1504 Kenwood Dr · Aransas Pass, TX 78336

$129,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,982 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 41 Days on market

Built 1968 10,800 sqft lot $66/sqft · 48% below area Est $248k · 48% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor special with endless potential in Aransas Pass! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath brick home offers over 1,900 square feet of space and is ready for your vision. Featuring an in-ground pool, spacious layout, and solid brick construction, this property is the perfect opportunity for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to create their dream home. With the right updates and remodeling, this home can truly shine again. Bring your ideas and unlock the potential this property has to offer. Opportunities like this don’t last long—schedule your showing and come view today!

Key facts

• In-ground pool
• Endless potential
• Spacious layout

Tags

• IN-GROUND POOL
• SPACIOUS LAYOUT
• SOLID BRICK CONSTRUCTION
• ENDLESS POTENTIAL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $126k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.0% vs local median 4.6% in Aransas Pass — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#253 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Aransas Pass ISD (town): math 28% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #597 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 275 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 344 units permitted in San Patricio County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Patricio County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 27y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $56k; list at $130k implies a 134% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.5% of price; flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $126,003 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.53% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 48.88%
• DSCR: 3.17
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $247,578
• List price: $129,900
• Delta: -47.53%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
727 W Johnson Ave	0.44mi	3/2.0	2,031 (+2%)	3mo	$414,000	$204	73
1305 S Whitney St	0.31mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,720 (-13%)	11mo	$243,000	$141	45
1164 S Rife St	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,712 (-14%)	16mo	$259,900	$152	45
1815 S Saunders St	0.52mi	3/2.0	2,252 (+14%)	22mo	$434,999	$193	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.28×
• Total profit: $46,592
• Equity at exit: $19,369

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.54×
• Total profit: $128,898
• Equity at exit: $11,231

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78336

• Home prices YoY: -29.5%
• Active inventory: 275
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,281 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$375 /mo · $4,503/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$689
• Net cashflow: $1,055

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,946

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,129	-5% $1,092	+0% $1,055	+5% $1,018	+10% $982
Rent	-10% $796	-5% $925	+0% $1,055	+5% $1,185	+10% $1,314
Rate	-1.0pp $1,120	-0.5pp $1,088	base $1,055	+0.5pp $1,021	+1.0pp $987

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1131 S 8th St Unit 1268400P Aransas Pass, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$4,105	$3.21	44d	1	0.69mi
1109 W Nelson Ave Aransas Pass, TX	2.0	2.0	1304	$1,800	$1.38	44d	1	1.26mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-03
   status $129,900 Pending 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $129,900 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $129,900 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $129,900 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $129,900 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-04-22
   listed $149,900 Active 584-char remark

   Show marketing remark (584 chars)

   Investor special with endless potential in Aransas Pass! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath brick home offers over 1,900 square feet of space and is ready for your vision. Featuring an in-ground pool, spacious layout, and solid brick construction, this property is the perfect opportunity for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to create their dream home. With the right updates and remodeling, this home can truly shine again. Bring your ideas and unlock the potential this property has to offer. Opportunities like this don’t last long—schedule your showing and come view today!

7. 2004-01-15
   listed $126,000
8. 2003-07-27
   listed $126,000
9. 1999-08-19
   listed $110,000
10. 1991-08-30
    soldstatus $55,553

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,503 · $375/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,503 · $375/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,375
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$4,503
• − Insurance: −$5,768
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,150
• − Management: −$3,150
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable income: $11,749
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,820
• After-tax cash flow: $9,841/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aransas Pass ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808580
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,869
• Composite: 26.55/100
• National rank: #7191
• State rank: #597 of 826 in TX

Livability — Aransas Pass

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #253
• US rank: #5980

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Aransas Pass, TX
• Population (ZIP): 12,146

Population outlook (San Patricio County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 75,538 people
• By 2030: 79,575 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 87,670 · +16.1%
• By 2050: 96,107 · +27.2%
• By 2075: 117,984 · +56.2%
• By 2100: 130,010 · +72.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 43% Two or more races 21% Asian 2% Native American 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 21% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Patricio

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.4) · D 31.4% · R 67.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.6pp · 2024: -36.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.4 2020: R+29.1 2016: R+24.1 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+16.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.56%
• Current HPI: 187.8443
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+169.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Listed $149,900 CBMLS
• 2004-01-15 Listed $126,000 CBMLS
• 2003-07-27 Listed $126,000 CBMLS
• 1999-08-19 Listed $110,000 CBMLS
• 1991-08-30 Sold (Public Records) $55,553 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,503 · +10.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.