12139 Orchard Grove Way · Lehigh Acres, FL 33974

$314,449

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,174 sqft · SingleFamily · 3 Days on market

Built 2026 Est $320k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.2/15.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Rent growth +1.3/5.0

Listing remarks

This single-story home shares an open layout between the kitchen, dining room and family room for easy entertaining. A luxe owner's suite is in the rear of the home and comes complete with an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, ideal for overnight guests or residents needing additional privacy, as well as a flex space that can transform to meet the household's needs.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Flex space
• Open layout

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• FLEX SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $314,449

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family new construction, Dawn plan
• Construction: Built 2026 (new construction)
• Exterior features: Address: 12139 Orchard Grove Way, Lehigh Acres, FL 33974

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area (2,174 living area); New construction, Spec home (Dawn plan)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $314k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-306 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $270k (14.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $236k (24.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $236k (24.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#826 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Veterans Park Academy For The Arts (math 41% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,366 of 2,144 statewide, top 64%, 2,133 students, 36% FRL); Oak Hammock Middle School (math 43% / reading 41%, grade D-, #340 of 571 statewide, top 61%, 1,563 students, 56% FRL); Lehigh Senior High School (math 23% / reading 45%, grade F, #394 of 667 statewide, top 60%, 2,476 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.7%/yr); 2476 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $34k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $31k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$54k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $236,294 (24.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.18%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $319,578
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11893 Savanna Lakes Blvd	0.13mi	4/3.0	2,174 (0%)	2mo	$299,000	$138	92
11926 Savanna Lakes Blvd	0.18mi	4/3.0	2,174 (0%)	1mo	$305,000	$140	91
19550 Fairhill Ct	0.31mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,112 (-3%)	6mo	$269,000	$127	69
19755 Garden Ridge Ct	0.23mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,112 (-3%)	11mo	$270,000	$128	68
19562 Fairhill Ct	0.29mi	4/2.5	1,874 (-14%)	6mo	$269,298	$144	57
19783 Garden Ridge Ct	0.29mi	4/2.5	1,871 (-14%)	17mo	$320,000	$171	47
330 Martesse Cir	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,033 (-6%)	4mo	$299,000	$147	44
12462 Amber Waves Rd	0.51mi	4/2.0	1,941 (-11%)	18mo	$350,000	$180	39
222 Portia St	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,854 (-15%)	12mo	$420,000	$227	32
20081 Green Pastures Rd	0.70mi	4/2.5	1,870 (-14%)	19mo	$345,298	$185	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.65×
• Total profit: $144,856
• Equity at exit: $283,281

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.88×
• Total profit: $429,592
• Equity at exit: $610,905

Cash invested: $88,046 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33974

• Home prices YoY: 5.8%
• Rents YoY: -4.7%
• Active inventory: 2476
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,363 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,649
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$393 /mo · $4,717/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$496
• Net cashflow: $-306

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,751

Max offer price $270,118

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-89	-5% $-198	+0% $-306	+5% $-415	+10% $-524
Rent	-10% $-493	-5% $-400	+0% $-306	+5% $-213	+10% $-120
Rate	-1.0pp $-148	-0.5pp $-226	base $-306	+0.5pp $-388	+1.0pp $-471

