59 W Potomac Dr · Colonial Beach, VA 22443

$319,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 2019 0.27 ac lot Est $305k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.7/30.0
• ARV discount +5.3/15.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover your dream retreat in the serene Berkley Beach community! This stunning 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom Craftsman-style home, built in 2019, boasts an inviting open layout. The heart of the home features a spacious kitchen with upgraded countertops, a pantry, and an eat-in area, seamlessly flowing into the family room-perfect for entertaining. Optional community membership to private beach with beautiful sandy beaches and party pavilion along the picturesque Mattox Creek, where fishing and relaxation await. The expansive 0.27-acre lot offers a tranquil rear yard, providing a peaceful escape. Enjoy the convenience of a main floor laundry and ample parking with a gravel driveway. With energy-e

Key facts

• Party pavilion
• Upgraded countertops
• Spacious kitchen

Tags

• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• UPGRADED COUNTERTOPS
• PRIVATE BEACH
• PARTY PAVILION
• TRANQUIL REAR YARD
• MAIN FLOOR LAUNDRY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Fee simple ownership; Property listed in good condition

Exterior

• Parking: Four driveway/off-street parking spaces; Gravel driveway; Four total garage and parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service (120/240V, transformer); Photovoltaic system (third-party owned, leased); Electric hot water; Cable TV available; Internet options: broadband, cable, satellite, DSL
• Home design: Detached single-family home; Entry level main living and bedrooms; Estimated year built
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Architectural shingle roof; Crawl space foundation; Above-grade finished and unfinished areas noted
• Exterior features: Private beach; Open lot with rear yard; Road frontage; Water access to Mattox Creek (river); Fishing allowed with private access; Navigable water

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Icemaker; Electric range/oven; Refrigerator; Upgraded countertops; Pantry; Eat-in kitchen / breakfast area
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level (entry level bedroom present)
• Flooring: Luxury vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump system with electric backup; Heat pumps; Programmable thermostat; Ceiling fans; Central air conditioning; Dehumidifier; Solar on-grid integration
• Interior features: Walk-in shower in bathroom; Tub with shower; Breakfast area; Ceiling fans; Combination kitchen and dining area; Crown molding; Dining area; Family room open to kitchen; Eat-in kitchen; Pantry; Master bathroom; Recessed lighting; Upgraded countertops; Walk-in closets; Drywall walls; Cathedral ceilings
• Laundry & utility: Main-floor laundry; Front-loading washer; Front-loading dryer (electric); Washer and dryer stacked option

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $320k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $21 ($255/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $247k (22.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $247k (22.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.4% in Colonial Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#460 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: schools B, crime B, cost of living B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Westmoreland County Public School District (rural): math 34% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #105 of 131 in VA (top 80%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 197 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 220 units permitted in Westmoreland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,467/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($65k/yr) (locally 126% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Westmoreland County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $246,746 (22.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.28%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $305,088
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
100 Latane Dr	0.19mi	3/1.5	1,300 (-3%)	2mo	$305,000	$235	82
88 Brooks Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,408 (+5%)	4mo	$315,000	$224	78
96 Columbia Rd	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,408 (+5%)	9mo	$305,000	$217	74
65 Columbia Rd	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,304 (-3%)	12mo	$305,000	$234	73
94 Oak Ln	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,340 (-0%)	10mo	$279,250	$208	72
106 Heritage Ln	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,232 (-8%)	10mo	$280,000	$227	70
106 Heritage Ln	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,232 (-8%)	10mo	$280,000	$227	70
100 Park Ave	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,230 (-8%)	8mo	$279,500	$227	67
57 Oak Ln	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,232 (-8%)	1mo	$300,000	$244	65
237 Nicholson Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,488 (+11%)	9mo	$320,000	$215	60
484 Latane Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,458 (+8%)	6mo	$325,000	$223	58
68 Oak Ln	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,232 (-8%)	11mo	$300,000	$244	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-50,622
• Equity at exit: $47,698

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-42,894
• Equity at exit: $27,659

Cash invested: $89,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22443

• Active inventory: 197
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,467 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax from tax record: −$117 /mo · $1,406/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$518
• Net cashflow: $21

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,441

Max offer price $319,900

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $202	-5% $112	+0% $21	+5% $-69	+10% $-160
Rent	-10% $-174	-5% $-76	+0% $21	+5% $119	+10% $216
Rate	-1.0pp $182	-0.5pp $103	base $21	+0.5pp $-62	+1.0pp $-146

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,975
• Closing costs: $9,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
990 Ebb Tide Dr Colonial Beach, VA	3.0	2.5	1632	$2,445	$1.50	44d	1	0.18mi
175 Blackwell Rd Colonial Beach, VA	3.0	2.0	1488	$2,800	$1.88	3d	1	0.64mi
14 Azalea Way Colonial Beach, VA	3.0	2.0	1311	$2,250	$1.72	44d	1	0.73mi
47 Birch Ln Colonial Beach, VA	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,545	$1.96	14d	1	1.22mi
236 Meadow View Ln Colonial Beach, VA	3.0	2.5	1600	$2,100	$1.31	14d	1	1.31mi
314 Lake Dr Colonial Beach, VA	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,350	$1.27	14d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $319,900 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $319,900 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   remarks 699-char remark
4. 2026-06-15
   listed $319,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,406 · $117/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,623 · $219/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,217/yr (+$101/mo · 86.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,610
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,919
• − Property taxes: −$1,406
• − Insurance: −$1,600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,369
• − Management: −$2,369
• − Depreciation: −$9,306
• Taxable loss: −$5,359
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,286
• After-tax cash flow: $1,541/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Westmoreland County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103980
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -47.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $51,665
• Composite: 39.94/100
• National rank: #3845
• State rank: #105 of 131 in VA

Livability — Colonial Beach

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #460
• US rank: #19615

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B Employment C Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Westmoreland County · 10,011 people
• City population: 10,011
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 10,011
• Household income: $64,810
• Rent vs Own: 20.9% rent · 79.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 126.0

Population outlook (Westmoreland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,643 people
• By 2030: 17,520 · -0.7%
• By 2040: 17,041 · -3.4%
• By 2050: 16,397 · -7.1%
• By 2075: 15,012 · -14.9%
• By 2100: 12,917 · -26.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 15% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Westmoreland

• 2024 margin: R (+14.3) · D 42.4% · R 56.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.5pp toward R · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: -14.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.3 2020: R+8.2 2016: R+7.3 2012: D+0.5 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -127.23%
• Current HPI: 152.1518
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $319,900 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+50.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,406 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.