415 Chestnut St · Lexington-Fayette, KY 40508

$117,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,024 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 55 Days on market

Built 1910 3,920 sqft lot Est $183k · 36% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.6/10.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This fixer upper has lots of character and is ready for energetic and opportunistic buyer. Motivated seller wants offers. Selling As-Is. Zoned R-3

Key facts

• 3,920 sq ft lot
• Built 1910
• Listed 54 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Sewer available; Other utilities available
• Home design: Single-family zoning (R-1)
• Construction: Total building area approximately 3,780
• Exterior features: Shingle roof

Interior

• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Heat pump cooling
• Interior features: Heat pump provides both heating and cooling

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $117k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $341 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $117k).
• Recommended offer: $113k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 3.8% in Lexington-Fayette — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fayette County (urban): math 35% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #27 of 165 in KY (top 16%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: William Wells Brown Elementary (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #648 of 676 statewide, top 98%, 308 students, 86% FRL); Lexington Trad Magnet School (math 11% / reading 29%, grade F, #206 of 217 statewide, top 95%, 296 students, 81% FRL); Lafayette High School (math 47% / reading 54%, grade D+, #10 of 254 statewide, top 4%, 2,432 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 44% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 27% at this address vs 40% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Fayette County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.8%/yr); 82 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,036 units permitted in Fayette County in 2024 (542 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $809 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fayette County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask is 17% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $5k; list at $117k implies a 2240% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $113,490 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.51%
• DSCR: 1.56
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $183,296
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
443 Ohio St	0.08mi	2/1.0	1,063 (+4%)	3mo	$151,000	$142	87
336 Ohio St	0.11mi	2/1.0	1,100 (+7%)	4mo	$159,990	$145	79
570 Ohio St	0.27mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,014 (-1%)	1mo	$145,000	$143	76
443 Chestnut St	0.06mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,144 (+12%)	1mo	$109,900	$96	72
635 N Martin Luther King Blvd	0.44mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,035 (+1%)	2mo	$185,000	$179	71
330 Corral St	0.33mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,056 (+3%)	11mo	$165,000	$156	66
545 North Limestone	0.46mi	2/1.0	1,008 (-2%)	12mo	$245,000	$243	66
650 N Martin Luther King Blvd	0.44mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,090 (+6%)	3mo	$215,000	$197	57
564 Ohio St	0.26mi	2/1.0	881 (-14%)	11mo	$126,000	$143	56
220 W 6th St	0.58mi	2/2.0	960 (-6%)	4mo	$221,000	$230	55
812 Cramer Ave	0.72mi	2/1.0	940 (-8%)	1mo	$292,000	$311	52
125 Rand Ave	0.41mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,130 (+10%)	10mo	$305,000	$270	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $10,499
• Equity at exit: $17,445

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.21×
• Total profit: $72,242
• Equity at exit: $10,116

Cash invested: $32,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40508

• Rents YoY: 11.8%
• Active inventory: 82
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,456 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$614
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$146 /mo · $1,755/yr
• Insurance: −$49
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$306
• Net cashflow: $341

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,023

Max offer price $117,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $422	-5% $382	+0% $341	+5% $301	+10% $261
Rent	-10% $226	-5% $284	+0% $341	+5% $399	+10% $456
Rate	-1.0pp $400	-0.5pp $371	base $341	+0.5pp $311	+1.0pp $280

