1301 S Shivers St · Poplarville, MS 39470

$149,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,305 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 183 Days on market

Built 1960 1.00 ac lot $114/sqft · 11% below area Est $188k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for a starter home or downsizing. Here Ya go. Walking distance to restaurants, shopping, groceries, etc. It's hard to find a home this size at this price. It's cozy and cute. Formal dining, 3 large bedrooms and a family room on the back. The yard is big and ready for your pet, your kids or a nice place to grow your own vegetables. Oh, it has a large producing lemon tree in the back. Better call on this one quick. It won't last long.

Key facts

• Big yard
• 1 acre lot
• Garage

Tags

• WALKING DISTANCE TO SHOPPING
• WALKING DISTANCE TO GROCERIES
• LARGE PRODUCING LEMON TREE
• BIG YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $70 ($841/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $122k (18.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $122k (18.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 2.8% in Poplarville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#27 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Poplarville Separate School District (rural): math 33% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #52 of 130 in MS (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 190 active listings in the ZIP; 326 units permitted in Pearl River County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pearl River County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 183 days — a 12% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $149k implies a 231% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $121,746 (18.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 183 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.02%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $187,742
• List price: $149,000
• Delta: -20.64%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
314 E Starkey St	0.47mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,287 (-1%)	2mo	$109,900	$85	64
313 S Woodard St	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,326 (+2%)	11mo	$160,000	$121	58
308 W Beers St	0.73mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,203 (-8%)	12mo	$145,000	$121	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-19,746
• Equity at exit: $22,216

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-11,715
• Equity at exit: $12,883

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39470

• Home prices YoY: -18.1%
• Active inventory: 190
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,217 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$48 /mo · $579/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$256
• Net cashflow: $70

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,129

Max offer price $149,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $154	-5% $112	+0% $70	+5% $28	+10% $-14
Rent	-10% $-26	-5% $22	+0% $70	+5% $118	+10% $166
Rate	-1.0pp $145	-0.5pp $108	base $70	+0.5pp $31	+1.0pp $-8

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,000 Active 183 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,000 Active 181 DOM
3. 2026-06-12
   days on market $149,000 Active 180 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,000 Active 177 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,000 Active 176 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $149,000 Active 175 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $149,000 Active 174 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $149,000 Active 171 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $149,000 Active 170 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,000 Active 169 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,000 Active 168 DOM
12. 2025-12-14
    listed $149,000 Active 444-char remark

    Show marketing remark (444 chars)

    Looking for a starter home or downsizing. Here Ya go. Walking distance to restaurants, shopping, groceries, etc. It's hard to find a home this size at this price. It's cozy and cute. Formal dining, 3 large bedrooms and a family room on the back. The yard is big and ready for your pet, your kids or a nice place to grow your own vegetables. Oh, it has a large producing lemon tree in the back. Better call on this one quick. It won't last long.

13. 2011-12-28
    soldstatus $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $579 · $48/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,177 · $98/mo
• Expected delta: +$598/yr (+$50/mo · 103.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,610
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$579
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,169
• − Management: −$1,169
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable loss: −$1,733
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$416
• After-tax cash flow: $1,257/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Poplarville Separate School District
• NCES district ID: 2803720
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,882
• Composite: 30.1/100
• National rank: #6339
• State rank: #52 of 130 in MS

Livability — Poplarville

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #27
• US rank: #6434

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Poplarville, MS
• Population (ZIP): 12,872

Population outlook (Pearl River County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,426 people
• By 2030: 51,663 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 47,611 · -10.9%
• By 2050: 43,286 · -19.0%
• By 2075: 32,859 · -38.5%
• By 2100: 22,476 · -57.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Black 12% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Italian 3% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pearl River

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.7) · D 16.1% · R 82.8% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.3pp toward R · 2008: -60.4pp · 2024: -66.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.7 2020: R+64.2 2016: R+66.8 2012: R+60.3 2008: R+60.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -46.36%
• Current HPI: 210.4161
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+231.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-14 Listed $149,000 PRCBOR
• 2011-12-28 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $579 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.