1780 Forest Run Ln · Auburndale, FL 33823

$320,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,988 sqft · Land · 55 Days on market

Built 2025 5,000 sqft lot $12/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Brand new, energy-efficient home available NOW! The Hibiscus floorplan blends style and function with 4 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. Its open-concept design centers around a sleek kitchen that flows effortlessly into a spacious great room, perfect for gatherings or everyday living. Visit The Reserve at Van Oaks community and explore new single-family homes for sale in Auburndale, Florida right off of Lake Van. Located just six miles from I-4, this community offers easy access to Tampa, Orlando and Lakeland. Residents can enjoy the ideal Florida lifestyle with the community’s pool and cabana. Each home is built with innovative and energy-efficient features. Schedule a com

Key facts

• Spacious great room
• Community pool
• Open concept design

Tags

• ENERGY EFFICIENT HOME
• OPEN CONCEPT DESIGN
• SLEEK KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS GREAT ROOM
• COMMUNITY POOL
• COMMUNITY CABANA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $320k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-427 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $245k (23.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (32.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $215k (32.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#48 in FL, #905 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute C-.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Walter Caldwell Elementary School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,896 of 2,144 statewide, top 90%, 895 students, 58% FRL); Auburndale Senior High School (math 25% / reading 31%, grade F, #464 of 667 statewide, top 70%, 1,716 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools at 56% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 29% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 476 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($310k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $214,842 (32.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.72%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.18% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-78,666
• Equity at exit: $47,713

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.14×
• Total profit: $-101,981
• Equity at exit: $27,668

Cash invested: $89,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33823

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 476
• Price-to-rent: 12.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,148 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax from tax record: −$301 /mo · $3,607/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$12
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$451
• Net cashflow: $-427

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,689

Max offer price $244,612

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,000
• Closing costs: $9,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1772 Forest Run Ln Auburndale, FL	4.0	2.0	1710	$2,000	$1.17	14d	1	0.04mi
132 Eagle Point Blvd Auburndale, FL	3.0	2.0	1240	$1,805	$1.46	3d	1	0.33mi
217 Meadow Vue Ln Auburndale, FL	3.0	2.0	1363	$1,785	$1.31	23d	1	0.39mi
1142 Oak Valley Dr Auburndale, FL	4.0	2.0	1840	$2,115	$1.15	3d	1	0.49mi
332 Cascara Ln Auburndale, FL	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,995	$1.54	3d	1	0.49mi
103 Eagle Point Blvd Auburndale, FL	3.0	2.0	1267	$1,810	$1.43	3d	1	0.50mi
328 San Mauro Dr Auburndale, FL	4.0	2.0	1707	$2,100	$1.23	23d	1	0.54mi
1074 Oak Valley Dr Auburndale, FL	3.0	2.0	1695	$1,850	$1.09	3d	1	0.63mi
802 Arietta Cir Auburndale, FL	3.0	3.0	2077	$2,150	$1.04	23d	1	0.64mi
166 Diamond Ridge Blvd Auburndale, FL	4.0	2.0	1276	$1,755	$1.38	23d	1	0.68mi
2224 Palmview Cir E Auburndale, FL	4.0	2.0	2106	$2,326	$1.10	14d	1	0.84mi
812 Auburn Grove Ct Auburndale, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,200	$1.20	23d	1	0.88mi
1305 Carr Dr Auburndale, FL	3.0	2.0	1505	$1,800	$1.20	23d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $12 · $144/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-02-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-20
   price $320,000
3. 2025-12-31
   listed $336,960 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,607 · $301/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,607 · $301/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,781
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,925
• − Property taxes: −$3,607
• − Insurance: −$1,600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,062
• − Management: −$2,062
• − HOA: −$144
• − Depreciation: −$9,309
• Taxable loss: −$10,929
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,623
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,498/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Auburndale

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #48
• US rank: #905

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute C- Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Auburndale, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 41,779
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 41,779
• Household income: $71,485
• Rent vs Own: 24.8% rent · 75.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 821.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 13% Two or more races 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, Philippines
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 15% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.70%
• Current HPI: 316.9436
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.18%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-5.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-24 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $320,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-31 Listed $336,960 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid