9339 Lavender St · Houston, TX 77016

$265,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,726 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 2024 Excellent condition 2,590 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks

TENANT OCCUPIED!! INVESTORS ONLY! Discover your ideal home with our brand-new property, attractively priced to offer an exceptional blend of comfort and luxury. This residence features three bedrooms and two and a half bathrooms, along with a first-floor family, kitchen space and small backyard. Upon entering, you will be welcomed by an abundance of natural light. These homes showcase premium finishes throughout, including a stunning quartz island, stainless steel appliances, elegant shaker cabinets, and contemporary stainless fixtures in the kitchen. With spacious living areas and a luxurious upstairs en-suite primary suite with balcony, every detail has been thoughtfully curated to enhanc

Key facts

• Quartz island
• Natural light
• Small backyard

Tags

• FIRST FLOOR FAMILY KITCHEN
• SMALL BACKYARD
• NATURAL LIGHT
• PREMIUM FINISHES
• QUARTZ ISLAND
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Builder: 3 Point Group; Approximately 1,600 total building area; Lot in a subdivision (approx. 2,590 sq ft)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; New construction (2024); Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Cement siding; Built in 2024; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Deck; Fully fenced backyard; Back yard fence

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing range; Gas cooktop; Oven; Microwave; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (second level); Bedroom (second level) — 12x12; Bedroom (second level) — 12x11
• Flooring: Plank flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom; Primary bathroom (second level, shared); Ensuite bathroom (second level); Powder room (first level)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: High ceilings; Kitchen island; Kitchen/family room combo; Pantry; Pots & pan drawers; Double vanity; Soaking tub; Separate shower; Tub/shower; Low emissivity windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $265,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $267,530.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $265k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-404 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $196k (25.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (24.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $196k (25.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 3.1% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Shadydale El (math 11% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,990 of 4,322 statewide, top 93%, 631 students, 95% FRL); Forest Brook Middle (math 12% / reading 14%, grade F, #1,609 of 1,662 statewide, top 97%, 613 students, 98% FRL); North Forest H S (math 13% / reading 18%, grade F, #1,505 of 1,632 statewide, top 92%, 974 students, 97% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 71% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 15% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 376 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,996/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($48k/yr) (locally 1297% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (8.7% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($257k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $196,239 (25.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.46%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $267,530
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4525 Ireland St	0.10mi	3/2.5	1,627 (-6%)	6mo	$269,000	$165	81
4527 Ireland St	0.10mi	3/2.5	1,627 (-6%)	7mo	$269,000	$165	80
8722 Clarington St	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,600 (-7%)	7mo	$289,000	$181	56
4819 Keeland St	0.65mi	3/2.5	1,627 (-6%)	8mo	$252,000	$155	53
4813 Keeland St	0.65mi	3/2.5	1,627 (-6%)	9mo	$252,000	$155	52
8714 Clarington St	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,600 (-7%)	11mo	$288,000	$180	52
4815 Keeland St	0.65mi	3/2.5	1,627 (-6%)	10mo	$252,000	$155	52
4817 Keeland St	0.65mi	3/2.5	1,627 (-6%)	10mo	$252,000	$155	52
8718 Magna St	0.61mi	3/1.5	1,528 (-12%)	4mo	$200,000	$131	46
5709 Senior St	0.62mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,950 (+13%)	8mo	$115,000	$59	38
5911 Rietta	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,500 (-13%)	9mo	$269,999	$180	38
5813 Mayle St	0.74mi	3/1.0	1,501 (-13%)	10mo	$184,999	$123	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.65% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.21×
• Total profit: $90,805
• Equity at exit: $215,168

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.66×
• Total profit: $274,333
• Equity at exit: $439,002

Cash invested: $74,908 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77016

• Home prices YoY: 2.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 376
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,996 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,403
• Tax from tax record: −$466 /mo · $5,589/yr
• Insurance: −$111
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$419
• Net cashflow: $-404

