4743 Bellwood Dr NE · Olympia, WA 98506

$281,250

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Manufactured public records · 216 Days on market

Built 2005 0.33 ac lot $186/sqft · 132% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

NO REPRESENTATION TO THE VALIDITY OF INFORMATION IS MADE, BUYER TO VERIFY ALL INFORMATION WHEREIN. Interior inspections are not available; do not trespass!

Key facts

• 0.33 acre lot
• Built 2005
• Listed 216 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $281k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $66 ($794/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $253k (10.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $248k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 2.4% in Olympia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#58 in WA, #1,036 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living D-.
• Olympia School District (urban): math 66% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #17 of 291 in WA (top 6%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 150 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,222 units permitted in Thurston County in 2024 (508 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Thurston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 216 days — a 12% lower offer ($248k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $22k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $247,500 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 216 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.01%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $120,991
• List price: $281,250
• Delta: 132.46%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4743 Bellwood Dr NE	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,512 (0%)	0mo	$274,500	$182	100
4724 Bellwood Dr NE	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-5%)	7mo	$387,200	$269	84
4826 Bellwood Dr NE	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-5%)	23mo	$300,000	$208	70
4806 Cushman Rd NE #103	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,536 (+2%)	12mo	$82,000	$53	68
4805 Cushman Rd NE #32	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,512 (0%)	13mo	$305,000	$202	64
4806 Cushman Rd NE #118	0.45mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-5%)	16mo	$145,000	$101	52
4805 Cushman Rd NE #115	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,404 (-7%)	10mo	$220,000	$157	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.66% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-39,639
• Equity at exit: $41,935

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-21,932
• Equity at exit: $24,317

Cash invested: $78,750 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98506

• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 150
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,530 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,475
• Tax from tax record: −$340 /mo · $4,085/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$531
• Net cashflow: $66

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,446

Max offer price $281,250

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $225	-5% $146	+0% $66	+5% $-13	+10% $-93
Rent	-10% $-134	-5% $-34	+0% $66	+5% $166	+10% $266
Rate	-1.0pp $208	-0.5pp $138	base $66	+0.5pp $-7	+1.0pp $-81

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,312
• Closing costs: $8,438
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5110 Boston Harbor Rd NE Olympia, WA	3.0	2.0	1828	$3,395	$1.86	14d	1	0.33mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-16
   price $281,250
3. 2025-10-15
   listed $303,750 Active
4. 2021-04-16
   soldstatus $340,000 Sold
5. 2021-04-15
   soldstatus $340,000
6. 2021-03-15
   status Pending
7. 2021-03-11
   listed $315,000 Active
8. 2018-12-13
   soldstatus $210,000
9. 1992-08-06
   soldstatus $55,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,085 · $340/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,085 · $340/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,359
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,754
• − Property taxes: −$4,085
• − Insurance: −$1,406
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,429
• − Management: −$2,429
• − Depreciation: −$8,182
• Taxable loss: −$3,926
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$942
• After-tax cash flow: $1,736/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Olympia School District
• NCES district ID: 5306180
• Math proficiency: 66% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 75% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $63,852
• Composite: 62.27/100
• National rank: #1438
• State rank: #17 of 291 in WA

Livability — Olympia

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #58
• US rank: #1036

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime F Employment B- Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Thurston County · 269,345 people
• City population: 98,428
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• Population (ZIP): 18,497
• Household income: $91,596
• Rent vs Own: 33.7% rent · 66.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 924.0

Population outlook (Thurston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 308,239 people
• By 2030: 326,483 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 359,890 · +16.8%
• By 2050: 391,800 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 468,024 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 519,890 · +68.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 5% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 5% Italian 4% Romanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Thurston

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.4) · D 58.5% · R 38.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.3pp toward R · 2008: 21.7pp · 2024: 20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.4 2020: D+18.6 2016: D+15.4 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -437.08%
• Current HPI: 363.2295
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.66%
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+411.4% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $281,250 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-15 Listed $303,750 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-04-16 Sold (MLS) $340,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-04-15 Sold (Public Records) $340,000 Public Records
• 2021-03-15 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-03-11 Listed $315,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-12-13 Sold (Public Records) $210,000 Public Records
• 1992-08-06 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $4,085 · +9.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.