Simone Plan · Elgin, TX 78621

$279,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,162 sqft · SingleFamily · 35 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.2/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.5/10.0

Listing remarks

Introducing The Simone, a brand-new two-story floorplan designed with your family in mind! This thoughtfully crafted home features 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, a game room, and a 2-car garage. The open kitchen, complete with a center island and cozy breakfast area, flows seamlessly into the spacious family room, filled with natural light. The primary bedroom, located on the main floor, offers a peaceful retreat and opens to the ensuite bathroom through elegant French doors. Inside, you'll find dual vanities, a walk-in shower, and a generous walk-in closet. A conveniently located utility room and half bath complete the first floor. Upstairs, a versatile game room provides the perfect space for fun

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Listed 35 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 25812 Jasmine Sprig Ln, Elgin TX 78621; Listing status: Active
• Financial info: List price $279,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Home design: Simone floor plan; Single-family property (new construction)
• Construction: Built as part of 2026 inventory (plan-built)
• Exterior features: New construction plan home; Living area approximately 2162

Interior

• Kitchen: Plan includes a finished kitchen
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Open living area (plan-built home)

🏗️ New construction. The $279,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $333,826.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-611 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $245k (12.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (23.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $215k (23.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in TX, #4,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Neidig El (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 599 students, 79% FRL); Elgin Middle (math 22% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,327 of 1,662 statewide, top 81%, 780 students, 82% FRL); Elgin H S (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 1,672 students, 74% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 814 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $36k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $33k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$57k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $214,632 (23.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.85%
• DSCR: 0.65
• GRM: 13.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $333,826
• List price: $279,990
• Delta: -16.13%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
25605 Flora Bella Ln	0.20mi	4/2.5	2,162 (0%)	2mo	$319,995	$148	89
13717 Tucker Hedge Pass	0.12mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,210 (+2%)	2mo	$363,950	$165	84
13821 Tucker Hedge Pass	0.17mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,210 (+2%)	2mo	$329,990	$149	82
25620 Wheat Seed Ln	0.22mi	4/2.5	2,319 (+7%)	2mo	$324,990	$140	76
13709 Tucker Hedge Pass	0.11mi	4/2.0	1,974 (-9%)	3mo	$324,990	$165	76
25624 Wheat Seed Ln	0.22mi	4/2.5	2,348 (+9%)	2mo	$319,995	$136	74
618 Lavaca Loop	0.50mi	4/2.5	2,075 (-4%)	3mo	$289,900	$140	68
18316 Willow Sage Ln	0.61mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,209 (+2%)	2mo	$265,000	$120	61
13601 Hamilton Hart Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,840 (-15%)	1mo	$329,890	$179	58
18436 Windtree Ln	0.56mi	4/3.0	2,420 (+12%)	3mo	$282,000	$117	50
18400 Sun Haven Cv	0.71mi	4/3.0	2,343 (+8%)	4mo	$273,900	$117	48
19428 Bear Grass Dr	0.57mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,463 (+14%)	2mo	$298,000	$121	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.53×
• Total profit: $143,162
• Equity at exit: $300,737

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.84×
• Total profit: $452,803
• Equity at exit: $648,550

Cash invested: $93,471 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78621

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 814
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,146 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,751
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$417 /mo · $5,007/yr
• Insurance: −$139
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$451
• Net cashflow: $-611

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,920

Max offer price $245,355

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-381	-5% $-496	+0% $-611	+5% $-727	+10% $-842
Rent	-10% $-781	-5% $-696	+0% $-611	+5% $-527	+10% $-442
Rate	-1.0pp $-443	-0.5pp $-526	base $-611	+0.5pp $-698	+1.0pp $-786

