214 Forgham Rd · Rochester, NY 14616

$45,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,372 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1940 0.28 ac lot ↓ 44% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy people watching, summer breezes and weekend coffee from the lovely covered front porch! Larger than it looks, this vinyl sided cape offers 4 bedrooms, hardwood floors, a bright and cheery kitchen, and an awesome 245' deep VERY private sloped, wooded rear yard! Not your typical cape floor plan, the spacious center hall provides comfortable access to living room, kitchen, 2 bedrooms, bath and staircase to 2nd level. Generous master bedroom on 1st floor, cape lives like a ranch! A good sized guest bedroom on 2nd floor in addition to a perfect bedroom for office, nursery or craft room. Lots of storage too. Basement divided into Laundry area, utility area and knotty pine paneled recreation room. Long driveway means plenty of parking! No neighbors behind!

Key facts

• Private backyard
• Eat-in kitchen
• 0.28 acre lot

Tags

• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• PARTIALLY FINISHED BASEMENT
• PRIVATE BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $45k).
• Cap rate 34.3% vs local median 9.3% in Rochester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#222 in NY, #3,482 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, employment F.
• Greece Central School District (suburban): math 35% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #544 of 590 in NY (top 92%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 111 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,169 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (591 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $311 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $45,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.83% ✓
• Cap rate: 34.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 100.15%
• DSCR: 5.46
• GRM: 2.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $251,076
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
65 Villewood Dr	0.29mi	3/1.0	1,350 (-2%)	1mo	$215,000	$159	81
591 Britton Rd	0.36mi	3/1.5	1,392 (+2%)	1mo	$225,000	$162	80
60 Hilltop Rd	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-6%)	2mo	$281,000	$217	76
3583 Lake Ave	0.47mi	3/1.0	1,385 (+1%)	4mo	$165,000	$119	72
85 Mcewen Rd	0.54mi	3/2.5	1,400 (+2%)	1mo	$235,000	$168	67
80 Ripplewood Dr	0.59mi	3/1.5	1,308 (-5%)	2mo	$269,000	$206	63
236 Afton St	0.74mi	3/1.5	1,392 (+2%)	0mo	$255,000	$183	63
122 Clearview Rd	0.43mi	3/1.0	1,257 (-8%)	2mo	$151,000	$120	62
95 Ripplewood Dr	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,400 (+2%)	2mo	$290,000	$207	59
374 River Hts	0.63mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,334 (-3%)	2mo	$280,000	$210	57
43 Britton Rd	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-12%)	3mo	$177,500	$148	56
126 Marwood Rd	0.63mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,299 (-5%)	2mo	$270,000	$208	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 5.74×
• Total profit: $59,711
• Equity at exit: $6,710

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 11.98×
• Total profit: $138,343
• Equity at exit: $3,891

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14616

• Home prices YoY: -18.0%
• Active inventory: 111
• Price-to-rent: 2.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,725 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$56 /mo · $675/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$362
• Net cashflow: $1,052

Break-even live

Break-even rent $394

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 34%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
419 Britton Rd Rochester, NY	2.0	1.5	1025	$1,595	$1.56	2d	1	0.09mi
360 Britton Rd Rochester, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	837	$1,479	$1.77	2d	2	0.11mi
304 Bakerdale Rd Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1256	$1,650	$1.31	44d	1	0.13mi
4 Valley Brook Cir Greece, NY	2.0	1.5	1047	$2,306	$2.20	2d	3	0.34mi
108 Glenbrook Rd Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1088	$1,850	$1.70	23d	1	0.39mi
534-582 Denise Rd Unit 562 Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,575	$1.57	2d	1	0.53mi
44 Windsor Rd Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	882	$1,795	$2.04	2d	1	0.55mi
37 Linda Dr Unit 1 Rochester, NY	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,100	$1.31	43d	1	0.56mi
3677 Lake Ave Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	1088	$1,200	$1.10	43d	1	0.56mi
125 Windsor Rd Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	1142	$1,700	$1.49	2d	1	0.68mi
175 English Rd Rochester, NY	3.0	1.5	1194	$1,975	$1.65	43d	1	0.93mi
60 Cheltenham Rd Unit Down Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	1014	$1,300	$1.28	14d	1	1.00mi
331 Leonard Rd Rochester, NY	3.0	2.0	1157	$1,850	$1.60	3d	1	1.14mi
1255 Latta Rd Greece, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	705	$1,570	$2.23	2d	5	1.33mi
704 Rumson Rd Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,950	$1.77	3d	1	1.36mi
4302 Lake Ave Unit 1 Rochester, NY	3.0	1.5	1600	$3,000	$1.88	43d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2025-05-08
   status Pending
2. 2025-05-07
   listed $45,000 Active
3. 2017-12-06
   soldstatus $97,000
4. 2017-12-05
   soldstatus $97,000 Closed Sale or Rented 765-char remark

