

5. 2026-04-02
   listed $239,900 Active 899-char remark

   Show marketing remark (899 chars)

   NEW CONSTRUCTION. MOVE-IN READY! Welcome to the Key West Model in Citrus Springs, a beautiful 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home with 1,405 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space, featuring concrete block construction, a 30-year architectural shingle roof, energy-efficient double-pane windows, vaulted ceilings in the main living area, and luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout. The kitchen features stainless steel appliances, custom white Shaker cabinets with soft-close drawers, granite countertops, and a pantry, while the spacious primary suite includes a large walk-in closet and a private bath with granite countertops. Additional highlights include washer and dryer hookups, a covered patio, an attached 2-car garage with an opener and remotes, a 10-year structural warranty, ownership freedom with no HOA fees, and a high-and-dry Flood Zone X location with no flood insurance required.

6. 2026-04-02
   listed $239,900 Active

   Show marketing remark (899 chars)

   NEW CONSTRUCTION. MOVE-IN READY! Welcome to the Key West Model in Citrus Springs, a beautiful 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home with 1,405 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space, featuring concrete block construction, a 30-year architectural shingle roof, energy-efficient double-pane windows, vaulted ceilings in the main living area, and luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout. The kitchen features stainless steel appliances, custom white Shaker cabinets with soft-close drawers, granite countertops, and a pantry, while the spacious primary suite includes a large walk-in closet and a private bath with granite countertops. Additional highlights include washer and dryer hookups, a covered patio, an attached 2-car garage with an opener and remotes, a 10-year structural warranty, ownership freedom with no HOA fees, and a high-and-dry Flood Zone X location with no flood insurance required.

7. 2025-07-01
   soldstatus $44,000
8. 2025-06-18
   soldstatus $22,000 Closed 870-char remark

   Show marketing remark (870 chars)

   Citrus Springs – Build Your Dream Home! . 23-acre homesite in the growing community of Citrus Springs, Florida! This 80x125 ft lot is flat, lightly wooded, and offers the perfect canvas for your new home. With city water available and a septic system required, you're ready to start planning your build, Located in a deed-restricted, homes-only neighborhood, you'll enjoy a quiet, residential setting with no flood zone concerns. Elementary and middle schools are within 5 miles, making this an ideal location for families. Enjoy a short commute to Ocala, Crystal River, and Dunnellon, with easy access to all the conveniences of town while still living near Florida’s natural beauty. Explore the Nature Coast with its abundance of water activities, hiking trails, biking paths, and horseback riding opportunities, lot next door also available for same price

9. 2025-05-27
   status Pending 870-char remark

   Show marketing remark (870 chars)

   Citrus Springs – Build Your Dream Home! . 23-acre homesite in the growing community of Citrus Springs, Florida! This 80x125 ft lot is flat, lightly wooded, and offers the perfect canvas for your new home. With city water available and a septic system required, you're ready to start planning your build, Located in a deed-restricted, homes-only neighborhood, you'll enjoy a quiet, residential setting with no flood zone concerns. Elementary and middle schools are within 5 miles, making this an ideal location for families. Enjoy a short commute to Ocala, Crystal River, and Dunnellon, with easy access to all the conveniences of town while still living near Florida’s natural beauty. Explore the Nature Coast with its abundance of water activities, hiking trails, biking paths, and horseback riding opportunities, lot next door also available for same price

10. 2025-05-12
    listed $24,000 Active 870-char remark

    Show marketing remark (870 chars)

    Citrus Springs – Build Your Dream Home! . 23-acre homesite in the growing community of Citrus Springs, Florida! This 80x125 ft lot is flat, lightly wooded, and offers the perfect canvas for your new home. With city water available and a septic system required, you're ready to start planning your build, Located in a deed-restricted, homes-only neighborhood, you'll enjoy a quiet, residential setting with no flood zone concerns. Elementary and middle schools are within 5 miles, making this an ideal location for families. Enjoy a short commute to Ocala, Crystal River, and Dunnellon, with easy access to all the conveniences of town while still living near Florida’s natural beauty. Explore the Nature Coast with its abundance of water activities, hiking trails, biking paths, and horseback riding opportunities, lot next door also available for same price

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,741
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,410
• − Property taxes: −$3,591
• − Insurance: −$1,197
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,739
• − Management: −$1,739
• − Depreciation: −$6,964
• Taxable loss: −$6,900
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,656
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,022/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Citrus
• NCES district ID: 1200270
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,618
• Composite: 41.28/100
• National rank: #3519
• State rank: #44 of 73 in FL

Livability — Citrus Springs

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #521
• US rank: #9598

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Citrus Springs, FL
• County: Citrus County · 111,314 people
• City population: 10,730
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• Population (ZIP): 11,074
• Household income: $68,939
• Rent vs Own: 12.4% rent · 87.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 171.0

Population outlook (Citrus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,622 people
• By 2030: 136,886 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 132,009 · -4.8%
• By 2050: 125,196 · -9.7%
• By 2075: 108,570 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 84,454 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Citrus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.9) · D 26.8% · R 72.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.1pp · 2024: -45.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.9 2020: R+41.0 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+21.9 2008: R+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -9.70%
• Current HPI: 328.2164
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+897.5% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Pending — RACC
• 2026-04-21 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $239,400 RACC
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $239,400 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-02 Listed $239,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-02 Listed $239,900 RACC
• 2025-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $44,000 Public Records
• 2025-06-18 Sold (MLS) $22,000 RACC
• 2025-05-27 Pending — RACC
• 2025-05-12 Listed $24,000 RACC

Property tax history

+15.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $308 · +118.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.