500 Marilyn Dr · Kinston, NC 28501

$39,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 957 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 60 Days on market

Built 1953 0.29 ac lot Est $72k · 46% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investment opportunity in Kinston! This 1953-built, 3BR/1BA cottage sits on a spacious . 29-acre corner lot in the Westwood subdivision. Offering 957 sqft of potential, this home features a functional floor plan and a first-floor primary bedroom. Being sold strictly AS-IS, this property is a blank canvas for contractors or savvy investors looking to flip or add to a rental portfolio.

Key facts

• 0.29 acre lot
• Built 1953
• Listed 59 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking (unpaved); no defined driveway/garage
• Utilities: Public water; Natural gas connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One level / single-story
• Construction: Concrete, asbestos, and frame construction
• Exterior features: Front porch; Composition roof; Has a view; Paved road access; City street and state road frontage; Lot dimensions approximately 108 x 124 x 113 x 106; Lot about 0.29 acres; Zoning: RA6

Interior

• Flooring: Flooring details — see remarks
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating with natural gas
• Interior features: Gas water heater; 5 total rooms; Crawl space basement (no finished basement)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $39k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $370 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($792 rent vs $39k).
• Recommended offer: $38k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#640 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing B+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Lenoir County Public Schools (rural): math 29% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #147 of 178 in NC (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Northeast Elementary (math 6% / reading 12%, grade F, #1,393 of 1,410 statewide, top 99%, 442 students, 98% FRL); Rochelle Middle (math 9% / reading 20%, grade F, #462 of 475 statewide, top 98%, 466 students, 98% FRL); Kinston High (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #459 of 535 statewide, top 87%, 713 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 65% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 18% at this address vs 30% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Lenoir County Public Schools average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 95 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 148 units permitted in Lenoir County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $270 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lenoir County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($38k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (29%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $39k implies a 290% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $37,830 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 40.68%
• DSCR: 2.81
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $71,775
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
500 Jackson Ln	0.15mi	3/1.0	954 (-0%)	8mo	$142,000	$149	86
504 Jackson Ln	0.15mi	3/1.0	983 (+3%)	15mo	$65,000	$66	76
402 Marcella Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,078 (+13%)	3mo	$146,500	$136	67
514 Greenmead Dr	0.30mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,038 (+8%)	5mo	$77,500	$75	63
819 Dixon St	0.39mi	3/1.0	925 (-3%)	18mo	$70,000	$76	62
817 Williams St	0.42mi	2/1.0 (-1)	922 (-4%)	9mo	$66,500	$72	62
613 Larkspur Rd	0.44mi	3/1.0	925 (-3%)	17mo	$82,500	$89	60
1405 Hyman Ave	0.43mi	3/1.0	1,025 (+7%)	12mo	$68,000	$66	58
1403 Hyman Ave	0.44mi	3/1.0	1,000 (+4%)	17mo	$36,000	$36	58
1203 Ferndale Ln	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,023 (+7%)	8mo	$32,500	$32	52
616 Greenmead Dr	0.47mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,038 (+8%)	16mo	$30,000	$29	45
1504 Howard St	0.69mi	3/1.5	1,076 (+12%)	20mo	$87,000	$81	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.58×
• Total profit: $17,262
• Equity at exit: $5,815

10-year hold

• IRR: 43.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.16×
• Total profit: $45,405
• Equity at exit: $3,372

Cash invested: $10,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28501

• Home prices YoY: -18.9%
• Active inventory: 95
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $792 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$205
• Tax from tax record: −$34 /mo · $413/yr
• Insurance: −$16
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$166
• Net cashflow: $370

Break-even live

Break-even rent $323

Max offer price $39,000

Occupancy floor 48%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,750
• Closing costs: $1,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4015 N Herritage St Kinston, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	964	$838	$0.87	13d	6	0.58mi
1313 McAdoo St Kinston, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	644	$814	$1.26	13d	6	0.61mi
705 Harvey St Kinston, NC	2.0	1.0	896	$700	$0.78	21d	1	1.32mi
503 N Queen St Kinston, NC	1.0–2.0	2.0	759	$723	$0.95	13d	8	1.38mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $39,000 Active 60 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $39,000 Active 59 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $39,000 Active 58 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $39,000 Active 57 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,000 Active 56 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $39,000 Active 54 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $39,000 Active 53 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $39,000 Active 50 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $39,000 Active 49 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $39,000 Active 48 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $39,000 Active 47 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $39,000 Active 44 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $39,000 Active 43 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $39,000 Active 42 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $39,000 Active 41 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $39,000 Active 40 DOM
17. 2026-05-14
    status Pending
18. 2026-05-13
    price $39,000
19. 2026-05-01
    price $45,000
20. 2026-04-07
    listed $55,000 Active
21. 2019-01-16
    historical
22. 2019-01-15
    listed $8,000
23. 2018-03-13
    soldstatus $10,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $413 · $34/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $413 · $34/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,499
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,185
• − Property taxes: −$413
• − Insurance: −$195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$760
• − Management: −$760
• − Depreciation: −$1,135
• Taxable income: $4,053
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$973
• After-tax cash flow: $3,470/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lenoir County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3702610
• Math proficiency: 29% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $34,958
• Composite: 25.17/100
• National rank: #7515
• State rank: #147 of 178 in NC

Livability — Kinston

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #640
• US rank: #23267

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kinston, NC
• City population: 20,407
• Population (ZIP): 18,112

Population outlook (Lenoir County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,002 people
• By 2030: 53,048 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 49,041 · -10.8%
• By 2050: 45,136 · -17.9%
• By 2075: 36,547 · -33.6%
• By 2100: 27,731 · -49.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 62% White 26% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Lenoir

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.8) · D 46.2% · R 53.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.7pp toward R · 2008: -0.1pp · 2024: -6.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.8 2020: R+3.5 2016: R+6.3 2012: R+1.5 2008: R+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.17%
• Current HPI: 193.3213
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+290.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — Hive MLS
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $39,000 Hive MLS
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $45,000 Hive MLS
• 2026-04-07 Listed $55,000 Hive MLS
• 2019-01-16 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2019-01-15 Listed $8,000 Hive MLS
• 2018-03-13 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $413 · +17.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.