2729 Bent Oak Ave · Adrian, MI 49221

$142,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,081 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 46 Days on market

Built 1923 9,583 sqft lot Est $175k · 18% under ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

New to the market and just north of Adrian with low township taxes! This home features a newer roof, updated furnace, updated siding, central air, a 2-car garage, carport, 2 main-floor bedrooms, and a large attic for extra storage. With some TLC, this home offers outstanding potential.

Key facts

• 9,583 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1923

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association present

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage and carport; Garage fits 2 cars
• Utilities: Private well water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Lot dimensions approximately 106.2 x 87 x 106.2 x 90; Lot size about 0.22 acres; No pool

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating; Natural gas heating
• Interior features: Crawl space basement; Total of 4 rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $143k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $304 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $143k).
• Recommended offer: $139k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 5.5% in Adrian — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#342 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, crime F, commute F.
• Adrian School District (town): math 25% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #370 of 540 in MI (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 212 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 137 units permitted in Lenawee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $988 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lenawee County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($139k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1923 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $138,613 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1923 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.13%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $175,122
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2835 Carson Hwy	0.56mi	2/1.0	1,015 (-6%)	5mo	$165,000	$163	59
2428 Curtis Rd	0.09mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,182 (+9%)	21mo	$145,000	$123	57
2879 Spielman Heights Dr	0.35mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,056 (-2%)	22mo	$224,500	$213	57
3123 N Hills Blvd	0.67mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,030 (-5%)	5mo	$195,000	$189	52
453 Riverside Ave	0.65mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,161 (+7%)	4mo	$150,000	$129	49
371 Riverside Ave	0.65mi	3/1.0 (+1)	988 (-9%)	3mo	$160,000	$162	48
2840 Carson Hwy	0.58mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,120 (+4%)	18mo	$178,000	$159	47
816 Sheffield Ave	0.72mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,164 (+8%)	9mo	$166,500	$143	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-3,809
• Equity at exit: $21,307

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.54×
• Total profit: $21,477
• Equity at exit: $12,355

Cash invested: $40,012 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49221

• Active inventory: 212
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$749
• Tax from tax record: −$72 /mo · $860/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $304

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,115

Max offer price $142,900

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $385	-5% $345	+0% $304	+5% $264	+10% $224
Rent	-10% $186	-5% $245	+0% $304	+5% $364	+10% $423
Rate	-1.0pp $376	-0.5pp $341	base $304	+0.5pp $267	+1.0pp $230

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,725
• Closing costs: $4,287
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
413 E Maple Ave Unit 1 Adrian, MI	2.0	1.0	826	$1,500	$1.82	24d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $142,900 Active 46 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $142,900 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $142,900 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $142,900 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $142,900 Active 41 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $142,900 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $142,900 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $142,900 Active 35 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $142,900 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $142,900 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $142,900 Active 32 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $142,900 Active 29 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    price $142,900 Active 28 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $144,900 Active 28 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $144,900 Active 27 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $144,900 Active 26 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $144,900 Active 25 DOM
18. 2026-05-23
    price $148,900 286-char remark

    Show marketing remark (286 chars)

    New to the market and just north of Adrian with low township taxes! This home features a newer roof, updated furnace, updated siding, central air, a 2-car garage, carport, 2 main-floor bedrooms, and a large attic for extra storage. With some TLC, this home offers outstanding potential.

19. 2026-05-22
    price $148,900
20. 2026-05-20
    price $149,900 286-char remark

    Show marketing remark (286 chars)

    New to the market and just north of Adrian with low township taxes! This home features a newer roof, updated furnace, updated siding, central air, a 2-car garage, carport, 2 main-floor bedrooms, and a large attic for extra storage. With some TLC, this home offers outstanding potential.

21. 2026-05-20
    price $149,900

    Show marketing remark (286 chars)

    New to the market and just north of Adrian with low township taxes! This home features a newer roof, updated furnace, updated siding, central air, a 2-car garage, carport, 2 main-floor bedrooms, and a large attic for extra storage. With some TLC, this home offers outstanding potential.

22. 2026-05-05
    listed $155,000 Active 286-char remark

    Show marketing remark (286 chars)

    New to the market and just north of Adrian with low township taxes! This home features a newer roof, updated furnace, updated siding, central air, a 2-car garage, carport, 2 main-floor bedrooms, and a large attic for extra storage. With some TLC, this home offers outstanding potential.

23. 2026-05-05
    listed $155,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (286 chars)

    New to the market and just north of Adrian with low township taxes! This home features a newer roof, updated furnace, updated siding, central air, a 2-car garage, carport, 2 main-floor bedrooms, and a large attic for extra storage. With some TLC, this home offers outstanding potential.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $860 · $72/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,530 · $128/mo
• Expected delta: +$671/yr (+$56/mo · 78.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,005
• − Property taxes: −$860
• − Insurance: −$714
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,440
• − Management: −$1,440
• − Depreciation: −$4,157
• Taxable income: $1,384
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$332
• After-tax cash flow: $3,321/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Adrian School District
• NCES district ID: 2601950
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $41,288
• Composite: 25.33/100
• National rank: #7480
• State rank: #370 of 540 in MI

Livability — Adrian

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #342
• US rank: #8722

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 41,041
• Population (ZIP): 41,041

Population outlook (Lenawee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 95,497 people
• By 2030: 92,722 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 85,641 · -10.3%
• By 2050: 77,971 · -18.4%
• By 2075: 60,043 · -37.1%
• By 2100: 41,468 · -56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 8% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lenawee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.0) · D 37.8% · R 60.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.1pp toward R · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: -23.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.0 2020: R+19.9 2016: R+21.1 2012: R+1.3 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -143.64%
• Current HPI: 237.3796
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-3.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Price Changed $148,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $148,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $149,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $149,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-05 Listed $155,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-05 Listed $155,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

-1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $860 · -36.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.