1821 La Mesa Ln · San Angelo, TX 76905

$198,300

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,569 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 39 Days on market

Built 1995 6,316 sqft lot $126/sqft · 5% above area Est $188k · 5% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.6/30.0
• ARV discount +5.1/15.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Very well kept 4 bedroom 2.5 bath home on a quiet street in a friendly neighborhood close to Goodfellow AFB. This house features a large living area with fireplace, wood vinyl floor in kitchen, fresh paint throughout, new carpet in living room, nice enclosed porch and a brand new roof! Come see what this house has to offer!

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Enclosed sunroom
• Quiet neighborhood

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• ENCLOSED SUNROOM
• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD
• QUICK ACCESS TO SCHOOLS
• QUICK ACCESS TO SHOPPING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; 2-car carport; Attached garage and carport
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Residential property
• Construction: Brick and frame construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built (year not provided)
• Exterior features: Porch; Privacy fencing; Storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric water heater
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Other
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Living room fireplace; Storage
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup; Laundry located in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $198k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $45 ($545/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $191k (3.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $191k (3.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.8% in San Angelo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#199 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• San Angelo ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #627 of 826 in TX (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Belaire El (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 279 students, 72% FRL); Glenn Middle (math 25% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,177 of 1,662 statewide, top 72%, 1,258 students, 53% FRL); Central H S (math 22% / reading 43%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 3,065 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools at 58% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 181 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 233 units permitted in Tom Green County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tom Green County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($192k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $190,945 (3.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 4% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.98%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $188,443
• List price: $198,300
• Delta: 5.23%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
165 Woodruff St	0.28mi	4/2.0	1,585 (+1%)	8mo	$180,000	$114	76
1717 Evelyn Ave	0.11mi	4/2.5	1,462 (-7%)	10mo	$225,000	$154	75
817 State Court Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,615 (+3%)	4mo	$215,000	$133	67
1326 State St	0.50mi	4/2.0	1,608 (+2%)	10mo	$205,000	$127	62
1334 State St	0.49mi	4/1.5	1,608 (+2%)	10mo	$169,900	$106	61
112 Medina St	0.73mi	4/2.0	1,553 (-1%)	14mo	$269,900	$174	50
818 Van Zandt St	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,546 (-2%)	10mo	$189,000	$122	50
1025 Woodruff St	0.61mi	4/2.0	1,390 (-11%)	2mo	$227,400	$164	49
841 Van Zandt St	0.66mi	4/2.0	1,382 (-12%)	13mo	$209,000	$151	36
1207 Luna St	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,422 (-9%)	15mo	$245,000	$172	35
601 Van Zandt St	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,354 (-14%)	3mo	$225,000	$166	35
1318 Fulton St	0.67mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,344 (-14%)	13mo	$137,000	$102	23

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-29,156
• Equity at exit: $29,567

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-21,318
• Equity at exit: $17,145

Cash invested: $55,524 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76905

• Home prices YoY: -32.1%
• Active inventory: 181
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,909 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,040
• Tax from tax record: −$341 /mo · $4,087/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$401
• Net cashflow: $45

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,852

Max offer price $198,300

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $158	-5% $102	+0% $45	+5% $-11	+10% $-67
Rent	-10% $-105	-5% $-30	+0% $45	+5% $121	+10% $196
Rate	-1.0pp $145	-0.5pp $96	base $45	+0.5pp $-6	+1.0pp $-58

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,575
• Closing costs: $5,949
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1601 Cloud St San Angelo, TX	4.0	2.0	1582	$2,200	$1.39	23d	1	0.27mi
822 Stonewall Dr San Angelo, TX	4.0	2.0	1478	$1,750	$1.18	46d	1	0.37mi
1208 Clairmont St San Angelo, TX	3.0	1.5	1068	$1,250	$1.17	23d	1	0.49mi
1569 Clayton St San Angelo, TX	3.0	2.0	1372	$1,850	$1.35	46d	1	0.88mi
206 Van Zandt St San Angelo, TX	3.0	2.0	2128	$1,800	$0.85	23d	1	0.88mi
728 Spencer St San Angelo, TX	4.0	2.0	1948	$1,995	$1.02	23d	1	1.47mi
1173 Benedict Dr San Angelo, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	868	$2,106	$2.42	23d	10	1.49mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $198,300 Active 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $198,300 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $198,300 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $198,300 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $198,300 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $198,300 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $198,300 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $198,300 Active 30 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $198,300 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $198,300 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $198,300 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $198,300 Active 25 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $198,300 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $198,300 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $198,300 Active 18 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $198,300 Active 17 DOM
17. 2026-05-13
    listed $198,300 Active 513-char remark
18. 2025-11-26
    price $224,400
19. 2025-07-27
    price $229,400
20. 2025-07-27
    listed $224,900 Active
21. 2016-02-05
    soldstatus
22. 2016-02-04
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (325 chars)

    Very well kept 4 bedroom 2.5 bath home on a quiet street in a friendly neighborhood close to Goodfellow AFB. This house features a large living area with fireplace, wood vinyl floor in kitchen, fresh paint throughout, new carpet in living room, nice enclosed porch and a brand new roof! Come see what this house has to offer!

23. 2011-01-07
    soldstatus
24. 2011-01-06
    soldstatus
25. 2010-10-15
    listed $104,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,087 · $341/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,087 · $341/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 17% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,913
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,108
• − Property taxes: −$4,087
• − Insurance: −$992
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,833
• − Management: −$1,833
• − Depreciation: −$5,769
• Taxable loss: −$2,707
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$650
• After-tax cash flow: $1,194/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Angelo ISD
• NCES district ID: 4838700
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $43,501
• Composite: 25.56/100
• National rank: #7427
• State rank: #627 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Angelo

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #199
• US rank: #5030

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Angelo, TX
• County: Tom Green County · 113,188 people
• City population: 81,357
• Metro: San Angelo, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,456
• Household income: $84,712
• Rent vs Own: 28.6% rent · 71.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 307.0

Population outlook (Tom Green County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 135,110 people
• By 2030: 144,090 · +6.6%
• By 2040: 162,561 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 182,158 · +34.8%
• By 2075: 232,274 · +71.9%
• By 2100: 268,218 · +98.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 40% Two or more races 17% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 19% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tom Green

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.0) · D 25.5% · R 73.5% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.3pp toward R · 2008: -41.7pp · 2024: -48.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.0 2020: R+44.4 2016: R+47.9 2012: R+47.9 2008: R+41.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -96.60%
• Current HPI: 203.9934
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: San Angelo, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+90.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Listed $198,300 SAAR TX
• 2025-11-26 Price Changed $224,400 SAAR TX
• 2025-07-27 Price Changed $229,400 SAAR TX
• 2025-07-27 Listed $224,900 SAAR TX
• 2016-02-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-02-04 Sold (MLS) — SAAR TX
• 2011-01-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2011-01-06 Sold (MLS) — SAAR TX
• 2010-10-15 Listed $104,000 SAAR TX

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,087 · +14.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.