211 Avenue D · Abernathy, TX 79311

$46,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,124 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1935 0.33 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity awaits at 211 Ave D, Abernathy, TX. This property is in need of significant repairs and updates, making it an ideal project for investors, flippers, or landlords looking to add value. With the right vision and renovation plan, this property has the potential to become a profitable fix-and-flip or a strong cash-flowing rental. Situated in an established neighborhood, this home offers a chance to build equity through improvements and capitalize on the growing demand for affordable housing in the area. Whether you're an experienced investor or looking for your next renovation project, this property presents a value-add opportunity with plenty of upside. Seller does not own the real

Key facts

• 0.33 acre lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1935

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual tax listed

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (2 spaces)
• Utilities: Asphalt-paved public road access; City street frontage
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Fixer condition
• Construction: Composition roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Construction materials listed as unknown; Built on a 0.33-acre lot
• Exterior features: No notable exterior features listed; No fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Other appliances
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: No heating; No cooling
• Interior features: Other interior features

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $46k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $730 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $46k).
• Recommended offer: $45k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#88 in TX, #3,080 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Abernathy ISD (town): math 47% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #242 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Abernathy El (math 52% / reading 52%, grade C-, #742 of 4,322 statewide, top 19%, 411 students, 49% FRL); Abernathy Middle (math 47% / reading 42%, grade D, #491 of 1,662 statewide, top 31%, 180 students, 50% FRL); Abernathy H S (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #821 of 1,632 statewide, top 53%, 243 students, 45% FRL).
• Market conditions: 50 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($318 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($45k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $45,310 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.82% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 68.04%
• DSCR: 4.03
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 79.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.56×
• Total profit: $71,569
• Equity at exit: $41,440

10-year hold

• IRR: 73.4%
• Equity multiple: 14.52×
• Total profit: $174,189
• Equity at exit: $89,368

Cash invested: $12,880 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79311

• Home prices YoY: 5.7%
• Active inventory: 50
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,295 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$241
• Tax from tax record: −$32 /mo · $389/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$272
• Net cashflow: $730

Break-even live

Break-even rent $371

Max offer price $46,000

Occupancy floor 39%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $756	-5% $743	+0% $730	+5% $717	+10% $704
Rent	-10% $628	-5% $679	+0% $730	+5% $781	+10% $833
Rate	-1.0pp $753	-0.5pp $742	base $730	+0.5pp $718	+1.0pp $706

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,500
• Closing costs: $1,380
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1005 East St Abernathy, TX	3.0	2.0	1220	$1,295	$1.06	14d	1	0.82mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-08
   days on market $46,000 Active 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $46,000 Active 18 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $51,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   remarks 699-char remark
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $51,000 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $51,000 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $51,000 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-05-30
   days on market $51,000 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-05-20
   listed $56,710 Active
10. 2017-05-15
    soldstatus
11. 2010-01-08
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $389 · $32/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $842 · $70/mo
• Expected delta: +$453/yr (+$38/mo · 116.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥99°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,540
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,577
• − Property taxes: −$389
• − Insurance: −$230
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,243
• − Management: −$1,243
• − Depreciation: −$1,338
• Taxable income: $8,520
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,045
• After-tax cash flow: $6,718/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Abernathy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807410
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $49,776
• Composite: 39.87/100
• National rank: #3862
• State rank: #242 of 826 in TX

Livability — Abernathy

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #88
• US rank: #3080

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Abernathy, TX
• Population (ZIP): 3,533

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 42% Two or more races 8% Native American 4% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 20% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.13%
• Current HPI: 244.4163
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $56,710 LARMLS
• 2017-05-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2010-01-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-8.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $389 · -2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.