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,250
• Closing costs: $3,510
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
425 Hawkins Ave Lexington, KY	3.0	1.5	1124	$1,570	$1.40	14d	1	0.04mi
426 E Fifth St Unit Z1 Lexington, KY	2.0	1.0	719	$1,195	$1.66	24d	1	0.11mi
500 Ohio St Unit 3 Lexington, KY	1.0	1.0	825	$695	$0.84	14d	1	0.13mi
434 N Martin Luther King Blvd #201 Lexington, KY	2.0	2.0	950	$1,450	$1.53	24d	1	0.25mi
246 Warnock St Lexington, KY	2.0	1.0	810	$1,195	$1.48	24d	1	0.26mi
236 Warnock St Lexington, KY	3.0	1.0	1028	$2,200	$2.14	24d	1	0.27mi
211 E Sixth St Lexington, KY	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,500	$1.07	24d	1	0.34mi
658 Elm Tree Ln Lexington, KY	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,800	$1.33	24d	1	0.39mi
231 Walton Ave Unit 206 Lexington, KY	2.0	2.0	1178	$1,700	$1.44	24d	1	0.45mi
214 E Seventh St Lexington, KY	2.0	1.0	832	$1,000	$1.20	24d	1	0.45mi
706 Lancaster Ave Lexington, KY	3.0	3.0	1050	$1,495	$1.42	14d	1	0.46mi
653 Jackson St Lexington, KY	2.0	1.0	839	$1,295	$1.54	14d	1	0.50mi
222 W Sixth St Lexington, KY	3.0	1.5	1050	$1,150	$1.10	24d	1	0.58mi
444 N Broadway Lexington, KY	3.0	1.0	1160	$1,595	$1.38	24d	1	0.63mi
170 E Loudon Ave Unit 2 Lexington, KY	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,350	$0.90	24d	1	0.66mi
325 W 6th St Lexington, KY	1.0	1.0	900	$1,300	$1.44	24d	1	0.66mi
120 E Main St Lexington, KY	2.0	1.0–2.0	710	$2,486	$3.50	14d	20	0.66mi
143 Woodland Ave Lexington, KY	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,650	$1.50	24d	1	0.68mi
161 E Loudon Ave Lexington, KY	2.0	1.0	1118	$1,300	$1.16	24d	1	0.69mi
341 Grosvenor Ave #4 Lexington, KY	3.0	3.0	859	$2,600	$3.03	24d	1	0.75mi
341 Grosvenor Ave Unit 1 Lexington, KY	3.0	2.0	700	$2,050	$2.93	24d	1	0.75mi
341 Grosvenor Ave Unit 3 Lexington, KY	3.0	3.0	875	$2,500	$2.86	24d	1	0.75mi
51 Mentelle Park Unit 4 Lexington, KY	1.0	1.0	1000	$1,060	$1.06	14d	1	0.81mi
115 W Loudon Ave Unit L97 Lexington, KY	3.0	2.0	960	$980	$1.02	24d	1	0.87mi
261 S Limestone #303 Lexington, KY	2.0	2.0	1102	$2,995	$2.72	24d	1	0.90mi
444 Jefferson St Unit A Lexington, KY	2.0	2.0	1220	$1,950	$1.60	14d	1	0.90mi
275 S Limestone #115 Lexington, KY	2.0	2.0	1010	$2,500	$2.48	24d	1	0.90mi
275 S Limestone #135 Lexington, KY	3.0	2.0	1142	$2,950	$2.58	14d	1	0.90mi
330 Rose St Lexington, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0	627	$1,450	$2.31	24d	1	0.93mi
811 Shelby Ave Unit Z1 Lexington, KY	2.0	1.0	792	$1,224	$1.55	14d	1	0.93mi
303 Owsley Ave Lexington, KY	3.0	2.0	1188	$2,100	$1.77	14d	1	0.95mi
355 S Broadway #305 Lexington, KY	2.0	2.0	1436	$2,900	$2.02	24d	1	1.01mi
345 Blackburn Ave Lexington, KY	2.0	2.0	946	$1,925	$2.03	14d	1	1.03mi
458 Morgan Ave Lexington, KY	3.0	1.0	1275	$1,325	$1.04	24d	1	1.12mi
161 Preston Ave #3 Lexington, KY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,500	$1.67	14d	1	1.12mi
1211 N Limestone Lexington, KY	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,050	$0.81	24d	1	1.13mi
1105 Sparks Rd Lexington, KY	3.0	1.0	1302	$1,575	$1.21	24d	1	1.13mi
411 Morgan Ave Lexington, KY	3.0	2.0	1160	$1,600	$1.38	21d	1	1.14mi
330 Newtown Pike Lexington, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	976	$1,205	$1.23	24d	1	1.16mi
232 Bassett Ave Lexington, KY	2.0	1.0	989	$1,495	$1.51	14d	1	1.18mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $117,000 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $117,000 Active 54 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $117,000 Active 53 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $117,000 Active 52 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $117,000 Active 50 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $117,000 Active 49 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $117,000 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $117,000 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $117,000 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $117,000 Active 44 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $117,000 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $117,000 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $117,000 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $117,000 Active 38 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $117,000 Active 37 DOM
16. 2026-05-06
    price $117,000
17. 2026-04-28
    price $119,999
18. 2026-04-24
    listed $99,999 Active
19. 2016-05-03
    soldstatus $5,000 Sold 146-char remark

    Show marketing remark (146 chars)

    This fixer upper has lots of character and is ready for energetic and opportunistic buyer. Motivated seller wants offers. Selling As-Is. Zoned R-3

20. 2016-04-15
    status Pending 146-char remark

    Show marketing remark (146 chars)

    This fixer upper has lots of character and is ready for energetic and opportunistic buyer. Motivated seller wants offers. Selling As-Is. Zoned R-3

21. 2016-03-25
    listed $20,000 Active 146-char remark

    Show marketing remark (146 chars)

    This fixer upper has lots of character and is ready for energetic and opportunistic buyer. Motivated seller wants offers. Selling As-Is. Zoned R-3

22. 2007-11-07
    soldstatus $16,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,468
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,554
• − Property taxes: −$1,755
• − Insurance: −$585
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,397
• − Management: −$1,397
• − Depreciation: −$3,404
• Taxable income: $2,375
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$570
• After-tax cash flow: $3,527/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fayette County
• NCES district ID: 2101860
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $49,245
• Composite: 34.38/100
• National rank: #5211
• State rank: #27 of 165 in KY

Livability — Lexington-Fayette

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lexington-Fayette, KY
• County: Fayette County · 317,143 people
• City population: 321,882
• Metro: Lexington-Fayette, KY
• Population (ZIP): 23,756
• Household income: $29,440
• Rent vs Own: 70.5% rent · 29.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 2644.0

Population outlook (Fayette County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 363,454 people
• By 2030: 388,270 · +6.8%
• By 2040: 438,688 · +20.7%
• By 2050: 490,667 · +35.0%
• By 2075: 625,394 · +72.1%
• By 2100: 721,354 · +98.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 22% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 8% Chinese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fayette

• 2024 margin: D (+18.1) · D 58.0% · R 39.9% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +13.3pp toward D · 2008: 4.8pp · 2024: 18.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.1 2020: D+20.8 2016: D+9.5 2012: D+1.0 2008: D+4.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -251.04%
• Current HPI: 204.3994
• Rent YoY: ▲ 11.83%
• Metro: Lexington-Fayette, KY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+631.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $117,000 ImagineMLS
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $119,999 ImagineMLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $99,999 ImagineMLS
• 2016-05-03 Sold (MLS) $5,000 ImagineMLS
• 2016-04-15 Pending — ImagineMLS
• 2016-03-25 Listed $20,000 ImagineMLS
• 2007-11-07 Sold (Public Records) $16,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-49.1%/yr

Latest (2015): $121 · -49.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.