3444 Erdman Ave · Baltimore, MD 21213

$164,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,600 sqft · Townhouse public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1942 1,500 sqft lot Est $147k · 12% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.6/30.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.1/15.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice Brick front Townhouse, Close to Bel Air - Shopping - Bus Line - 3 Bedroom 2 Full Bath

Key facts

• Move-in ready
• Finished basement
• 4 rentable rooms

Tags

• FINISHED BASEMENT
• 4 RENTABLE ROOMS
• MOVE-IN READY
• CLOSE TO BEL AIR ROAD SHOPPING
• CLOSE TO BUS LINE
• CLOSE TO HERRING RUN PARK

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Ground rent paid annually

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Public septic
• Home design: Interior townhouse/rowhouse; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Brick construction; Shingle roof; Concrete perimeter foundation; Built year per assessor
• Exterior features: Above-grade and below-grade structures

Interior

• Kitchen: Efficiency kitchen
• Basement: Partially finished basement
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the first upper level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (one on upper level, one on lower level)
• Heating & cooling: Radiator heating; Oil-fired heat; Electric hot water
• Interior features: Open and traditional floor plans; Flat ceiling; Efficiency kitchen

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $281 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 6.0% in Baltimore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 319 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $204 of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-937 appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-0.6% appreciation + 5.2% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $135k; 22% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1942 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $164,999

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1942 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.31%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $147,200
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3620 Erdman Ave	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,600 (0%)	2mo	$120,000	$75	91
3564 Elmora Ave	0.22mi	3/1.5	1,478 (-8%)	1mo	$133,500	$90	74
3114 Mareco Ave	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,410 (-12%)	2mo	$125,000	$89	69
3444 Belair Rd	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,428 (-11%)	2mo	$131,000	$92	66
3211 Chesterfield Ave	0.30mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,509 (-6%)	3mo	$150,000	$99	65
2835 Brendan Ave	0.36mi	3/1.0	1,725 (+8%)	2mo	$76,500	$44	65
2846 Lake Ave	0.33mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,455 (-9%)	2mo	$235,000	$162	61
3406 Ramona Ave	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,408 (-12%)	0mo	$85,000	$60	58
3571 Dudley Ave	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-12%)	1mo	$175,000	$125	57
3401 Ramona Ave	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,812 (+13%)	0mo	$199,000	$110	56
4208 Sheldon Ave	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,680 (+5%)	2mo	$145,000	$86	56
3022 E Federal St	0.70mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,726 (+8%)	3mo	$250,000	$145	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.57% appreciation · 5.25% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $13,123
• Equity at exit: $43,278

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.52×
• Total profit: $70,179
• Equity at exit: $48,455

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Baltimore: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+58

Just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21213

• Home prices YoY: -0.1%
• Rents YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 319
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,868 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$260 /mo · $3,121/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$392
• Net cashflow: $281

