9409 S Ocean Dr #31 · Hutchinson Island South, FL 34957

$299,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,270 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 88 Days on market

Built 1983 684 sqft lot Est $469k · 36% under $650/mo HOA · 17% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

FABULOUS BEACH AREA COMPLEX! Beautifully Maintained Community across street from BEACH on Hutchinson Island, TENNIS & COMMUNITY POOL are JUST STEPS away. This 2BR/2BA TOWNHOUSE is FRESHLY PAINTED. LOW, LOW PRICE. . GREAT LOCATION!!! PRIVATE FENCED PATIO!GREAT LAYOUT! FULL SIZE WASHER/DRYER - and SHUTTERS TOO!!! THIS COULD BE YOUR LAST CHANCE TO LIVE NEAR THE BEACH AT SUCH A LOW, LOW PRICE!!!! CALL TODAY!!!

Key facts

• $650 HOA
• 2 parking spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets allowed with restrictions (breed, number, and size limits)
• Financial info: No land lease
• HOA & community: Community association (Islad Village II); Monthly HOA fee: $650; Association amenities include beach access, clubhouse, heated pool, pool, sauna, tennis courts, pickleball courts, shuffleboard court, recreation facilities, maintained community, sidewalks, street lights, parking, library, internet included; HOA covers cable TV, insurance, internet, grounds and structure maintenance, sewer, trash, water, common areas, legal/accounting, reserve funds, roof repairs, recreation facility, and pool service

Exterior

• Parking: Open parking (2 spaces total)
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Townhouse; Two levels; Resale, updated/remodeled condition; Faces west
• Construction: Stucco / CBS (concrete block with stucco) construction; Metal roof; Block foundation; Built as part of a 2-story building
• Exterior features: Open patio; Open porch; Wood fencing; Deeded beach access

Interior

• Kitchen: Disposal; Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: No main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile; Vinyl; Wood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom (2 total bathrooms)
• Heating & cooling: Central individual heating; Central individual cooling; Attic fan; Ceiling fan(s); Electric cooling
• Interior features: Kitchen island; Walk-in closet(s); Split bedroom layout
• Laundry & utility: In-unit laundry; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $527 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $299k).
• Recommended offer: $281k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 1.9% in Hutchinson Island South — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#783 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing B; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mariposa Elementary School (math 51% / reading 50%, grade D+, #1,055 of 2,144 statewide, top 50%, 734 students, 75% FRL); Port St. Lucie High School (math 21% / reading 43%, grade F, #415 of 667 statewide, top 63%, 1,748 students, 67% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.0%/yr); 536 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,836/mo this rent would consume 65% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) (locally 946% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $140k; list at $299k implies a 114% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $281,060 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.50%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $468,630
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
709 Nettles Blvd	0.61mi	2/1.5	1,275 (+0%)	14mo	$525,000	$412	59
196 Nettles Blvd	0.73mi	2/2.0	1,195 (-6%)	15mo	$419,000	$351	42
350 Nettles Blvd	0.65mi	2/2.0	1,450 (+14%)	14mo	$535,000	$369	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-22,159
• Equity at exit: $44,582

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-4,623
• Equity at exit: $25,852

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34957

• Rents YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 536
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,836 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax from tax record: −$95 /mo · $1,138/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$650
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$806
• Net cashflow: $527

