820 Las Palmas Ave · Novato, CA 94949

$130,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured · 30 Days on market

Built 1970 Fair condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great Opportunity with upside potential. Renovations were started with a nice new kitchen, flooring and guest bathroom. Back bedroom and bathroom are original and in poor condition so this is a great opportunity and it is priced accordingly. Gorgeous Parklike setting in a private quiet part of Los Robles Park. Lots of ammenities like pool, hot tub and sauna. Must see to appreciate the possibilities.

Key facts

• New kitchen
• Hot tub
• Parklike setting

Tags

• NEW KITCHEN
• GUEST BATHROOM
• PARKLIKE SETTING
• POOL
• HOT TUB
• SAUNA

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Monthly land lease: $1,000
• HOA & community: No association; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Covered off-street parking for 2 vehicles
• Utilities: Cable available; Internet available; Individual electric meter; Individual gas meter; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured in-park double wide; Fixer condition
• Construction: Aluminum skirting; Holiday HM (manufacturer: Holiday House)
• Exterior features: Located in a mobile home park; Land lease

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Low-flow showers
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Ceiling fans; Evaporative cooler
• Interior features: Carbon monoxide detector; Fire alarm
• Laundry & utility: Washer included; Dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $128k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.5% vs local median 2.4% in Novato — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#211 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities D, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Novato Unified (suburban): math 38% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #160 of 517 in CA (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 75 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 149 units permitted in Marin County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($121k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marin County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.1% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $128,050 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 50.68%
• DSCR: 3.25
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $346,752
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
504 Vera Cruz Ave	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,120 (-3%)	8mo	$355,000	$317	81
110 Ensenada Dr	0.24mi	2/2.0	1,100 (-4%)	10mo	$265,000	$241	72
805 Las Palmas	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,296 (+12%)	6mo	$420,000	$324	72
910 San Pablo Way	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,080 (-6%)	22mo	$325,000	$301	66
111 Ensenada Dr	0.26mi	2/2.0	1,120 (-3%)	20mo	$265,000	$237	66
223 Barcelona Dr	0.26mi	2/2.0	1,080 (-6%)	20mo	$202,000	$187	61
604 El Arroyo Pl	0.11mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,264 (+10%)	23mo	$399,000	$316	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.06% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 46.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.95×
• Total profit: $70,981
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: 51.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.53×
• Total profit: $164,763
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94949

• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 75
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,083 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$162 /mo · $1,950/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$647
• Net cashflow: $1,537

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,137

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 45%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,627	-5% $1,582	+0% $1,537	+5% $1,492	+10% $1,447
Rent	-10% $1,294	-5% $1,415	+0% $1,537	+5% $1,659	+10% $1,781
Rate	-1.0pp $1,603	-0.5pp $1,570	base $1,537	+0.5pp $1,503	+1.0pp $1,469

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
200 Posada del Sol Novato, CA	2.0	1.0–1.5	1125	$2,738	$2.43	0d	1	0.32mi
235 Posada del Sol Novato, CA	2.0	2.0	1200	$3,225	$2.69	0d	1	0.42mi
450 Entrada Dr Novato, CA	2.0	2.0	1025	$2,900	$2.83	11d	1	0.68mi
98 Gann Way Novato, CA	2.0	2.5	1428	$3,950	$2.77	45d	1	0.87mi
1009 Green Oak Dr Novato, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	750	$2,500	$3.33	0d	1	1.14mi
217 Deborah Ct Unit 1 Novato, CA	1.0	1.5	750	$2,250	$3.00	45d	1	1.33mi
301 Capetown Ct Novato, CA	3.0	1.5	1323	$3,400	$2.57	45d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   statusdays on market $130,000 Contingent (Show) 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $130,000 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $130,000 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $130,000 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $130,000 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $130,000 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $130,000 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $130,000 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $130,000 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $130,000 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $160,000 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $160,000 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $160,000 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $160,000 Active 10 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $160,000 Active 9 DOM
16. 2026-05-22
    listed $160,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,996
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$1,950
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,960
• − Management: −$2,960
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable income: $17,413
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,179
• After-tax cash flow: $14,267/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 30 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This manufactured home presents an opportunity for moderate renovations, with a focus on exterior siding and interior updates, to significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Exterior siding — Weathered and in need of repainting or replacement.
• Major Back bedroom and bathroom — Original and in poor condition, requiring significant renovation or replacement.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls and trim — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Replace exterior siding — Improves curb appeal and home value.
• Both Service HVAC system — Ensures comfort and energy efficiency, attracting buyers/tenants.
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Enhances curb appeal and attracts buyers/tenants.
• Both Update kitchen and bathroom — Modernizes the home and attracts buyers/tenants.
• Both Replace flooring — Enhances interior aesthetics and attracts buyers/tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Exterior siding · Weathered and in need of repainting or replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Back bedroom and bathroom · Original and in poor condition, requiring significant renovation or replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$30,000–100,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls and trim — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Replace exterior siding — Improves curb appeal and home value. ↑
• Both Service HVAC system — Ensures comfort and energy efficiency, attracting buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Enhances curb appeal and attracts buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Update kitchen and bathroom — Modernizes the home and attracts buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Replace flooring — Enhances interior aesthetics and attracts buyers/tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Novato Unified
• NCES district ID: 0627720
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $84,396
• Composite: 41.06/100
• National rank: #3576
• State rank: #160 of 517 in CA

Livability — Novato

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #211
• US rank: #6675

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Novato, CA
• County: Marin County · 243,328 people
• City population: 59,522
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 17,787
• Household income: $120,758
• Rent vs Own: 36.9% rent · 63.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 776.0

Population outlook (Marin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 276,379 people
• By 2030: 282,942 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 292,937 · +6.0%
• By 2050: 300,449 · +8.7%
• By 2075: 316,946 · +14.7%
• By 2100: 303,948 · +10.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 16% Asian 7% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 5% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Marin

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+63.9) · D 80.6% · R 16.7% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.2pp toward D · 2008: 57.7pp · 2024: 63.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+63.9 2020: D+66.5 2016: D+62.9 2012: D+50.5 2008: D+57.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -670.06%
• Current HPI: 299.6555
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $160,000 BAREIS