354 Holly Ridge Dr · Montgomery, AL 36109

$164,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,286 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 153 Days on market

Built 1963 0.42 ac lot $128/sqft · 57% above area Est $228k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This property is located in a well known and desirable neighborhood is ready for a new owner. Conveniently located slow to shopping outlets, Not to far from Gunter Air Force base and the interstate is close by. Don't let this one get away. Call you favorite agent to show.

Key facts

• 0.42 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 1963

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $164k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $360 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $164k).
• Recommended offer: $144k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 6.0% in Montgomery — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#138 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, employment D, crime F.
• Montgomery County (urban): math 9% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #106 of 129 in AL (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 207 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 460 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (37 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 153 days — a 12% lower offer ($144k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $51k (24%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $142k; 15% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $144,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 153 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.41%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $227,882
• List price: $164,000
• Delta: -28.03%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-4,275
• Equity at exit: $24,453

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.51×
• Total profit: $23,198
• Equity at exit: $14,180

Cash invested: $45,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36109

• Home prices YoY: -20.1%
• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 207
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,830 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$860
• Tax from tax record: −$157 /mo · $1,890/yr
• Insurance: −$68
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$384
• Net cashflow: $360

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,374

Max offer price $164,000

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,000
• Closing costs: $4,920
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3602 Little John Dr Montgomery, AL	4.0	1.0	1286	$1,400	$1.09	21d	1	0.78mi
844 Sir Michael Dr Montgomery, AL	4.0	2.0	1502	$1,650	$1.10	44d	1	0.82mi
1216 Beechdale Rd Montgomery, AL	4.0	2.0	1495	$1,325	$0.89	44d	1	1.06mi
3309 Hillcrest Ln Unit 1043908P Montgomery, AL	4.0	2.0	1625	$2,885	$1.78	21d	1	1.09mi
239 Forest Hills Dr Montgomery, AL	4.0	1.5	1500	$1,450	$0.97	21d	1	1.17mi
3359 Bedford Ln Montgomery, AL	4.0	2.0	1786	$1,600	$0.90	14d	1	1.26mi
1229 Karen Rd Montgomery, AL	4.0	2.0	1344	$1,590	$1.18	44d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $164,000 Active 153 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $164,000 Active 152 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $164,000 Active 151 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $164,000 Active 150 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $164,000 Active 148 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $164,000 Active 147 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $164,000 Active 145 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $164,000 Active 144 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $164,000 Active 143 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $164,000 Active 142 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $174,000 Active 138 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $174,000 Active 137 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $174,000 Active 136 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $174,000 Active 135 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $174,000 Active 134 DOM
16. 2026-05-08
    price $174,000 272-char remark

    Show marketing remark (272 chars)

    This property is located in a well known and desirable neighborhood is ready for a new owner. Conveniently located slow to shopping outlets, Not to far from Gunter Air Force base and the interstate is close by. Don't let this one get away. Call you favorite agent to show.

17. 2026-04-10
    price $184,000 272-char remark

    Show marketing remark (272 chars)

    This property is located in a well known and desirable neighborhood is ready for a new owner. Conveniently located slow to shopping outlets, Not to far from Gunter Air Force base and the interstate is close by. Don't let this one get away. Call you favorite agent to show.

18. 2026-03-14
    price $194,000 272-char remark

    Show marketing remark (272 chars)

    This property is located in a well known and desirable neighborhood is ready for a new owner. Conveniently located slow to shopping outlets, Not to far from Gunter Air Force base and the interstate is close by. Don't let this one get away. Call you favorite agent to show.

19. 2026-02-15
    price $204,000 272-char remark

    Show marketing remark (272 chars)

    This property is located in a well known and desirable neighborhood is ready for a new owner. Conveniently located slow to shopping outlets, Not to far from Gunter Air Force base and the interstate is close by. Don't let this one get away. Call you favorite agent to show.

20. 2026-01-16
    listed $214,900 Active 272-char remark

    Show marketing remark (272 chars)

    This property is located in a well known and desirable neighborhood is ready for a new owner. Conveniently located slow to shopping outlets, Not to far from Gunter Air Force base and the interstate is close by. Don't let this one get away. Call you favorite agent to show.

21. 2025-08-21
    status Active
22. 2025-08-21
    price $210,000
23. 2024-08-30
    listed $279,000 Active
24. 2022-04-20
    price $2,100
25. 2021-10-29
    soldstatus $142,500
26. 2021-07-27
    listed $150,000
27. 2017-03-17
    soldstatus $107,500
28. 2016-05-14
    listed $119,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,890 · $157/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,890 · $157/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,966
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,187
• − Property taxes: −$1,890
• − Insurance: −$820
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,757
• − Management: −$1,757
• − Depreciation: −$4,771
• Taxable income: $1,784
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$428
• After-tax cash flow: $3,895/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery County
• NCES district ID: 0102430
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $43,902
• Composite: 17.24/100
• National rank: #9093
• State rank: #106 of 129 in AL

Livability — Montgomery

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #138
• US rank: #13416

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Montgomery, AL
• County: Montgomery County · 190,016 people
• City population: 175,913
• Metro: Montgomery, AL
• Population (ZIP): 23,581
• Household income: $59,193
• Rent vs Own: 35.1% rent · 64.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1039.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 224,008 people
• By 2030: 221,460 · -1.1%
• By 2040: 214,179 · -4.4%
• By 2050: 204,912 · -8.5%
• By 2075: 177,821 · -20.6%
• By 2100: 145,134 · -35.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Black 39% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+30.7) · D 64.8% · R 34.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.2pp · 2024: 30.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+30.7 2020: D+31.5 2016: D+26.2 2012: D+24.3 2008: D+19.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -37.64%
• Current HPI: 149.3867
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.65%
• Metro: Montgomery, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+45.1% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $174,000 MAAR
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $184,000 MAAR
• 2026-03-14 Price Changed $194,000 MAAR
• 2026-02-15 Price Changed $204,000 MAAR
• 2026-01-16 Listed $214,900 MAAR
• 2025-08-21 Relisted — MAAR
• 2025-08-21 Price Changed $210,000 MAAR
• 2024-08-30 Listed $279,000 MAAR
• 2022-04-20 Price Changed $2,100 RENT.
• 2021-10-29 Sold (Public Records) $142,500 Public Records
• 2021-07-27 Listed $150,000 MAAR
• 2017-03-17 Sold (MLS) $107,500 MAAR
• 2016-05-14 Listed $119,900 MAAR

Property tax history

+13.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,890 · -0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.