16706 N County Road 1200 · Shallowater, TX 79363

$312,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,624 sqft · Other public records · 6 Days on market

Built 2024 1.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.5/30.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming 3-bed, 2-bath gem nestled on 1 acre in Shallowater! This spacious home boasts a 2-car garage, offering both convenience and ample storage. Enjoy the tranquility of rural living with the convenience of city amenities just a short drive away. The open floor plan welcomes you with abundant natural light. The kitchen features modern appliances and ample counter space. Retreat to the generous primary bedroom with an ensuite bath. Two additional bedrooms provide space for guests or a home office. The sprawling yard offers endless possibilities for outdoor activities and gardening. Don't miss this opportunity to make this peaceful haven your own! Built by Brushy Creek Homes.

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2024

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; New construction
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built new (new construction)
• Exterior features: Covered patio

Interior

• Kitchen: Disposal; Dishwasher; Microwave; Pantry; Granite counters
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric); Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Double vanity; Granite counters; Pantry; Storage; Walk-in closets; One fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $313k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-531 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $219k (30.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $196k (37.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $196k (37.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#207 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Abernathy ISD (town): math 47% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #242 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Abernathy El (math 52% / reading 52%, grade C-, #742 of 4,322 statewide, top 19%, 411 students, 49% FRL); Abernathy Middle (math 47% / reading 42%, grade D, #491 of 1,662 statewide, top 31%, 180 students, 50% FRL); Abernathy H S (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #821 of 1,632 statewide, top 53%, 243 students, 45% FRL).
• Market conditions: 116 active listings in the ZIP; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $33k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $31k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$54k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $196,240 (37.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.27%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 13.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.56×
• Total profit: $136,599
• Equity at exit: $281,885

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.89×
• Total profit: $428,797
• Equity at exit: $607,896

Cash invested: $87,612 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79363

• Home prices YoY: 7.3%
• Active inventory: 116
• Price-to-rent: 13.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,962 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,641
• Tax from tax record: −$310 /mo · $3,716/yr
• Insurance: −$130
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$412
• Net cashflow: $-531

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,634

Max offer price $219,168

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,225
• Closing costs: $9,387
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 685-char remark
2. 2026-05-05
   listed $312,900 Active 685-char remark
3. 2026-01-20
   soldstatus
4. 2025-07-09
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,716 · $310/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,726 · $477/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,010/yr (+$168/mo · 54.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,549
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,527
• − Property taxes: −$3,716
• − Insurance: −$1,564
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,884
• − Management: −$1,884
• − Depreciation: −$9,103
• Taxable loss: −$12,129
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,911
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,456/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Abernathy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807410
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $49,776
• Composite: 39.87/100
• National rank: #3862
• State rank: #242 of 826 in TX

Livability — Shallowater

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #207
• US rank: #5236

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,831

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 20%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 16%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 19.76%
• Current HPI: 289.7445
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Sold (MLS) — LARMLS
• 2026-05-11 Pending — LARMLS
• 2026-05-05 Listed $312,900 LARMLS
• 2026-01-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-07-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+307.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,716 · +1575.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.