58558 N Shadow Mountain Pkwy · Seligman, AZ 86337

$99,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 308 Days on market

Built 1984 2.71 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Big views, big potential! 1984 manufactured home with a roomy 2-story site-built addition--ready for your updates and ideas. Enjoy stunning views of the Aubrey Cliffs from your private retreat. Detached garage/storage plus large carport for vehicles, toys, or workshop space. 2,500-gallon water storage tank in place. Off-grid lifestyle with endless possibilities--bring your vision and creativity to make it your own. Plenty of room to spread out, entertain, or simply relax and take in the scenery. A great opportunity for those looking for space, privacy, and incredible views. No HOA or CC&Rs. Fun Bridge Canyon Recreational Assoc. is optional. Fully off-grid location requires water haul.

Key facts

• Large carport
• Off-grid lifestyle
• Private retreat

Tags

• PRIVATE RETREAT
• DETACHED GARAGE
• LARGE CARPORT
• WATER STORAGE TANK
• OFF-GRID LIFESTYLE
• NO HOA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $552 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.9% vs local median 4.0% in Seligman — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#127 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Seligman Unified District (4472) (rural): math 20% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #339 of 501 in AZ (top 68%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 293 active listings in the ZIP; 2,062 units permitted in Yavapai County in 2024 (98 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Yavapai County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-2.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 308 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 308 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.49% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.69%
• DSCR: 2.05
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.83×
• Total profit: $23,189
• Equity at exit: $19,399

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.47×
• Total profit: $69,168
• Equity at exit: $16,574

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86337

• Home prices YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 293
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,486 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$57 /mo · $680/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$312
• Net cashflow: $552

Break-even live

Break-even rent $788

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 58%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $99,900 Active 308 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,900 Active 307 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,900 Active 306 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,900 Active 305 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,900 Active 304 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,900 Active 302 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,900 Active 301 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,900 Active 299 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,900 Active 298 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $99,900 Active 297 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $99,900 Active 296 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 292 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 291 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 290 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 289 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $125,000 Active 288 DOM
17. 2025-08-15
    listed $149,900 Active 698-char remark

    Show marketing remark (698 chars)

    Big views, big potential! 1984 manufactured home with a roomy 2-story site-built addition--ready for your updates and ideas. Enjoy stunning views of the Aubrey Cliffs from your private retreat. Detached garage/storage plus large carport for vehicles, toys, or workshop space. 2,500-gallon water storage tank in place. Off-grid lifestyle with endless possibilities--bring your vision and creativity to make it your own. Plenty of room to spread out, entertain, or simply relax and take in the scenery. A great opportunity for those looking for space, privacy, and incredible views. No HOA or CC&Rs. Fun Bridge Canyon Recreational Assoc. is optional. Fully off-grid location requires water haul.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $680 · $57/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $680 · $57/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,837
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$680
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,427
• − Management: −$1,427
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $5,302
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,272
• After-tax cash flow: $5,353/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Seligman Unified District (4472)
• NCES district ID: 0407630
• Math proficiency: 20% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $35,531
• Composite: 23.7/100
• National rank: #13238
• State rank: #339 of 501 in AZ

Livability — Seligman

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #127
• US rank: #16174

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,827

Population outlook (Yavapai County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 241,389 people
• By 2030: 249,523 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 259,966 · +7.7%
• By 2050: 264,736 · +9.7%
• By 2075: 269,334 · +11.6%
• By 2100: 256,505 · +6.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 9% Native American 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 7% Lithuanian 4% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Yavapai

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.9) · D 32.6% · R 66.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.5pp toward R · 2008: -24.4pp · 2024: -33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.9 2020: R+29.3 2016: R+31.4 2012: R+30.7 2008: R+24.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.00%
• Current HPI: 196.1506
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-08-15 Listed $149,900 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+11.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $680 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.