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,169

Max offer price $299,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9403 S Ocean Dr Unit 3D Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1328	$1,800	$1.36	23d	1	0.04mi
9425 S Ocean Dr #67 Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	1.5	1270	$2,400	$1.89	21d	1	0.07mi
9400 S Ocean Dr Unit 706B Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1053	$3,500	$3.32	23d	1	0.13mi
9400 S Ocean Dr Unit 608B Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1112	$6,500	$5.85	23d	1	0.13mi
9400 S Ocean Dr #307 Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1053	$2,500	$2.37	23d	1	0.13mi
9400 S Ocean Dr #707 Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1053	$3,000	$2.85	23d	1	0.13mi
9400 S Ocean Dr #202 Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1053	$5,600	$5.32	23d	1	0.13mi
9400 S Ocean Dr Unit 604B Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1053	$5,400	$5.13	23d	1	0.14mi
9400 S Ocean Dr Unit 504B Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1053	$2,400	$2.28	23d	1	0.14mi
9400 S Ocean Dr Unit 1003B Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1053	$2,700	$2.56	23d	1	0.14mi
9490 S Ocean Dr Unit 113 A Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1053	$4,200	$3.99	23d	1	0.16mi
9490 S Ocean Dr #611 Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1053	$2,750	$2.61	13d	1	0.18mi
9490 S Ocean Dr #213 Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1053	$2,600	$2.47	23d	1	0.18mi
9490 S Ocean Dr Unit 912-A Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1053	$3,200	$3.04	23d	1	0.18mi
9490 S Ocean Dr Unit 615A Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,900	$2.64	23d	1	0.18mi
9500 S Ocean Dr #9 Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1228	$4,950	$4.03	23d	1	0.22mi
9500 S Ocean Dr #201 Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1437	$5,400	$3.76	23d	1	0.22mi
9500 S Ocean Dr #1307 Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1228	$3,000	$2.44	13d	1	0.22mi
9500 S Ocean Dr #10 Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1437	$4,000	$2.78	23d	1	0.22mi
9500 S Ocean Dr #809 Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1228	$5,500	$4.48	23d	1	0.22mi
9500 S Ocean Dr #1310 Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1437	$6,000	$4.18	23d	1	0.22mi
9500 S Ocean Dr Unit 9500PH10 Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1437	$6,500	$4.52	23d	1	0.22mi
9500 S Ocean Dr #1308 Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1224	$3,100	$2.53	23d	1	0.22mi
9550 S Ocean Dr #4 Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1228	$6,500	$5.29	13d	1	0.29mi
9550 S Ocean Dr #705 Jensen Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1544	$7,000	$4.53	23d	1	0.29mi
9550 S Ocean Dr #4 Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1228	$6,500	$5.29	23d	1	0.29mi
9600 S Ocean Dr Jensen Beach, FL	2.0–4.0	2.0–3.5	2051	$2,500	$1.22	23d	3	0.38mi
8880 S Ocean Dr #1102 Jensen Beach, FL	1.0	2.0	1011	$5,200	$5.14	23d	1	0.45mi
8800 S Ocean Dr #102 Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1228	$3,200	$2.61	23d	1	0.56mi
8800 S Ocean Dr #1201 Jensen Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1587	$6,500	$4.10	23d	1	0.56mi
8800 S Ocean Dr #806 Jensen Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1485	$6,000	$4.04	23d	1	0.56mi
9900 S Ocean Dr Jensen Beach, FL	1.0–2.0	2.0	1009	$3,500	$3.47	23d	5	0.66mi
1333 Nettles Blvd Unit 1546511P Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1797	$3,122	$1.74	13d	1	0.68mi
8750 S Ocean Dr #1134 Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1377	$6,000	$4.36	21d	1	0.68mi
9940 S Ocean Dr Jensen Beach, FL	1.0–2.0	1.5–2.0	1009	$3,500	$3.47	13d	5	0.76mi
9950 S Ocean Dr #4 Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1411	$3,500	$2.48	23d	1	0.84mi
9960 S Ocean Dr #5 Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1703	$5,000	$2.94	23d	1	0.86mi
9960 S Ocean Dr #502 Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1434	$3,000	$2.09	23d	1	0.90mi
10000 S Ocean Dr #206 Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1264	$5,100	$4.03	23d	1	0.97mi
10044 S Ocean Dr Jensen Beach, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1305	$2,500	$1.91	23d	6	1.05mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $650 · $7,800/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,000 Active 88 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,000 Active 87 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,000 Active 86 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,000 Active 85 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $299,000 Active 83 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,000 Active 82 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $299,000 Active 80 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,000 Active 79 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,000 Active 78 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,000 Active 77 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $299,000 Active 74 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,000 Active 73 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,000 Active 72 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,000 Active 71 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,000 Active 70 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $299,000 Active 69 DOM
17. 2026-03-22
    listed $299,000 Active
18. 2007-08-08
    soldstatus $140,000 420-char remark

