38 North St · Mexico, NY 13114

$80,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,672 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1930 0.61 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

4 Bedroom home available in Mexico, NY

Key facts

• 0.61 acre lot
• Built 1930
• Listed 14 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: 2-story existing structure; Vinyl siding exterior; Block foundation
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; City street frontage; Rectangular residential lot (approx. 0.61 acres, dimensions 140 x 198)

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas water heater
• Bedrooms: Total of 6 rooms (includes living areas and bedrooms)
• Flooring: Hardwood; Varies
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced air heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $434 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Cap rate 12.8% vs local median 3.1% in Mexico — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#756 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Mexico Central School District (rural): math 33% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #540 of 590 in NY (top 92%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 172 units permitted in Oswego County in 2024 (27 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($553 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Oswego County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $80k implies a 60% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $80,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.68% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.27%
• DSCR: 2.04
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $254,144
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3238-40 Main St	0.22mi	4/2.5	1,680 (+0%)	6mo	$198,500	$118	78
90 Wayne St	0.51mi	4/1.5	1,814 (+8%)	6mo	$150,000	$83	55
1 S Jefferson St	0.59mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,606 (-4%)	10mo	$250,000	$156	52
80 Academy St	0.59mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,610 (-4%)	16mo	$267,800	$166	48
5620 Norman Ave	0.60mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,672 (0%)	20mo	$225,000	$135	48
248 Munger Hill Rd	0.61mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,488 (-11%)	6mo	$87,500	$59	41
97 & 99 Wayne St	0.51mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,522 (-9%)	12mo	$260,000	$171	38
127 Hamilton St	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,746 (+4%)	18mo	$265,000	$152	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 41.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.18×
• Total profit: $71,304
• Equity at exit: $72,070

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.1%
• Equity multiple: 9.41×
• Total profit: $188,354
• Equity at exit: $155,422

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13114

• Home prices YoY: 18.3%
• Active inventory: 26
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,345 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax from tax record: −$175 /mo · $2,100/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$282
• Net cashflow: $434

Break-even live

Break-even rent $795

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 63%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-05
   statusdays on market $80,000 Pending 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $80,000 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $80,000 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $80,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $80,000 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-05-20
   listed $80,000 Active
7. 2026-02-11
   historical
8. 2026-01-25
   historical
9. 2026-01-22
   historical
10. 2025-09-17
    price $39,900
11. 2025-09-04
    price $45,000
12. 2025-08-15
    listed $49,900 Active
13. 2003-12-23
    soldstatus $50,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,100 · $175/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,100 · $175/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,135
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$2,100
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,291
• − Management: −$1,291
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $4,246
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,019
• After-tax cash flow: $4,194/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mexico Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3619170
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $51,635
• Composite: 32.55/100
• National rank: #5691
• State rank: #540 of 590 in NY

Livability — Mexico

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #756
• US rank: #14489

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mexico, NY
• City population: 7,313
• Population (ZIP): 7,313

Population outlook (Oswego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 114,465 people
• By 2030: 109,968 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 99,205 · -13.3%
• By 2050: 87,979 · -23.1%
• By 2075: 65,100 · -43.1%
• By 2100: 47,117 · -58.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oswego

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.2) · D 37.9% · R 62.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.5pp · 2024: -24.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.2 2020: R+20.2 2016: R+23.2 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+2.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 50.65%
• Current HPI: 327.6719
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+60.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $80,000 CNYIS
• 2026-02-11 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2026-01-25 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2026-01-22 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2025-09-17 Price Changed $39,900 CNYIS
• 2025-09-04 Price Changed $45,000 CNYIS
• 2025-08-15 Listed $49,900 CNYIS
• 2003-12-23 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,100 · -17.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.