9713 Joliet Ave · Lubbock, TX 79423

$159,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,589 sqft · Townhouse public records · 113 Days on market

Built 2003 3,638 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This Raintree townhome is perfect for owner-occupants or as an investment opportunity. Featuring 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, a 2-car garage, and a basement, it's an amazing buy and a great way to start or grow your investment portfolio.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2003
• Listed 113 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $87 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $154k (3.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $146k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Honey El (math 67% / reading 62%, grade B, #257 of 4,322 statewide, top 6%, 420 students, 48% FRL); Evans Middle (math 34% / reading 43%, grade F, #704 of 1,662 statewide, top 43%, 799 students, 58% FRL); Monterey H S (math 28% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,114 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 673 active listings in the ZIP; 39 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 113 days — a 9% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,509 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 113 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.35%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.13% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-21,635
• Equity at exit: $23,842

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-16,892
• Equity at exit: $13,825

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79423

• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 673
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,536 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$221 /mo · $2,652/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$323
• Net cashflow: $87

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,426

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $178	-5% $133	+0% $87	+5% $42	+10% $-3
Rent	-10% $-34	-5% $27	+0% $87	+5% $148	+10% $209
Rate	-1.0pp $168	-0.5pp $128	base $87	+0.5pp $46	+1.0pp $4

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 39 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9715 Joliet Ave Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1589	$1,400	$0.88	45d	1	0.03mi
9818 Jordan Ave Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1497	$1,500	$1.00	45d	1	0.21mi
9001 Indiana Ave Unit C Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1100	$699	$0.64	45d	1	0.46mi
8601 Memphis Dr Unit A 8 Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.5	1069	$1,150	$1.08	45d	1	0.54mi
8604 Jordan Dr Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1855	$1,900	$1.02	45d	1	0.61mi
3101 99th St Unit 1 Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1694	$1,350	$0.80	45d	1	0.64mi
3417 83rd Dr Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1642	$1,650	$1.00	23d	1	0.79mi
3203 109th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,300	$0.93	45d	1	0.82mi
2909 106th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1646	$1,750	$1.06	23d	1	0.88mi
3203 110th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1191	$1,350	$1.13	23d	1	0.88mi
3108 110th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1231	$1,325	$1.08	23d	1	0.89mi
3106 110th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1151	$1,275	$1.11	15d	1	0.90mi
3102 110th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,250	$1.04	23d	1	0.91mi
3101 110th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1193	$1,225	$1.03	23d	1	0.94mi
3108 111th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,300	$0.93	45d	1	0.94mi
3204 112th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1602	$1,450	$0.91	45d	1	0.97mi
3112 112th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1421	$1,395	$0.98	15d	1	0.99mi
8219 Elkridge Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1405	$1,475	$1.05	45d	1	1.03mi
8216 Elkridge Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,550	$1.10	23d	1	1.03mi
4416 105th St Unit 2 Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1873	$2,200	$1.17	15d	1	1.07mi
10509 Quinton Ave Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1840	$1,750	$0.95	23d	1	1.08mi
4424 105th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.5	1452	$1,575	$1.08	15d	1	1.11mi
4419 106th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.5	1960	$1,725	$0.88	45d	1	1.14mi
3311 79th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1391	$1,249	$0.90	45d	1	1.14mi
4423 106th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.5	1737	$1,650	$0.95	15d	1	1.16mi
2530 107th Dr Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1265	$1,449	$1.15	45d	1	1.16mi
2415 93rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1692	$1,650	$0.98	23d	1	1.19mi
8310 Raleigh Ave Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,300	$0.92	15d	1	1.28mi
2523 110th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1127	$1,500	$1.33	45d	1	1.28mi
2518 111th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,450	$1.04	23d	1	1.29mi
2623 113th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1608	$1,599	$0.99	15d	1	1.30mi
2510 112th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1365	$1,475	$1.08	23d	1	1.36mi
3618 119th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.5	2167	$2,950	$1.36	23d	1	1.39mi
2612 81st St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1150	$1,100	$0.96	45d	1	1.39mi
2501 111th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1365	$1,475	$1.08	23d	1	1.39mi
3307 74th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.5	2024	$1,540	$0.76	45d	1	1.42mi
3107 75th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1400	$1,250	$0.89	23d	1	1.42mi
2403 87th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1158	$1,300	$1.12	15d	1	1.43mi
2218 88th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1311	$1,450	$1.11	45d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $159,900 Active 113 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,900 Active 110 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,900 Active 109 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,900 Active 108 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,900 Active 107 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $159,900 Active 105 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,900 Active 104 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $159,900 Active 102 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,900 Active 101 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $159,900 Active 100 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $159,900 Active 99 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $159,900 Active 96 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,900 Active 95 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,900 Active 94 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,900 Active 93 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,900 Active 92 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $159,900 Active 91 DOM
18. 2026-02-26
    listed $159,900 Active 233-char remark

    Show marketing remark (233 chars)

    This Raintree townhome is perfect for owner-occupants or as an investment opportunity. Featuring 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, a 2-car garage, and a basement, it's an amazing buy and a great way to start or grow your investment portfolio.

19. 2025-12-29
    historical $1,250
20. 2025-12-06
    price $1,250
21. 2025-11-13
    price $1,300
22. 2025-08-21
    listed $1,350
23. 2024-06-14
    historical $1,350
24. 2024-05-31
    listed $1,350
25. 2011-05-20
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,652 · $221/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,926 · $244/mo
• Expected delta: +$274/yr (+$23/mo · 10.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,436
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$2,652
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,475
• − Management: −$1,475
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable loss: −$1,574
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$378
• After-tax cash flow: $1,428/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 46,998
• Household income: $84,933
• Rent vs Own: 28.8% rent · 71.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1385.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 15% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 13% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -155.00%
• Current HPI: 213.6491
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.13%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+11744.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-26 Listed $159,900 LARMLS
• 2025-12-29 Rental Removed $1,250 LARMLS
• 2025-12-06 Price Changed $1,250 LARMLS
• 2025-11-13 Price Changed $1,300 LARMLS
• 2025-08-21 Listed for Rent $1,350 LARMLS
• 2024-06-14 Rental Removed $1,350 LARMLS
• 2024-05-31 Listed for Rent $1,350 LARMLS
• 2011-05-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,652 · -13.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.