    Show marketing remark (420 chars)

    FABULOUS BEACH AREA COMPLEX! Beautifully Maintained Community across street from BEACH on Hutchinson Island, TENNIS & COMMUNITY POOL are JUST STEPS away. This 2BR/2BA TOWNHOUSE is FRESHLY PAINTED. LOW, LOW PRICE. . GREAT LOCATION!!! PRIVATE FENCED PATIO!GREAT LAYOUT! FULL SIZE WASHER/DRYER - and SHUTTERS TOO!!! THIS COULD BE YOUR LAST CHANCE TO LIVE NEAR THE BEACH AT SUCH A LOW, LOW PRICE!!!! CALL TODAY!!!

19. 2007-08-08
    price $159,000 420-char remark

    Show marketing remark (420 chars)

    FABULOUS BEACH AREA COMPLEX! Beautifully Maintained Community across street from BEACH on Hutchinson Island, TENNIS & COMMUNITY POOL are JUST STEPS away. This 2BR/2BA TOWNHOUSE is FRESHLY PAINTED. LOW, LOW PRICE. . GREAT LOCATION!!! PRIVATE FENCED PATIO!GREAT LAYOUT! FULL SIZE WASHER/DRYER - and SHUTTERS TOO!!! THIS COULD BE YOUR LAST CHANCE TO LIVE NEAR THE BEACH AT SUCH A LOW, LOW PRICE!!!! CALL TODAY!!!

20. 2006-04-28
    listed $140,000 420-char remark

    Show marketing remark (420 chars)

    FABULOUS BEACH AREA COMPLEX! Beautifully Maintained Community across street from BEACH on Hutchinson Island, TENNIS & COMMUNITY POOL are JUST STEPS away. This 2BR/2BA TOWNHOUSE is FRESHLY PAINTED. LOW, LOW PRICE. . GREAT LOCATION!!! PRIVATE FENCED PATIO!GREAT LAYOUT! FULL SIZE WASHER/DRYER - and SHUTTERS TOO!!! THIS COULD BE YOUR LAST CHANCE TO LIVE NEAR THE BEACH AT SUCH A LOW, LOW PRICE!!!! CALL TODAY!!!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,138 · $95/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,482 · $207/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,344/yr (+$112/mo · 118.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 96% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $46,030
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$1,138
• − Insurance: −$2,292
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,682
• − Management: −$3,682
• − HOA: −$7,800
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable income: $1,989
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$477
• After-tax cash flow: $5,841/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Lucie
• NCES district ID: 1201770
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,737
• Composite: 37.28/100
• National rank: #4449
• State rank: #51 of 73 in FL

Livability — Hutchinson Island South

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #783
• US rank: #17768

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment C Housing B Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hutchinson Island South, FL
• County: Martin County · 165,223 people
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• Population (ZIP): 23,462
• Household income: $70,403
• Rent vs Own: 23.8% rent · 76.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 946.0

Population outlook (St. Lucie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 338,016 people
• By 2030: 355,687 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 385,521 · +14.1%
• By 2050: 406,106 · +20.1%
• By 2075: 441,054 · +30.5%
• By 2100: 436,885 · +29.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Lucie

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.1) · D 45.1% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.1pp · 2024: -9.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.1 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+2.5 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+12.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -319.66%
• Current HPI: 340.0172
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.00%
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+113.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-22 Listed $299,000 Beaches MLS
• 2007-08-08 Price Changed $159,000 MCRTC
• 2007-08-08 Sold (MLS) $140,000 MCRTC
• 2006-04-28 Listed $140,000 MCRTC

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,138 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.