404 Oak St · Lone Rock, IA 50559

$90,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,232 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1967 10,000 sqft lot Est $100k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.7/30.0
• ARV discount +11.9/15.0
• DSCR +9.8/10.0
• Appreciation +7.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice ranch home on a large lot. All main level living is being offered that included the kitchen with appliances, separate dining room, bright living room, office, 2 bedrooms, nice sized full bath and the laundry. There is a shower and stool in the basement along with lots of storage. Double attached garage. Steel siding and central air.

Key facts

• Close to the park
• Tile drainage system
• Large storage room

Tags

• MAIN-FLOOR LAUNDRY
• WOODEN DECK
• TILE DRAINAGE SYSTEM
• LARGE STORAGE ROOM
• CLOSE TO THE PARK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $273 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $89k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#697 in IA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, health & safety C-, commute D.
• North Union Community School District (rural): math 68% / reading 83% proficiency, ranked #73 of 289 in IA (top 25%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 2 active listings in the ZIP; 15 units permitted in Kossuth County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($622 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (5.2% local appreciation)).
• Kossuth County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (5.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($89k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (28%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $75k; 20% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $88,650 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.99%
• DSCR: 1.58
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $99,792
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
404 Oak St	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,232 (0%)	1mo	$100,000	$81	97

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.24% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.56×
• Total profit: $39,347
• Equity at exit: $52,344

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.10×
• Total profit: $103,307
• Equity at exit: $91,469

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Iowa: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; mostly landlord-friendly statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 50559

• Home prices YoY: 4.4%
• Active inventory: 2
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,033 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$34 /mo · $405/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$217
• Net cashflow: $273

Break-even live

Break-even rent $688

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $324	-5% $298	+0% $273	+5% $247	+10% $222
Rent	-10% $191	-5% $232	+0% $273	+5% $314	+10% $354
Rate	-1.0pp $318	-0.5pp $296	base $273	+0.5pp $249	+1.0pp $226

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-07
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-13
   price $90,000
3. 2026-03-12
   listed $125,000 Active
4. 2023-07-27
   soldstatus $75,000
5. 2019-08-13
   soldstatus $35,000 339-char remark

   Show marketing remark (339 chars)

   Nice ranch home on a large lot. All main level living is being offered that included the kitchen with appliances, separate dining room, bright living room, office, 2 bedrooms, nice sized full bath and the laundry. There is a shower and stool in the basement along with lots of storage. Double attached garage. Steel siding and central air.

6. 2018-11-12
   listed $39,900 339-char remark

   Show marketing remark (339 chars)

   Nice ranch home on a large lot. All main level living is being offered that included the kitchen with appliances, separate dining room, bright living room, office, 2 bedrooms, nice sized full bath and the laundry. There is a shower and stool in the basement along with lots of storage. Double attached garage. Steel siding and central air.

7. 2007-01-09
   soldstatus $35,000
8. 2004-07-30
   soldstatus $27,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $405 · $34/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $909 · $76/mo
• Expected delta: +$504/yr (+$42/mo · 124.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,395
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$405
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$992
• − Management: −$992
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $1,897
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$455
• After-tax cash flow: $2,818/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Union Community School District
• NCES district ID: 1903850
• Math proficiency: 68% ▲ 8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 83% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $49,521
• Composite: 63.83/100
• National rank: #592
• State rank: #73 of 289 in IA

Livability — Lone Rock

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #697
• US rank: #16261

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lone Rock, IA
• Population (ZIP): 321

Population outlook (Kossuth County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,667 people
• By 2030: 14,445 · -1.5%
• By 2040: 14,093 · -3.9%
• By 2050: 13,825 · -5.7%
• By 2075: 14,039 · -4.3%
• By 2100: 13,662 · -6.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Scottish 17% Portuguese 12% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Kossuth

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.2) · D 27.3% · R 71.4% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -47.4pp toward R · 2008: 3.2pp · 2024: -44.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.2 2020: R+39.4 2016: R+36.5 2012: R+12.3 2008: D+3.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.24%
• Current HPI: 123.7905
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$16B
▸Retail / Convenience	1	$15B

Price history

+227.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Pending — IAR
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $90,000 IAR
• 2026-03-12 Listed $125,000 IAR
• 2023-07-27 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 2019-08-13 Sold (MLS) $35,000 Iowa Great Lakes BOR
• 2018-11-12 Listed $39,900 Iowa Great Lakes BOR
• 2007-01-09 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records
• 2004-07-30 Sold (Public Records) $27,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $405 · -45.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.