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,511

Max offer price $164,999

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3610 Elmley Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	1200	$1,550	$1.29	20d	1	0.13mi
3551 Elmley Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1872	$2,095	$1.12	23d	1	0.14mi
3519 Kentucky Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1536	$2,100	$1.37	10d	1	0.18mi
3525 Kentucky Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1536	$1,950	$1.27	43d	1	0.19mi
3512 Elmora Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1472	$1,900	$1.29	20d	1	0.23mi
3572 Juneway Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1800	$1,200	$0.67	43d	1	0.29mi
3005 Belair Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	2000	$1,600	$0.80	17d	1	0.30mi
3603 Ravenwood Ave Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	4.0	1.0	1566	$1,600	$1.02	43d	1	0.30mi
3914 Erdman Ave #1 Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,319	$1.10	17d	1	0.32mi
3544 Chesterfield Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,635	$1.36	43d	1	0.34mi
2828 Lake Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1164	$1,850	$1.59	4d	1	0.37mi
3335 Lyndale Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1344	$1,600	$1.19	23d	1	0.37mi
4104 Erdman Ave Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1566	$1,075	$0.69	4d	1	0.38mi
3305 Dudley Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1413	$1,950	$1.38	43d	1	0.39mi
3326 Elmora Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,450	$1.21	23d	1	0.40mi
3028 Kenyon Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1075	$1,395	$1.30	43d	1	0.40mi
3300 Dudley Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1724	$2,200	$1.28	43d	1	0.41mi
2837 Pelham Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1164	$1,675	$1.44	43d	1	0.42mi
3436 Cardenas Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1146	$1,395	$1.22	43d	1	0.42mi
2848 Pelham Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1164	$1,700	$1.46	43d	1	0.42mi
3027 Shannon Dr Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1950	$2,500	$1.28	43d	1	0.43mi
3222 Lyndale Ave Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1500	$2,200	$1.47	12d	1	0.44mi
2817 Pelham Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1464	$1,950	$1.33	23d	1	0.44mi
3213 Elmley Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1188	$1,395	$1.17	43d	1	0.46mi
3515 Parklawn Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1240	$1,700	$1.37	2d	1	0.49mi
3573 Shannon Dr Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1493	$2,300	$1.54	17d	1	0.50mi
3551 Shannon Dr Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1485	$2,358	$1.59	23d	1	0.50mi
2113 Belair Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1344	$1,795	$1.34	43d	1	0.54mi
2735 Chesterfield Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	1536	$2,000	$1.30	10d	1	0.55mi
4244 Shamrock Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1920	$1,850	$0.96	23d	1	0.66mi
4116 Raymonn Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1244	$1,950	$1.57	43d	1	0.69mi
4320 Sheldon Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1280	$1,800	$1.41	23d	1	0.69mi
4300 Orchard Ridge Blvd Baltimore, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1021	$1,809	$1.77	43d	1	0.72mi
4400 Asbury Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1270	$1,995	$1.57	4d	1	0.78mi
4024 Eierman Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1136	$1,825	$1.61	43d	1	0.80mi
1403 N Linwood Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1660	$1,995	$1.20	43d	1	0.88mi
1829 N Port St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	2000	$1,625	$0.81	43d	1	0.88mi
2522 E Federal St Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1760	$1,400	$0.80	43d	1	0.92mi
2621 E Oliver St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,700	$1.06	23d	1	0.95mi
1323 N Kenwood Ave Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	1060	$1,350	$1.27	23d	1	0.95mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $164,999 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $164,999 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $164,999 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $164,999 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 693-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $164,999 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,121 · $260/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,121 · $260/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,412
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$3,121
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,793
• − Management: −$1,793
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $838
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$201
• After-tax cash flow: $3,175/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore City Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400090
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,108
• Composite: 10.08/100
• National rank: #9805
• State rank: #24 of 24 in MD

Livability — Baltimore

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3396

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baltimore, MD
• County: Baltimore City · 558,601 people
• City population: 588,727
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 28,058
• Household income: $51,344
• Rent vs Own: 48.0% rent · 52.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1868.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 624,249 people
• By 2030: 621,541 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 609,756 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 597,249 · -4.3%
• By 2075: 552,236 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 513,934 · -17.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 86% White 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+73.0) · D 85.2% · R 12.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 75.5pp · 2024: 73.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+73.0 2020: D+76.6 2016: D+74.6 2012: D+76.4 2008: D+75.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.57%
• Current HPI: 427.4453
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.25%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+194.6% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $164,999 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-16 Sold (Public Records) $135,000 Public Records
• 2025-11-21 Sold (MLS) $135,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-18 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-18 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-09 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-08-31 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-07-13 Price Changed $149,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-07-13 Listed $149,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-07-13 Coming Soon $169,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-07-10 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-11-11 Price Changed $179,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-11-11 Price Changed $159,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-09-18 Listed $179,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 1990-10-15 Sold (Public Records) $56,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,121 · +5.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.