1306 Dayton St · Florence, AL 35630

$19,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,014 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 72 Days on market

Built 1963 0.34 ac lot $20/sqft · 84% below area ↓ 33% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Drive by and check this out! 2 Lots Available . 4 Blocks off of Florence Blvd. and Near Downtown and UNA. several New construction houses 2 blocks away. There is an old house on the property that has no value. Drive by and check out the location.

Key facts

• 0.34 acre lot
• Built 1963
• Listed 71 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $20k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $779 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $20k).
• Recommended offer: $19k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 53.3% vs local median 3.6% in Florence — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#4 in AL, #1,140 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F, employment F.
• Florence City (urban): math 28% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #44 of 129 in AL (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.2%/yr); 268 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 164 units permitted in Lauderdale County in 2024 (72 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $138 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $597 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.2% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($19k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $18,706 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.72% ✓
• Cap rate: 53.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 167.84%
• DSCR: 8.47
• GRM: 1.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $120,544
• List price: $19,900
• Delta: -83.49%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1113 Alabama St	0.23mi	3/2.0	950 (-6%)	2mo	$135,000	$142	73
100 Sycamore St	0.14mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,008 (-1%)	18mo	$18,500	$18	72
655 Sannoner Ave	0.42mi	3/1.0	975 (-4%)	8mo	$159,900	$164	68
808 E Mobile St	0.35mi	3/1.0	1,100 (+8%)	9mo	$128,000	$116	62
202 Minniehaha	0.44mi	2/1.0 (-1)	975 (-4%)	10mo	$99,500	$102	60
339 N Royal Ave	0.38mi	2/1.0 (-1)	950 (-6%)	11mo	$106,000	$112	58
711 Grandview Ave	0.60mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,006 (-1%)	13mo	$65,000	$65	55
622 Mobile St E	0.49mi	2/1.0 (-1)	950 (-6%)	10mo	$140,000	$147	54
305 Minniehaha	0.52mi	2/2.0 (-1)	980 (-3%)	12mo	$130,000	$133	52
2009 Midway St	0.67mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,116 (+10%)	11mo	$57,500	$52	38
506 Sweetwater Ave	0.58mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,100 (+8%)	15mo	$130,700	$119	38
1129 Atlanta St	0.71mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,139 (+12%)	14mo	$146,000	$128	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.18% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 10.00×
• Total profit: $50,174
• Equity at exit: $2,967

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 23.27×
• Total profit: $124,089
• Equity at exit: $1,721

Cash invested: $5,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35630

• Home prices YoY: -33.7%
• Rents YoY: 6.2%
• Active inventory: 268
• Price-to-rent: 1.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,138 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$104
• Tax from tax record: −$7 /mo · $85/yr
• Insurance: −$8
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$239
• Net cashflow: $779

Break-even live

Break-even rent $152

Max offer price $19,900

Occupancy floor 27%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $791	-5% $785	+0% $779	+5% $774	+10% $768
Rent	-10% $689	-5% $734	+0% $779	+5% $824	+10% $869
Rate	-1.0pp $789	-0.5pp $784	base $779	+0.5pp $774	+1.0pp $769

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $4,975
• Closing costs: $597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1110 E Limestone St Unit 1 Florence, AL	2.0	1.0	840	$1,600	$1.90	44d	1	0.42mi
530 N Royal Ave Florence, AL	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,100	$0.92	45d	1	0.53mi
520 E Tuscaloosa St Unit 520-C Florence, AL	2.0	1.0	900	$995	$1.11	44d	1	0.57mi
418 N Poplar St Florence, AL	2.0	2.0	1000	$995	$0.99	44d	1	0.61mi
1252 Hermitage Dr Florence, AL	2.0	2.0	1250	$1,170	$0.94	44d	1	0.87mi
939 N Royal Ave Florence, AL	2.0	1.0	900	$850	$0.94	44d	1	0.89mi
211 N Patton St Unit 1510 Florence, AL	2.0	1.0	850	$825	$0.97	44d	1	0.94mi
301 N Court St Unit 1 Florence, AL	2.0	1.5	1000	$850	$0.85	44d	1	0.96mi
1034 N Royal Ave Unit 2 Florence, AL	2.0	1.0	900	$850	$0.94	44d	1	1.06mi
1846 Darby Dr Florence, AL	2.0	2.5	1200	$1,125	$0.94	44d	5	1.19mi
1975 Darby Dr Florence, AL	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	997	$815	$0.82	44d	2	1.38mi
1413 N Pine St Florence, AL	4.0	2.0	1444	$1,695	$1.17	44d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $19,900 Active 72 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $19,900 Active 71 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $19,900 Active 70 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $19,900 Active 69 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $19,900 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $19,900 Active 66 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $19,900 Active 65 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $19,900 Active 63 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $19,900 Active 62 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $19,900 Active 61 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $19,900 Active 57 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $19,900 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $19,900 Active 54 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $19,900 Active 53 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $19,900 Active 52 DOM
16. 2026-04-09
    listed $19,900 Active 248-char remark

    Show marketing remark (248 chars)

    Drive by and check this out! 2 Lots Available . 4 Blocks off of Florence Blvd. and Near Downtown and UNA. several New construction houses 2 blocks away. There is an old house on the property that has no value. Drive by and check out the location.

17. 2024-12-30
    listed $29,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $85 · $7/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $85 · $7/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 22% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,657
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,115
• − Property taxes: −$85
• − Insurance: −$100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,093
• − Management: −$1,093
• − Depreciation: −$579
• Taxable income: $9,593
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,302
• After-tax cash flow: $7,049/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Florence City
• NCES district ID: 0101530
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $34,997
• Composite: 29.69/100
• National rank: #6456
• State rank: #44 of 129 in AL

Livability — Florence

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #4
• US rank: #1140

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Florence, AL
• County: Lauderdale County · 47,988 people
• City population: 34,028
• Metro: Florence-Muscle Shoals, AL
• Population (ZIP): 34,028
• Household income: $46,304
• Rent vs Own: 54.7% rent · 45.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1516.0

Population outlook (Lauderdale County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 93,386 people
• By 2030: 93,634 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 93,114 · -0.3%
• By 2050: 91,586 · -1.9%
• By 2075: 88,667 · -5.1%
• By 2100: 81,098 · -13.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Black 18% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lauderdale

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.5) · D 23.8% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.3pp toward R · 2008: -28.2pp · 2024: -51.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.5 2020: R+44.7 2016: R+46.0 2012: R+30.9 2008: R+28.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -104.78%
• Current HPI: 206.1364
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.18%
• Metro: Florence-Muscle Shoals, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-33.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Listed $19,900 SAARMLS
• 2024-12-30 Listed $29,900 SAARMLS

Property tax history

-5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $85 · +6.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.