1029 County Road 274 Dr · Bertram, TX 78605

$265,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 109 Days on market

Built 2017 1.17 ac lot $173/sqft · 48% below area Est $510k · 48% under ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great starter home out in the country! 30 minutes from Austin area. Up and coming area, don't miss you tour to view today. This is getting a brand new aerobic septic system installed.

Key facts

• 1.17 acre lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 2017

Tags

• AEROBIC SEPTIC SYSTEM
• 30 MINUTES FROM AUSTIN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-12 ($-146/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $263k (0.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (13.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $230k (13.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 2.5% in Bertram — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#170 in TX, #4,466 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Burnet CISD (rural): math 36% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #465 of 826 in TX (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 358 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 891 units permitted in Burnet County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Burnet County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 109 days — a 9% lower offer ($241k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 74% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $229,900 (13.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 109 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.20%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $510,070
• List price: $265,000
• Delta: -48.05%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-43,685
• Equity at exit: $39,512

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-38,907
• Equity at exit: $22,912

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78605

• Home prices YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 358
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,299 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax from tax record: −$328 /mo · $3,940/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$483
• Net cashflow: $-12

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,314

Max offer price $262,846

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $138	-5% $63	+0% $-12	+5% $-87	+10% $-162
Rent	-10% $-194	-5% $-103	+0% $-12	+5% $79	+10% $169
Rate	-1.0pp $121	-0.5pp $55	base $-12	+0.5pp $-81	+1.0pp $-151

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
136 Caliza Dr Bertram, TX	4.0	2.0	1458	$2,299	$1.58	2d	1	0.34mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $265,000 Active 109 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $265,000 Active 106 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $265,000 Active 105 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $265,000 Active 104 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $265,000 Active 103 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $265,000 Active 101 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $265,000 Active 97 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $265,000 Active 96 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $265,000 Active 95 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $265,000 Active 92 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $265,000 Active 91 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $265,000 Active 90 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $265,000 Active 89 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $265,000 Active 88 DOM
15. 2026-05-18
    price $268,000 184-char remark

    Show marketing remark (184 chars)

    Great starter home out in the country! 30 minutes from Austin area. Up and coming area, don't miss you tour to view today. This is getting a brand new aerobic septic system installed.

16. 2026-04-27
    price $277,000 184-char remark

    Show marketing remark (184 chars)

    Great starter home out in the country! 30 minutes from Austin area. Up and coming area, don't miss you tour to view today. This is getting a brand new aerobic septic system installed.

17. 2026-03-30
    price $284,995 184-char remark

    Show marketing remark (184 chars)

    Great starter home out in the country! 30 minutes from Austin area. Up and coming area, don't miss you tour to view today. This is getting a brand new aerobic septic system installed.

18. 2026-03-04
    listed $289,995 Active 184-char remark

    Show marketing remark (184 chars)

    Great starter home out in the country! 30 minutes from Austin area. Up and coming area, don't miss you tour to view today. This is getting a brand new aerobic septic system installed.

19. 2020-06-15
    soldstatus
20. 2019-06-13
    soldstatus
21. 2007-09-13
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,940 · $328/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,850 · $404/mo
• Expected delta: +$910/yr (+$76/mo · 23.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 74% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,588
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$3,940
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,207
• − Management: −$2,207
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$4,644
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,115
• After-tax cash flow: $968/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Burnet CISD
• NCES district ID: 4812220
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $50,890
• Composite: 32.09/100
• National rank: #5811
• State rank: #465 of 826 in TX

Livability — Bertram

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #170
• US rank: #4466

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,632

Population outlook (Burnet County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,492 people
• By 2030: 52,995 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 57,528 · +13.9%
• By 2050: 61,444 · +21.7%
• By 2075: 71,098 · +40.8%
• By 2100: 74,634 · +47.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 19% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Romanian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 20%

Political lean MEDSL · Burnet

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.7) · D 21.7% · R 77.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: -44.1pp · 2024: -55.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.7 2020: R+53.1 2016: R+56.8 2012: R+54.6 2008: R+44.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -6.46%
• Current HPI: 296.8166
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $268,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $277,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $284,995 Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-04 Listed $289,995 Unlock MLS
• 2020-06-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-06-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-09-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+17.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,940 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.