1811 S 4th St · Rockford, IL 61104

$90,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,890 sqft · SingleFamily · 15 Days on market

Built 1910 5,227 sqft lot $48/sqft · at area comps Est $87k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +5.7/15.0
• Rent growth +4.9/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this charming single family brick home, featuring hardwood flooring throughout the main level and all bedrooms. The property offers four bedrooms, one full bathroom on the upper level, and a convenient half bath on the main floor. A one car detached garage provides additional storage and parking. This home presents a wonderful opportunity for new owners to add their personal touch and bring this property back to life.

Key facts

• 5,227 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1910

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; 2-story house; Residential property
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Hot water heating
• Interior features: Gas cooktop; Gas water heater; Full basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $701 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $89k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.6% vs local median 6.1% in Rockford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#876 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Rockford SD 205 (urban): math 12% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #533 of 620 in IL (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Constance Lane Elementary School (math 2% / reading 2%, grade F, #1,927 of 2,056 statewide, top 100%, 573 students, 0% FRL); Abraham Lincoln Middle School (math 3% / reading 7%, grade F, #636 of 665 statewide, top 98%, 699 students, 0% FRL); Jefferson High School (math 3% / reading 9%, grade F, #608 of 693 statewide, top 88%, 2,114 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 73% district-wide (73 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.7%/yr); 69 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 285 units permitted in Winnebago County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,602/mo this rent would consume 57% of the median local household income ($34k/yr) (locally 1406% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Winnebago County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($89k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $88,650 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.78% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.38%
• DSCR: 2.49
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $86,543
• List price: $90,000
• Delta: 3.99%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1811 S 4th St	0.00mi	4/1.5	1,890 (0%)	1mo	$87,500	$46	99
1516 S 5th St	0.26mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,064 (+9%)	1mo	$168,000	$81	65
1516 S 5th St	0.26mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,064 (+9%)	1mo	$168,000	$81	65
2117 S 5th St	0.24mi	4/2.5	1,716 (-9%)	10mo	$150,000	$87	61
1807 7th St	0.23mi	4/2.0	1,642 (-13%)	12mo	$140,000	$85	56
1419 20th Ave	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,884 (-0%)	11mo	$96,000	$51	55
2204 9th St	0.55mi	4/2.0	1,725 (-9%)	7mo	$178,000	$103	52
908 8th Ave	0.72mi	4/1.5	1,770 (-6%)	10mo	$83,500	$47	48
2121 S 6th St	0.28mi	4/2.5	2,080 (+10%)	23mo	$155,000	$75	47
2117 Magnolia St	0.63mi	4/1.5	1,740 (-8%)	14mo	$130,000	$75	46
2304 10th St	0.68mi	3/1.0 (-1)	2,030 (+7%)	8mo	$165,000	$81	43
2145 Parmele St	0.66mi	4/1.0	1,620 (-14%)	12mo	$125,000	$77	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.53×
• Total profit: $38,519
• Equity at exit: $13,419

10-year hold

• IRR: 43.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.14×
• Total profit: $129,528
• Equity at exit: $7,782

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61104

• Home prices YoY: -21.4%
• Rents YoY: 9.7%
• Active inventory: 69
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,602 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$55 /mo · $665/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $701

Break-even live

Break-even rent $715

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 51%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $752	-5% $726	+0% $701	+5% $676	+10% $650
Rent	-10% $574	-5% $638	+0% $701	+5% $764	+10% $828
Rate	-1.0pp $746	-0.5pp $724	base $701	+0.5pp $678	+1.0pp $654

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2217 8th St Rockford, IL	3.0	1.0	1260	$1,500	$1.19	45d	1	0.47mi
1231 11th Ave Rockford, IL	4.0	1.0	1284	$1,450	$1.13	45d	1	0.65mi
1519 17th Ave Rockford, IL	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,600	$1.07	14d	1	0.68mi
1004 15th St Rockford, IL	4.0	1.5	1267	$1,450	$1.14	22d	1	1.24mi
1202 18th St Unit 3 Rockford, IL	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,700	$1.13	14d	1	1.35mi
333 S Gardiner Ave Unit AVE2 Rockford, IL	4.0	1.0	1306	$1,600	$1.23	45d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-05
   listed $90,000 Active 432-char remark
2. 2002-02-19
   soldstatus $63,500
3. 1991-12-06
   soldstatus $46,000
4. 1991-12-06
   soldstatus $83,500
5. 1990-10-26
   soldstatus $5,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $665 · $55/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,354 · $113/mo
• Expected delta: +$689/yr (+$57/mo · 103.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,228
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$665
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,538
• − Management: −$1,538
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $7,377
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,771
• After-tax cash flow: $6,641/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rockford SD 205
• NCES district ID: 1734510
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,533
• Composite: 12.21/100
• National rank: #9649
• State rank: #533 of 620 in IL

Livability — Rockford

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #876
• US rank: #17035

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rockford, IL
• County: Winnebago County · 147,297 people
• City population: 147,297
• Metro: Rockford, IL
• Population (ZIP): 17,222
• Household income: $33,772
• Rent vs Own: 62.2% rent · 37.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1406.0

Population outlook (Winnebago County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 271,080 people
• By 2030: 260,684 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 238,405 · -12.1%
• By 2050: 216,129 · -20.3%
• By 2075: 172,882 · -36.2%
• By 2100: 135,336 · -50.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 41% Hispanic / Latino 26% Black 25% Two or more races 13% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Portuguese 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, South Korea, Philippines
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Winnebago

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 49.0% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.8pp · 2024: 0.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.6 2020: D+2.5 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+5.7 2008: D+12.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -63.40%
• Current HPI: 233.0219
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.67%
• Metro: Rockford, IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+1636.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Sold (Public Records) $86,833 Public Records
• 2026-05-29 Sold (MLS) $87,500 NWIAR
• 2026-05-20 Pending — NWIAR
• 2026-05-05 Listed $90,000 NWIAR
• 2002-02-19 Sold (Public Records) $63,500 Public Records
• 1991-12-06 Sold (Public Records) $83,500 Public Records
• 1991-12-06 Sold (Public Records) $46,000 Public Records
• 1990-10-26 Sold (Public Records) $5,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $665 · -65.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.