Deshka Stone Creek Plan · North Lakes, AK 99654

$345,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,444 sqft · SingleFamily · 194 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +4.9/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Zillow Users please note: Prices do not include lot allowance. Visit the builder site for more details including how to build on your lot or ours! Several Floorplan Options Available! This delightful ranch offers 1400+ square feet of living space. It has 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, laundry room, ample closet space, and open concept kitchen, dining, and living rooms. The Deshka boasts a covered back porch option, den option, and vaulted ceilings in the master bedroom, dining and living room areas. Included Features Subject to change. Prices do not include lot allowance.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Listed 193 days

🏗️ New construction. The $345,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $464,159.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $345k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $302k (12.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $264k (23.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $264k (23.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District (town): math 42% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #5 of 21 in AK (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Finger Lake Elementary (math 57% / reading 52%, grade C, #31 of 156 statewide, top 26%, 425 students, 43% FRL); Colony Middle School (math 39% / reading 54%, grade D+, #9 of 36 statewide, top 23%, 735 students, 31% FRL); Colony High School (math 29% / reading 38%, grade F, #32 of 61 statewide, top 52%, 1,117 students, 29% FRL) — zoned schools at 34% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 514 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 91 units permitted in Matanuska-Susitna Borough in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($98k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Matanuska-Susitna County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 194 days — a 12% lower offer ($304k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $264,046 (23.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 194 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.57% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.39%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.36%
• DSCR: 0.54
• GRM: 14.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $464,159
• List price: $345,000
• Delta: -25.67%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7545 E Obsidian Loop	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,416 (-2%)	1mo	$459,000	$324	88
7425 E Sandstone Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,560 (+8%)	2mo	$479,000	$307	78
7423 E Obsidian Loop	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,516 (+5%)	10mo	$425,000	$280	76
7676 E Breckenridge Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,504 (+4%)	5mo	$389,000	$259	66
7875 E Obsidian Loop	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,572 (+9%)	5mo	$445,985	$284	62
7160 E Beechcraft Rd	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,252 (-13%)	9mo	$354,900	$283	60
7758 E Aspen Ridge Rd	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-0%)	13mo	$395,000	$274	58
7595 E Breckenridge Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,359 (-6%)	10mo	$389,000	$286	58
4751 N Baron St	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,659 (+15%)	1mo	$425,000	$256	57
5310 N Jellystone Cir	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,416 (-2%)	11mo	$450,000	$318	53
8137 E Sandstone Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,331 (-8%)	11mo	$419,000	$315	48
5661 N Tahoe Dr	0.59mi	3/2.5	1,606 (+11%)	11mo	$465,000	$290	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -38.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.19×
• Total profit: $-154,256
• Equity at exit: $69,208

10-year hold

• IRR: -79.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.97×
• Total profit: $-255,698
• Equity at exit: $40,132

Cash invested: $129,964 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99654

• Home prices YoY: -9.9%
• Rents YoY: 0.0%
• Active inventory: 514
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,640 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,434
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$580 /mo · $6,962/yr
• Insurance: −$193
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$554
• Net cashflow: $-1,122

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,060

Max offer price $301,842

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-801	-5% $-961	+0% $-1,122	+5% $-1,282	+10% $-1,443
Rent	-10% $-1,330	-5% $-1,226	+0% $-1,122	+5% $-1,017	+10% $-913
Rate	-1.0pp $-888	-0.5pp $-1,004	base $-1,122	+0.5pp $-1,242	+1.0pp $-1,364

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $116,040
• Closing costs: $13,925
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7311 E Obsidian Loop Wasilla, AK	3.0	2.0	1341	$2,700	$2.01	25d	1	0.20mi
6601 Skyhawk Ln Wasilla, AK	2.0	2.0	1250	$4,200	$3.36	25d	1	0.42mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $345,000 Active 194 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $345,000 Active 191 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $345,000 Active 190 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $345,000 Active 189 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $345,000 Active 188 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $345,000 Active 186 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $345,000 Active 185 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $345,000 Active 183 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $345,000 Active 182 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $345,000 Active 181 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $345,000 Active 180 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $345,000 Active 176 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $345,000 Active 175 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $345,000 Active 174 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $345,000 Active 173 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $345,000 Active 172 DOM
17. 2026-03-15
    price $339,000 576-char remark

    Show marketing remark (576 chars)

    Zillow Users please note: Prices do not include lot allowance. Visit the builder site for more details including how to build on your lot or ours! Several Floorplan Options Available! This delightful ranch offers 1400+ square feet of living space. It has 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, laundry room, ample closet space, and open concept kitchen, dining, and living rooms. The Deshka boasts a covered back porch option, den option, and vaulted ceilings in the master bedroom, dining and living room areas. Included Features Subject to change. Prices do not include lot allowance.

18. 2026-01-08
    price $329,000 576-char remark

    Show marketing remark (576 chars)

    Zillow Users please note: Prices do not include lot allowance. Visit the builder site for more details including how to build on your lot or ours! Several Floorplan Options Available! This delightful ranch offers 1400+ square feet of living space. It has 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, laundry room, ample closet space, and open concept kitchen, dining, and living rooms. The Deshka boasts a covered back porch option, den option, and vaulted ceilings in the master bedroom, dining and living room areas. Included Features Subject to change. Prices do not include lot allowance.

19. 2025-12-10
    listed $317,000 Active 576-char remark

    Show marketing remark (576 chars)

    Zillow Users please note: Prices do not include lot allowance. Visit the builder site for more details including how to build on your lot or ours! Several Floorplan Options Available! This delightful ranch offers 1400+ square feet of living space. It has 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, laundry room, ample closet space, and open concept kitchen, dining, and living rooms. The Deshka boasts a covered back porch option, den option, and vaulted ceilings in the master bedroom, dining and living room areas. Included Features Subject to change. Prices do not include lot allowance.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,686
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,000
• − Property taxes: −$6,962
• − Insurance: −$2,321
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,535
• − Management: −$2,535
• − Depreciation: −$13,503
• Taxable loss: −$22,170
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,321
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,140/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200510
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,325
• Composite: 41.38/100
• National rank: #3484
• State rank: #5 of 21 in AK

Livability — North Lakes

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Lakes, AK
• County: Matanuska Susitna Borough · 100,174 people
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• Population (ZIP): 44,647
• Household income: $97,544
• Rent vs Own: 28.9% rent · 71.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 872.0

Population outlook (Matanuska-Susitna County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 126,730 people
• By 2030: 139,641 · +10.2%
• By 2040: 165,122 · +30.3%
• By 2050: 189,697 · +49.7%
• By 2075: 249,959 · +97.2%
• By 2100: 288,077 · +127.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Two or more races 12% Native American 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Spanish 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Matanuska-Susitna

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -21.68%
• Current HPI: 196.8728
• Rent YoY: ▬ 0.04%
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+6.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-15 Price Changed $339,000 Zillow
• 2026-01-08 Price Changed $329,000 Zillow
• 2025-12-10 Listed $317,000 Zillow