311 S Chestnut St · Forney, TX 75126

$254,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,392 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 46 Days on market

Built 2002 7,275 sqft lot $183/sqft · 11% below area Est $286k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.4/15.0
• Cash flow +8.3/30.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

NO HOA! Nice neighborhood nestled in a residential area that backs up to Forney's newest community park! This delightful home comes with a spacious kitchen and includes refrigerator, stove, dishwasher, plentiful countertop space and bay windows.

Key facts

• 7,275 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2002

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing possession at closing/funding; Standard listing conditions; Photos available (24)
• Financial info: Acceptable financing: Cash, Conventional, FHA, VA; Second mortgage: No; Loan type treated as clear
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage; 2 covered parking spaces; Garage approximately 19' wide x 19' long
• Security: Audio and video consent for visitors to record noted
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Electricity connected; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; One story; Year built 2002; Property not attached
• Construction: Brick and siding exterior; Shingle roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Lot less than 0.5 acre; Subdivision: Mc Keller Home Place 5; Directions: W Broad St to S Chestnut, right onto S Chestnut

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric range; Eat-in kitchen with breakfast bar and built-in cabinets; Granite countertops
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main level with ensuite bath and separate shower; Two additional bedrooms on main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Primary bath with garden tub and separate shower
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Electric cooling; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Granite counters; High speed internet available; Window coverings; Breakfast bar; Built-in cabinets; Fireplace in living room; One living area; Two dining areas; 9 total rooms; Levels: One
• Laundry & utility: Utility room; Full-size washer/dryer area; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $255k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-233 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $214k (16.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $209k (17.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $209k (17.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 4.1% in Forney — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#98 in TX, #3,339 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Forney ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #234 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Claybon El (math 55% / reading 58%, grade C+, #559 of 4,322 statewide, top 13%, 575 students, 35% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 56% at this address vs 42% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Forney ISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 2200 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 9d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($247k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $209,389 (17.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.92%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $286,297
• List price: $254,900
• Delta: -10.97%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
207 Cornell Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,356 (-3%)	1mo	$264,900	$195	84
102 Marquette St	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,388 (-0%)	8mo	$274,999	$198	81
500 Bryn Mawr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,285 (-8%)	8mo	$249,900	$194	77
401 E Church St	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,530 (+10%)	2mo	$315,000	$206	74
124 Stanford	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,488 (+7%)	4mo	$235,000	$158	71
210 S Chestnut St	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,241 (-11%)	9mo	$249,900	$201	69
1438 Merlin Buff St	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,302 (-6%)	3mo	$234,999	$180	62
105 Windsor Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,214 (-13%)	10mo	$274,900	$226	60
101 Vassar St	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,555 (+12%)	9mo	$265,000	$170	60
1432 Merlin Buff St	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,302 (-6%)	6mo	$243,699	$187	59
106 W Shands St	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,494 (+7%)	8mo	$205,000	$137	53
620 Park Creek Ave	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-13%)	1mo	$120,000	$99	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-59,308
• Equity at exit: $38,006

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.17×
• Total profit: $-83,331
• Equity at exit: $22,039

Cash invested: $71,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75126

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 2200
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,094 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax from tax record: −$444 /mo · $5,330/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$440
• Net cashflow: $-233

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,389

Max offer price $213,755

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-89	-5% $-161	+0% $-233	+5% $-305	+10% $-377
Rent	-10% $-398	-5% $-316	+0% $-233	+5% $-150	+10% $-67
Rate	-1.0pp $-105	-0.5pp $-168	base $-233	+0.5pp $-299	+1.0pp $-366

