31 SANFORD Street · St. Augustine, FL
Flood risk 8/10 · Major
- FEMA flood zone
- AE
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.97%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $1,737 – $8,500
Fire risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $947 – $1,759
Heat risk 9/10 · Severe
- Hot days now (above 106°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 20 days/yr
Wind risk 10/10 · Severe
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 99.0%
Air-quality risk 3/10 · Minor
- Unhealthy air days now
- 3 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 3 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +30.0/30.0
- ARV discount +15.0/15.0
- 1% rule +10.0/10.0
- DSCR +10.0/10.0
- Schools +6.4/10.0
- Appreciation +5.0/10.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
- Livability +2.5/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
$884,000
🖨 Deal sheet 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
Legal duplex + ADU in the heart of historic downtown St. Augustine, fully approved for short-term rentals with 8 off street parking spots! Three separate income-producing units just steps from dining, shopping, and the waterfront. Rare opportunity to own a high-demand, walkable property with multiple revenue streams in one of Florida’s most visited destinations. Prime location. Endless investment potential. The ADU is a 1/. 5 289 SQFT Professional photos coming the 18th of February
Key facts
- Adu
- Legal duplex
- Short-term rentals
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 6-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $884k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($50k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($13k rent vs $884k).
- Recommended offer: $778k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 12.6% vs local median 3.1% in St. Augustine — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads: area grade A — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
- St. Johns (rural): math 75% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #2 of 73 in FL (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
- Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 5,575 units permitted in St. Johns County in 2024 (584 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- In year one you build about $33k of equity ($6k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
- St. Johns County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
- At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $248k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
- By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$53k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 127 days — a 12% lower offer ($778k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $75k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
- Current owner paid $180k; list at $884k implies a 391% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
- Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 127 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.52% ✓
- Cap rate
- 12.58%
- Cash-on-cash
- 22.46%
- DSCR
- 2.00
- GRM
- 5.5
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $1,596,369
- List price
- $884,000
- Delta
- -44.31%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 2 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 76 Sanford St | 0.21mi | 5/3.5 (-1) | 2,735 (-6%) | 16mo | $1,155,000 | $422 | 60 |
| 56 Carrera St | 0.38mi | 5/4.0 (-1) | 2,977 (+2%) | 18mo | $1,165,000 | $391 | 59 |
| 17 S Leonardi St | 0.65mi | 6/4.0 | 3,130 (+7%) | 23mo | $627,000 | $200 | 39 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- 26.7%
- Equity multiple
- 2.51×
- Total profit
- $374,732
- Equity at exit
- $397,485
- IRR
- 27.4%
- Equity multiple
- 4.88×
- Total profit
- $959,243
- Equity at exit
- $612,571
Cash invested: $247,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Florida
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 32084-0000
- Active inventory
- 12
- Price-to-rent
- 5.5×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $13,402 medium interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$4,636
- Tax from tax record
- −$951 /mo · $11,410/yr
- Insurance
- −$368
- Flood insurance flood zone
- −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$2,814
- Net cashflow
- $4,206
Break-even live
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $221,000
- Closing costs
- $26,520
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 2 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 W Castillo Dr Unit 1281932P St. Augustine, FL | 5.0 | 4.5 | 2594 | $19,418 | $7.49 | 21d | 1 | 0.65mi |
| 716 Cathedral Pl St Augustine, FL | 6.0 | 5.0 | 2500 | $760 | $0.30 | 24d | 1 | 1.32mi |
Listing history 27 events
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2026-06-18price $884,000 Active 127 DOM
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2026-06-18days on market $889,000 Active 127 DOM
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2026-06-17days on market $889,000 Active 126 DOM
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2026-06-16days on market $889,000 Active 125 DOM
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2026-06-15days on market $889,000 Active 124 DOM
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2026-06-13days on market $889,000 Active 122 DOM
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2026-06-13days on market $889,000 Active 121 DOM
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2026-06-10days on market $889,000 Active 118 DOM
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2026-06-08days on market $889,000 Active 117 DOM
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2026-06-07days on market $889,000 Active 116 DOM
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2026-06-03days on market $889,000 Active 112 DOM
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2026-06-02days on market $889,000 Active 111 DOM
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2026-06-01days on market $889,000 Active 110 DOM
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2026-05-31days on market $889,000 Active 109 DOM
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2026-04-28price $889,000 493-char remark
Show marketing remark (493 chars)