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,507

Max offer price $196,239

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-252	-5% $-328	+0% $-404	+5% $-479	+10% $-555
Rent	-10% $-561	-5% $-482	+0% $-404	+5% $-325	+10% $-246
Rate	-1.0pp $-269	-0.5pp $-336	base $-404	+0.5pp $-473	+1.0pp $-543

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,882
• Closing costs: $8,026
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9422 Sandra St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1461	$1,875	$1.28	46d	1	0.53mi
8639 Peachtree St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1150	$1,750	$1.52	46d	1	0.59mi
8508 Wileyvale Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1504	$1,650	$1.10	46d	1	0.66mi
4326 Plaag St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1150	$1,595	$1.39	46d	1	0.94mi
7740 Wileyvale Rd Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$3,000	$2.00	46d	1	1.11mi
3222 Bostic St Unit 1571615P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1593	$5,423	$3.40	1d	1	1.12mi
3208 Bostic St Unit 1254540P Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1603	$3,673	$2.29	1d	1	1.15mi
8326 Curry Rd Unit 1227052P Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1270	$3,317	$2.61	1d	1	1.18mi
8326 Curry Rd Unit 1228882P Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1614	$2,878	$1.78	10d	1	1.18mi
8322 Curry Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1599	$2,500	$1.56	46d	1	1.18mi
8318 Curry Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1558	$2,299	$1.48	46d	1	1.18mi
8320 Curry Rd Unit 1391267P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1550	$5,033	$3.25	1d	1	1.19mi
8320 Curry Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1558	$8,950	$5.74	24d	1	1.19mi
10329 Wicklowe St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,400	$1.11	23d	1	1.29mi
9314 Sundown Dr Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1608	$1,675	$1.04	1d	1	1.35mi
7119 Bywood St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1150	$1,795	$1.56	46d	1	1.35mi
2530 Aldon St Unit 2530B Houston, TX	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,300	$1.18	46d	1	1.39mi
7201 Hallshire Dr Unit 235 Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1100	$850	$0.77	46d	1	1.41mi
5609 Denmark St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,595	$1.13	46d	1	1.43mi
10221 Bretton Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1350	$1,700	$1.26	26d	1	1.45mi
10221 Bretton Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1650	$1,650	$1.00	0d	1	1.45mi
9320 Firnat St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1900	$1,850	$0.97	9d	1	1.46mi
9324 Firnat St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,900	$1.19	24d	1	1.46mi
9328 Firnat St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1902	$1,900	$1.00	46d	1	1.46mi
9326 Firnat St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1902	$1,900	$1.00	46d	1	1.46mi
9410 Firnat St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	1d	1	1.47mi
9410 Firnat St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	46d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $265,000 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $265,000 Active 31 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $265,000 Active 30 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $265,000 Active 29 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $265,000 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $265,000 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $265,000 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $265,000 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $265,000 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $265,000 Active 17 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $265,000 Active 14 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $265,000 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-05-18
    listed $265,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,589 · $466/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,589 · $466/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,948
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,986
• − Property taxes: −$5,589
• − Insurance: −$1,338
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,916
• − Management: −$1,916
• − Depreciation: −$7,783
• Taxable loss: −$9,578
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,299
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,544/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This move-in-ready home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a clean, contemporary design. It's an ideal investment opportunity for both buyers and renters.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances the home's curb appeal and can attract more potential buyers or renters.
• Both Add smart home features — Improves convenience and can increase the home's market value.
• Both Install smart thermostat — Saves energy and can be a selling point for potential buyers or renters.
• Both Add smart lighting system — Enhances the home's ambiance and can be a selling point for potential buyers or renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances the home's curb appeal and can attract more potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Improves convenience and can increase the home's market value. ↑
• Both Install smart thermostat — Saves energy and can be a selling point for potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Add smart lighting system — Enhances the home's ambiance and can be a selling point for potential buyers or renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,841
• Household income: $47,677
• Rent vs Own: 38.8% rent · 61.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1297.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (56%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 56% Hispanic / Latino 42% Two or more races 28%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 37%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.65%
• Current HPI: 315.6765
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $265,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+846.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,589 · +846.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.