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,725
• Closing costs: $7,647
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
321 S Chestnut St Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1831	$2,150	$1.17	25d	1	0.08mi
121 Princeton Cir Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1604	$2,095	$1.31	12d	1	0.15mi
300 Stanford Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1714	$1,999	$1.17	4d	1	0.28mi
124 Stanford Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1488	$1,800	$1.21	8d	1	0.28mi
105 Fieldwood Ct Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1820	$2,400	$1.32	22d	1	0.40mi
407 S Bois D Arc St Forney, TX	3.0	1.5	1008	$1,500	$1.49	45d	1	0.50mi
308 Chinaberry Trl Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1772	$1,950	$1.10	45d	1	0.56mi
413 Driftwood Ct Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1733	$1,999	$1.15	11d	1	0.57mi
413 Driftwood Ct Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1733	$2,000	$1.15	16d	1	0.57mi
404 Oak St Unit 1 Forney, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,349	$1.35	3d	1	0.61mi
304 Burgett St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1417	$1,595	$1.13	45d	1	0.76mi
517 Burgett St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,695	$1.32	4d	1	0.93mi
731 Lauren Grove Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1832	$2,500	$1.36	0d	1	1.05mi
201 Wildwood Blvd Forney, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	964	$1,955	$2.03	0d	33	1.27mi
300 Trailhouse Ln Forney, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1041	$2,115	$2.03	0d	37	1.34mi
102 Galloping Trl Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1663	$1,999	$1.20	8d	1	1.41mi
905 Royal St Forney, TX	3.0	1.5	1250	$1,750	$1.40	45d	1	1.41mi
113 Galloping Trl Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1482	$1,769	$1.19	18d	1	1.46mi
920 Royal St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,870	$1.44	5d	1	1.46mi
308 Southlake Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1491	$1,965	$1.32	4d	1	1.48mi
511 Brazos St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1570	$1,945	$1.24	8d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $254,900 Active 46 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $254,900 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $254,900 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $254,900 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $254,900 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $254,900 Active 38 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $254,900 Active 37 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $254,900 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   pricedays on market $254,900 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $259,900 Active 32 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $259,900 Active 29 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $259,900 Active 28 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $259,900 Active 27 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $259,900 Active 26 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $259,900 Active 25 DOM
16. 2026-05-06
    listed $264,900 Active 1326-char remark
17. 2012-12-20
    soldstatus
18. 2012-12-17
    soldstatus Closed 245-char remark

    Show marketing remark (245 chars)

    NO HOA! Nice neighborhood nestled in a residential area that backs up to Forney's newest community park! This delightful home comes with a spacious kitchen and includes refrigerator, stove, dishwasher, plentiful countertop space and bay windows.

19. 2012-12-12
    status Pending 245-char remark

    Show marketing remark (245 chars)

    NO HOA! Nice neighborhood nestled in a residential area that backs up to Forney's newest community park! This delightful home comes with a spacious kitchen and includes refrigerator, stove, dishwasher, plentiful countertop space and bay windows.

20. 2012-12-06
    historical Active Option Contract 245-char remark

    Show marketing remark (245 chars)

    NO HOA! Nice neighborhood nestled in a residential area that backs up to Forney's newest community park! This delightful home comes with a spacious kitchen and includes refrigerator, stove, dishwasher, plentiful countertop space and bay windows.

21. 2012-03-13
    listed $112,500 Active 245-char remark

    Show marketing remark (245 chars)

    NO HOA! Nice neighborhood nestled in a residential area that backs up to Forney's newest community park! This delightful home comes with a spacious kitchen and includes refrigerator, stove, dishwasher, plentiful countertop space and bay windows.

22. 2003-09-03
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,330 · $444/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,330 · $444/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,127
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,278
• − Property taxes: −$5,330
• − Insurance: −$1,274
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,010
• − Management: −$2,010
• − Depreciation: −$7,415
• Taxable loss: −$7,192
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,726
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,069/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819560
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $86,679
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3812
• State rank: #234 of 826 in TX

Livability — Forney

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #98
• US rank: #3339

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Forney, TX
• County: Kaufman County · 122,338 people
• City population: 84,799
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,799
• Household income: $103,673
• Rent vs Own: 19.5% rent · 80.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1306.0

Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 25% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 14% Arabic 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.93%
• Current HPI: 148.5749
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.42%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+126.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Price Changed $254,900 NTREIS
• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $259,900 NTREIS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $264,900 NTREIS
• 2012-12-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-12-17 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2012-12-12 Pending — NTREIS
• 2012-12-06 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2012-03-13 Listed $112,500 NTREIS
• 2003-09-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,330 · -2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.