Legal duplex + ADU in the heart of historic downtown St. Augustine, fully approved for short-term rentals with 8 off street parking spots! Three separate income-producing units just steps from dining, shopping, and the waterfront. Rare opportunity to own a high-demand, walkable property with multiple revenue streams in one of Florida’s most visited destinations. Prime location. Endless investment potential. The ADU is a 1/. 5 289 SQFT Professional photos coming the 18th of February
-
2026-04-08price $929,000 493-char remark
Show marketing remark (493 chars)
Legal duplex + ADU in the heart of historic downtown St. Augustine, fully approved for short-term rentals with 8 off street parking spots! Three separate income-producing units just steps from dining, shopping, and the waterfront. Rare opportunity to own a high-demand, walkable property with multiple revenue streams in one of Florida’s most visited destinations. Prime location. Endless investment potential. The ADU is a 1/. 5 289 SQFT Professional photos coming the 18th of February
-
2026-02-11$959,000 Active 493-char remark
Show marketing remark (493 chars)
Legal duplex + ADU in the heart of historic downtown St. Augustine, fully approved for short-term rentals with 8 off street parking spots! Three separate income-producing units just steps from dining, shopping, and the waterfront. Rare opportunity to own a high-demand, walkable property with multiple revenue streams in one of Florida’s most visited destinations. Prime location. Endless investment potential. The ADU is a 1/. 5 289 SQFT Professional photos coming the 18th of February
-
2026-02-10historical 506-char remark
Show marketing remark (506 chars)
Owen's Place is a newly renovated Victorian built in the late 1800's. It has over 3500 square feet of living area with front and back upstairs and downstairs porches, two kitchens, outdoor eating areas and plenty of parking and a guest house. Short distance from Flagler college, Casa Monica, and famed St. George Street. Come to our nations's oldest city and discover the city that defines old world charm. 4 blocks from White Room and 2 blocks from Flagler College, Lightner Museum and Casa Monica Hotel.
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2025-11-04$999,999 Active 506-char remark
Show marketing remark (506 chars)
Owen's Place is a newly renovated Victorian built in the late 1800's. It has over 3500 square feet of living area with front and back upstairs and downstairs porches, two kitchens, outdoor eating areas and plenty of parking and a guest house. Short distance from Flagler college, Casa Monica, and famed St. George Street. Come to our nations's oldest city and discover the city that defines old world charm. 4 blocks from White Room and 2 blocks from Flagler College, Lightner Museum and Casa Monica Hotel.
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2022-10-24price $1,280,000
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2022-08-19price $1,290,000
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2022-06-29historical
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2022-05-04$1,400,000 Active
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2020-11-04soldstatus $180,000
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2020-02-26soldstatus $355,394
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2016-04-13soldstatus $460,000
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1998-05-19soldstatus $100,000
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price
- Current annual tax
- $11,410 · $951/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $11,410 · $951/mo
- Expected delta
- $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 97% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 1/10 Low
- Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $160,820
- − Mortgage interest
- −$49,518
- − Property taxes
- −$11,410
- − Insurance
- −$9,538
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$12,866
- − Management
- −$12,866
- − Depreciation
- −$25,716
- Taxable income
- $38,906
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$9,338
- After-tax cash flow
- $41,132/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- St. Johns
- NCES district ID
- 1201740
- Math proficiency
- 75% ▼ -5.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 73% ▼ -2.00%
- Median HH income
- $66,842
- Composite
- 64.31/100
- National rank
- #556
- State rank
- #2 of 73 in FL
Livability — St. Augustine
No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)
Census & demographics
- Census place
- St. Augustine, FL
Population outlook (St. Johns County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 303,941 people
- By 2030
- 342,590 · +12.7%
- By 2040
- 417,328 · +37.3%
- By 2050
- 487,011 · +60.2%
- By 2075
- 635,395 · +109.1%
- By 2100
- 717,469 · +136.1%
Not yet ingested
- Political lean
- —
- Race & ethnicity
- —
- Common origin
- —
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- —
- Current HPI
- —
- Rent YoY
- —
- Metro
- —
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.28%
- F500 in state
- 36
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Industrial Technology | 2 | $29B |
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| Insurance | 2 | $17B |
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| Retail | 1 | $60B |
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| Technology Distribution | 1 | $58B |
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| Homebuilding | 1 | $35B |
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| Technology Manufacturing | 1 | $35B |
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Price history
+789.0% since first listed13 events — show timeline
- 2026-04-28 Price Changed $889,000 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
- 2026-04-08 Price Changed $929,000 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
- 2026-02-11 Listed $959,000 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
- 2026-02-10 Listing Removed — realMLS
- 2025-11-04 Listed $999,999 realMLS
- 2022-10-24 Price Changed $1,280,000 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
- 2022-08-19 Price Changed $1,290,000 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
- 2022-06-29 Listing Removed — realMLS
- 2022-05-04 Listed $1,400,000 realMLS
- 2020-11-04 Sold (Public Records) $180,000 Public Records
- 2020-02-26 Sold (Public Records) $355,394 Public Records
- 2016-04-13 Sold (Public Records) $460,000 Public Records
- 1998-05-19 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records
Property tax history
+12.9%/yrLatest (2025): $11,410 · +12.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…