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,612
• Closing costs: $9,433
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11634 Savanna Lakes Blvd Lehigh Acres, FL	5.0	3.0	2451	$2,650	$1.08	23d	1	0.05mi
11918 Savanna Lakes Blvd Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1484	$2,000	$1.35	25d	1	0.17mi
19750 Garden Ridge Ct Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.5	1400	$2,200	$1.57	25d	1	0.24mi
19542 Fairhill Ct Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1429	$1,700	$1.19	25d	1	0.33mi
304 Preston St Unit 304 Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1519	$2,350	$1.55	25d	1	0.40mi
304 Preston St Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1590	$2,150	$1.35	5d	1	0.41mi
418 Pickford Ave Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1937	$2,450	$1.26	25d	1	0.43mi
11621 Savanna Lakes Blvd Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	3.0	2174	$2,200	$1.01	17d	1	0.45mi
11613 Savanna Lakes Blvd Lehigh Acres, FL	5.0	3.0	2451	$2,700	$1.10	17d	1	0.45mi
19882 Green Pasture Rd Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1942	$2,350	$1.21	25d	1	0.52mi
19931 Green Pasture Rd Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1817	$2,248	$1.24	25d	1	0.56mi
12312 Amber Waves Rd Unit NA Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1941	$2,325	$1.20	25d	1	0.57mi
12312 Amber Waves Rd Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1937	$2,325	$1.20	21d	1	0.57mi
438 Poplar St Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1640	$2,150	$1.31	5d	1	0.59mi
19972 Green Pasture Rd Lehigh Acres, FL	5.0	2.5	2959	$3,000	$1.01	23d	1	0.61mi
20012 Petrucka Cir N Unit D Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1517	$1,750	$1.15	25d	1	0.66mi
20050 Caroline Creek Pl Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.5	1885	$2,300	$1.22	25d	1	0.67mi
12321 Dakota Ridge Pl Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1448	$1,850	$1.28	16d	1	0.68mi
12441 Dakota Ridge Pl Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.5	1885	$2,150	$1.14	25d	1	0.70mi
437 Reading St Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1833	$1,795	$0.98	3d	1	0.73mi
19949 Lake Vista Cir N #1 Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1442	$1,800	$1.25	25d	1	0.74mi
19949 Lake Vista Cir Unit 16C Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1517	$1,600	$1.05	25d	1	0.75mi
19933 Lake Vista Cir Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1776	$1,750	$0.99	21d	1	0.78mi
20190 Caroline Creek Pl Unit 250 Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1448	$1,900	$1.31	5d	1	0.78mi
20190 Caroline Creek Pl Unit 250 Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1448	$2,200	$1.52	25d	1	0.78mi
335 Parish Dr Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	3.0	2205	$2,390	$1.08	12d	1	0.80mi
208 Pembroke St Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1545	$2,100	$1.36	25d	1	0.82mi
337 Marabou Dr Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1850	$2,300	$1.24	5d	1	0.86mi
351 Ranchito Ave Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,000	$1.33	25d	1	0.89mi
333 Pinehurst Ave Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1545	$2,100	$1.36	25d	1	0.90mi
20055 Lake Vista Cir N Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1442	$1,700	$1.18	25d	1	0.93mi
334 Ranch Ave Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1645	$2,150	$1.31	5d	1	0.93mi
337 Rancho Ave Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1723	$2,150	$1.25	25d	1	0.96mi
507 Peerless Cir Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1408	$2,100	$1.49	25d	1	0.99mi
507 Peerless Cir Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1408	$2,000	$1.42	5d	1	0.99mi
467 Raymer St Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1833	$1,850	$1.01	12d	1	0.99mi
227 Pennfield St Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1732	$2,275	$1.31	25d	1	1.04mi
633 Alabama Rd S Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	2422	$1,500	$0.62	25d	1	1.08mi
477 Rayford St Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	3.0	1715	$2,000	$1.17	25d	1	1.08mi
722 La Plata Ave Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1770	$1,900	$1.07	17d	1	1.09mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $314,449 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $314,449 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   remarks 432-char remark
4. 2026-06-16
   listed $314,449 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,355
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,614
• − Property taxes: −$4,717
• − Insurance: −$1,572
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,268
• − Management: −$2,268
• − Depreciation: −$9,148
• Taxable loss: −$9,232
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,216
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,461/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lehigh Acres

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #826
• US rank: #20055

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lehigh Acres, FL
• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 130,638
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 19,927
• Household income: $72,192
• Rent vs Own: 27.3% rent · 72.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 434.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% Two or more races 31% White 26% Black 18%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 20% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 7% Italian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 43% French/Haitian/Cajun 7% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.53%
• Current HPI: 303.3399
• Rent YoY: ▼ -4.68%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B