909 Ives Creek Rd · Bellville, TX 77418

$214,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,104 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 191 Days on market

Built 2021 2.00 ac lot $195/sqft · 36% below area Est $334k · 36% under ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Endless possibilities await at this 3 bed, 2 bath home on 2 acres in Austin County. With unlimited potential, this property is perfect for a new owner seeking country living. Situated between Brenham and Bellville, with easy access to Hempstead, Sealy, and Katy. Featuring a private well and septic, this unrestricted land is ideal for a second home or more. Don't miss out on this unique opportunity!

Key facts

• Easy access
• Private well
• Unrestricted land

Tags

• PRIVATE WELL
• UNRESTRICTED LAND
• EASY ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-231 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $174k (19.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $148k (31.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $148k (31.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 1.5% in Bellville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#676 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Bellville ISD (town): math 35% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #407 of 826 in TX (top 49%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 182 active listings in the ZIP; 410 units permitted in Austin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Austin County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 191 days — a 12% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $148,411 (31.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 191 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.61%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $333,696
• List price: $214,990
• Delta: -35.57%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-49,582
• Equity at exit: $32,056

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.03×
• Total profit: $-62,240
• Equity at exit: $18,588

Cash invested: $60,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77418

• Active inventory: 182
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,484 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$187 /mo · $2,238/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$312
• Net cashflow: $-231

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,777

Max offer price $174,172

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-109	-5% $-170	+0% $-231	+5% $-292	+10% $-353
Rent	-10% $-348	-5% $-290	+0% $-231	+5% $-172	+10% $-114
Rate	-1.0pp $-123	-0.5pp $-176	base $-231	+0.5pp $-287	+1.0pp $-343

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,748
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $214,990 Active 191 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $214,990 Active 190 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $214,990 Active 189 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $214,990 Active 188 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $214,990 Active 187 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $214,990 Active 185 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $214,990 Active 184 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $214,990 Active 181 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $214,990 Active 177 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $214,990 Active 176 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $214,990 Active 175 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $214,990 Active 174 DOM
13. 2026-05-30
    days on market $214,990 Active 173 DOM
14. 2025-12-08
    listed $214,990 Active 401-char remark

    Show marketing remark (401 chars)

    Endless possibilities await at this 3 bed, 2 bath home on 2 acres in Austin County. With unlimited potential, this property is perfect for a new owner seeking country living. Situated between Brenham and Bellville, with easy access to Hempstead, Sealy, and Katy. Featuring a private well and septic, this unrestricted land is ideal for a second home or more. Don't miss out on this unique opportunity!

15. 2025-08-31
    historical
16. 2025-07-01
    price $215,000
17. 2025-03-20
    price $225,000
18. 2025-01-23
    listed $230,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,238 · $187/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,934 · $328/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,696/yr (+$141/mo · 75.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,809
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$2,238
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,425
• − Management: −$1,425
• − Depreciation: −$6,254
• Taxable loss: −$6,650
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,596
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,177/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bellville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809810
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $53,064
• Composite: 34.34/100
• National rank: #5228
• State rank: #407 of 826 in TX

Livability — Bellville

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #676
• US rank: #12694

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,467

Population outlook (Austin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 32,206 people
• By 2030: 33,459 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 35,809 · +11.2%
• By 2050: 37,933 · +17.8%
• By 2075: 44,179 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 47,870 · +48.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 8% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Austin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+62.7) · D 18.3% · R 81.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.8pp toward R · 2008: -50.9pp · 2024: -62.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+62.7 2020: R+58.4 2016: R+59.7 2012: R+60.3 2008: R+50.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -153.20%
• Current HPI: 196.2441
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-08 Listed $214,990 HARMLS
• 2025-08-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-07-01 Price Changed $215,000 HARMLS
• 2025-03-20 Price Changed $225,000 HARMLS
• 2025-01-23 Listed $230,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+25.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,238 · +10.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.