   Show marketing remark (765 chars)

   Enjoy people watching, summer breezes and weekend coffee from the lovely covered front porch! Larger than it looks, this vinyl sided cape offers 4 bedrooms, hardwood floors, a bright and cheery kitchen, and an awesome 245' deep VERY private sloped, wooded rear yard! Not your typical cape floor plan, the spacious center hall provides comfortable access to living room, kitchen, 2 bedrooms, bath and staircase to 2nd level. Generous master bedroom on 1st floor, cape lives like a ranch! A good sized guest bedroom on 2nd floor in addition to a perfect bedroom for office, nursery or craft room. Lots of storage too. Basement divided into Laundry area, utility area and knotty pine paneled recreation room. Long driveway means plenty of parking! No neighbors behind!

5. 2017-09-09
   status Pending Sale 765-char remark

   Show marketing remark (765 chars)

   Enjoy people watching, summer breezes and weekend coffee from the lovely covered front porch! Larger than it looks, this vinyl sided cape offers 4 bedrooms, hardwood floors, a bright and cheery kitchen, and an awesome 245' deep VERY private sloped, wooded rear yard! Not your typical cape floor plan, the spacious center hall provides comfortable access to living room, kitchen, 2 bedrooms, bath and staircase to 2nd level. Generous master bedroom on 1st floor, cape lives like a ranch! A good sized guest bedroom on 2nd floor in addition to a perfect bedroom for office, nursery or craft room. Lots of storage too. Basement divided into Laundry area, utility area and knotty pine paneled recreation room. Long driveway means plenty of parking! No neighbors behind!

6. 2017-08-11
   price $99,900 765-char remark

   Show marketing remark (765 chars)

   Enjoy people watching, summer breezes and weekend coffee from the lovely covered front porch! Larger than it looks, this vinyl sided cape offers 4 bedrooms, hardwood floors, a bright and cheery kitchen, and an awesome 245' deep VERY private sloped, wooded rear yard! Not your typical cape floor plan, the spacious center hall provides comfortable access to living room, kitchen, 2 bedrooms, bath and staircase to 2nd level. Generous master bedroom on 1st floor, cape lives like a ranch! A good sized guest bedroom on 2nd floor in addition to a perfect bedroom for office, nursery or craft room. Lots of storage too. Basement divided into Laundry area, utility area and knotty pine paneled recreation room. Long driveway means plenty of parking! No neighbors behind!

7. 2017-07-28
   listed $104,900 Active 765-char remark

   Show marketing remark (765 chars)

   Enjoy people watching, summer breezes and weekend coffee from the lovely covered front porch! Larger than it looks, this vinyl sided cape offers 4 bedrooms, hardwood floors, a bright and cheery kitchen, and an awesome 245' deep VERY private sloped, wooded rear yard! Not your typical cape floor plan, the spacious center hall provides comfortable access to living room, kitchen, 2 bedrooms, bath and staircase to 2nd level. Generous master bedroom on 1st floor, cape lives like a ranch! A good sized guest bedroom on 2nd floor in addition to a perfect bedroom for office, nursery or craft room. Lots of storage too. Basement divided into Laundry area, utility area and knotty pine paneled recreation room. Long driveway means plenty of parking! No neighbors behind!

8. 2002-08-27
   soldstatus $80,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,697
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$675
• − Insurance: −$225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,656
• − Management: −$1,656
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $12,656
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,037
• After-tax cash flow: $9,582/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Greece Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3612630
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $52,718
• Composite: 32.26/100
• National rank: #5761
• State rank: #544 of 590 in NY

Livability — Rochester

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #3482

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Monroe County · 674,131 people
• City population: 432,803
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• Population (ZIP): 26,863
• Household income: $66,499
• Rent vs Own: 28.4% rent · 71.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 789.0

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 759,460 people
• By 2030: 757,154 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 740,644 · -2.5%
• By 2050: 714,443 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 645,883 · -15.0%
• By 2100: 547,084 · -28.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 8% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 9%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Philippines, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Arabic 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: D (+19.1) · D 59.5% · R 40.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.4pp toward D · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 19.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.1 2020: D+21.0 2016: D+14.1 2012: D+17.4 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.14%
• Current HPI: 246.1703
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-43.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2025-05-08 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2025-05-07 Listed $45,000 WNYREIS
• 2017-12-06 Sold (Public Records) $97,000 Public Records
• 2017-12-05 Sold (MLS) $97,000 UNYREIS
• 2017-09-09 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2017-08-11 Price Changed $99,900 UNYREIS
• 2017-07-28 Listed $104,900 UNYREIS
• 2002-08-27 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,296 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.