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $83,456
• Closing costs: $10,015
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
101 Bandara Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1499	$1,769	$1.18	17d	1	0.16mi
102 Blanco Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	2450	$1,800	$0.73	45d	1	0.18mi
401 Bandara Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1665	$1,875	$1.13	45d	1	0.26mi
722 Lavaca Loop Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2075	$1,895	$0.91	20d	1	0.48mi
18436 Weatherby Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2095	$2,000	$0.95	6d	1	0.50mi
19017 Romano Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	3.0	2473	$2,198	$0.89	6d	1	0.56mi
18408 Cloudmore Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	3.0	2420	$2,150	$0.89	0d	1	0.58mi
19405 Bear Grass Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1495	$1,760	$1.18	45d	1	0.60mi
18721 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1773	$2,452	$1.38	0d	1	0.71mi
11524 Rush Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	3.0	2473	$2,300	$0.93	45d	1	0.72mi
18525 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,725	$0.96	20d	1	0.78mi
18505 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,950	$1.09	26d	1	0.78mi
18505 Quiet Range Dr Unit 18505 Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,785	$0.99	6d	1	0.78mi
18612 Allen Welch Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,935	$1.08	0d	1	0.84mi
13501 Sierra Wind Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2066	$2,500	$1.21	22d	1	0.85mi
18500 Allen Welch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,875	$1.23	0d	1	0.86mi
14101 Prospector Way Unit 14101 Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2198	$2,099	$0.95	26d	1	0.88mi
14101 Prospector Way Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2198	$2,099	$0.95	45d	1	0.88mi
16429 Farmhouse Ln Elgin, TX	5.0	2.5	2542	$2,000	$0.79	5d	1	0.88mi
419 Gettysburg Loop Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1565	$1,850	$1.18	14d	1	0.89mi
19024 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	5.0	2.5	2542	$1,995	$0.78	45d	1	0.90mi
14300 Boomtown Way Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$2,050	$1.14	26d	1	0.91mi
18741 Speculator Ln Elgin, TX	5.0	2.5	2542	$1,980	$0.78	26d	1	0.91mi
14421 Prairie Sod Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,650	$1.08	4d	1	0.93mi
107 Tillage Rd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1548	$1,765	$1.14	0d	1	0.94mi
14141 Prospector Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1520	$1,650	$1.09	45d	1	0.96mi
17041 Dusty Boots Ln Elgin, TX	5.0	2.5	2542	$2,370	$0.93	5d	1	1.02mi
18300 Speculator Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,995	$1.11	26d	1	1.04mi
234 Heritage Mill Trl Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1530	$1,800	$1.18	0d	1	1.04mi
18224 Speculator Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1599	$1,700	$1.06	45d	1	1.05mi
17001 Dusty Boots Ln Elgin, TX	5.0	2.5	2542	$1,945	$0.77	22d	1	1.07mi
14521 Gurneys Eagle Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1878	$1,895	$1.01	3d	1	1.14mi
18501 Spotted Eagle Ln Elgin, TX	5.0	3.5	2891	$2,800	$0.97	5d	1	1.16mi
18200 Papuan Cv Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,900	$1.36	5d	1	1.17mi
102 Schuylerville Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1479	$1,800	$1.22	45d	1	1.18mi
14129 Tordillo Dr Unit NA Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,495	$1.33	0d	1	1.22mi
14129 Tordillo Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,675	$1.43	26d	1	1.22mi
116 Honeybee Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1782	$2,000	$1.12	6d	1	1.23mi
212 Lake Placid Run Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1681	$1,895	$1.13	0d	1	1.29mi
209 Lake Placid Run Elgin, TX	5.0	3.0	2196	$2,200	$1.00	26d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $279,990 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,990 Active 32 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $279,990 Active 31 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $279,990 Active 30 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $279,990 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $279,990 Active 27 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $279,990 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $279,990 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $279,990 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $279,990 Active 18 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $279,990 Active 17 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $279,990 Active 16 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $279,990 Active 15 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $279,990 Active 14 DOM
15. 2026-05-15
    listed $319,990 Active 923-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,756
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,699
• − Property taxes: −$5,007
• − Insurance: −$1,669
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,060
• − Management: −$2,060
• − Depreciation: −$9,711
• Taxable loss: −$13,452
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,229
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,108/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818360
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,176
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8749
• State rank: #741 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #4404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elgin, TX
• County: Bastrop County · 68,601 people
• City population: 27,860
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,411
• Household income: $98,534
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 38% Two or more races 19% Black 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B