416 Windomere Dr · West Livingston, TX 77351

$180,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily · 138 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition 0.39 ac lot $150/sqft · 14% below area Est $209k · 14% under $2/mo HOA ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.7/15.0
• Cash flow +9.8/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this charming, dollhouse-cute recent build just minutes from beautiful Lake Livingston! Thoughtfully designed and move-in ready, this home offers modern comfort with a cozy, inviting feel. Enjoy peace of mind and if you’re looking for a full-time residence, weekend retreat, or investment near the lake, this home delivers convenience, charm, and value in a highly desirable location. Seller recently added fencing, solar-powered automatic gate, playground equipment, and an asphalt driveway! Don’t miss your chance to own a nearly new home close to lake living! 2 adjacent lots are optional. Inquire if interested.

Key facts

• Asphalt driveway
• Fencing
• Recent build

Tags

• RECENT BUILD
• FENCING
• SOLAR-POWERED AUTOMATIC GATE
• PLAYGROUND EQUIPMENT
• ASPHALT DRIVEWAY
• HIGHLY DESIRABLE LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $180k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-116 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $163k (9.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $143k (20.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $143k (20.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.5% in West Livingston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#1,501 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Livingston ISD (rural): math 38% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #459 of 826 in TX (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Timber Creek El (math 56% / reading 47%, grade C-, #808 of 4,322 statewide, top 19%, 522 students, 74% FRL); Livingston J H (math 30% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,015 of 1,662 statewide, top 62%, 893 students, 62% FRL); Livingston H S (math 35% / reading 46%, grade F, #798 of 1,632 statewide, top 49%, 1,128 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 63% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 1372 active listings in the ZIP; 769 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 138 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $143,026 (20.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 138 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.76%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $208,787
• List price: $180,000
• Delta: -9.00%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8024 Fm 3126	0.34mi	3/1.5	1,125 (-6%)	13mo	$230,000	$204	60
332 Oak Crest Dr	0.50mi	3/1.5	1,150 (-4%)	12mo	$399,900	$348	58
173 Springview Dr	0.44mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,251 (+4%)	18mo	$325,000	$260	52
428 Windomere Dr	0.01mi	2/1.5 (-1)	972 (-19%)	20mo	$150,000	$154	51
385 Sunset Shadows Blvd	0.81mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,426 (+19%)	21mo	$499,000	$350	18

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-36,535
• Equity at exit: $26,839

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-41,238
• Equity at exit: $15,563

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 4 active
• Median asking: $532,000 ($380/sqft)
• Median days on market: 83 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -54.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77351

• Home prices YoY: -14.8%
• Active inventory: 1372
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,430 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$225 /mo · $2,700/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$2
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$300
• Net cashflow: $-116

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,577

Max offer price $163,210

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $8	-5% $-54	+0% $-116	+5% $-178	+10% $-240
Rent	-10% $-229	-5% $-173	+0% $-116	+5% $-60	+10% $-3
Rate	-1.0pp $-25	-0.5pp $-70	base $-116	+0.5pp $-163	+1.0pp $-210

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   remarks 699-char remark
2. 2026-08-08
   pricedays on market $180,000 Active 138 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $190,000 Active 136 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $190,000 Active 135 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $190,000 Active 134 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $190,000 Active 133 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $190,000 Active 130 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $190,000 Active 129 DOM
9. 2026-07-30
   days on market $190,000 Active 128 DOM
10. 2026-07-28
    days on market $190,000 Active 127 DOM
11. 2026-07-26
    days on market $190,000 Active 125 DOM
12. 2026-07-24
    days on market $190,000 Active 123 DOM
13. 2026-07-23
    days on market $190,000 Active 122 DOM
14. 2026-07-22
    days on market $190,000 Active 121 DOM
15. 2026-07-21
    days on market $190,000 Active 120 DOM
16. 2026-07-20
    days on market $190,000 Active 119 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $190,000 Active 117 DOM
18. 2026-07-18
    days on market $190,000 Active 116 DOM
19. 2026-07-16
    days on market $190,000 Active 115 DOM
20. 2026-07-15
    days on market $190,000 Active 114 DOM
21. 2026-07-14
    days on market $190,000 Active 113 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $190,000 Active 112 DOM
23. 2026-07-13
    days on market $190,000 Active 111 DOM
24. 2026-07-11
    days on market $190,000 Active 110 DOM
25. 2026-07-10
    days on market $190,000 Active 109 DOM
26. 2026-07-09
    days on market $190,000 Active 108 DOM
27. 2026-07-07
    days on market $190,000 Active 106 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $190,000 Active 105 DOM
29. 2026-07-06
    days on market $190,000 Active 104 DOM
30. 2026-07-05
    days on market $190,000 Active 103 DOM
31. 2026-07-03
    days on market $190,000 Active 102 DOM
32. 2026-07-02
    days on market $190,000 Active 101 DOM
33. 2026-07-01
    days on market $190,000 Active 100 DOM
34. 2026-06-30
    days on market $190,000 Active 99 DOM
35. 2026-06-29
    days on market $190,000 Active 98 DOM
36. 2026-06-28
    days on market $190,000 Active 97 DOM
37. 2026-06-27
    days on market $190,000 Active 96 DOM
38. 2026-06-26
    days on market $190,000 Active 95 DOM
39. 2026-06-24
    days on market $190,000 Active 93 DOM
40. 2026-06-22
    days on market $190,000 Active 91 DOM
41. 2026-06-21
    pricedays on market $190,000 Active 90 DOM
42. 2026-06-18
    days on market $210,000 Active 87 DOM
43. 2026-06-17
    days on market $210,000 Active 86 DOM
44. 2026-06-16
    days on market $210,000 Active 85 DOM
45. 2026-06-15
    days on market $210,000 Active 84 DOM
46. 2026-06-10
    days on market $210,000 Active 78 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $210,000 Active 77 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $210,000 Active 76 DOM
49. 2026-06-04
    days on market $210,000 Active 73 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $210,000 Active 72 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,163
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$2,700
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,373
• − Management: −$1,373
• − HOA: −$24
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable loss: −$4,526
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,086
• After-tax cash flow: $-306/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,000–$18,000 screening

This charming, move-in ready home offers modern comfort with a cozy, inviting feel. Recent updates include fencing, solar-powered gate, and an asphalt driveway. Potential buyers can enjoy a nearly new home close to lake living.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale paint exterior — enhances curb appeal ↑
• Both landscaping — improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑
• Both install smart home devices — increases convenience and marketability ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 36/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Pine Ridge Pri Middle Livingston J H F TX #1,015/1,662 Nat'l #8,646/14,009 High Livingston H S F TX #798/1,632 Nat'l #8,052/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Livingston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827780
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $39,531
• Composite: 32.25/100
• National rank: #5767
• State rank: #459 of 826 in TX

D Composite livability gradescore 50/100

Livability — West Livingston

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #1501
• US rank: #25668

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: West Livingston, TX
• County: Polk County · 51,049 people
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 37,143
• Household income: $66,834
• Rent vs Own: 21.5% rent · 78.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

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Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 51,049 people
• By 2030: 53,243 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 56,528 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 59,243 · +16.1%
• By 2075: 63,528 · +24.4%
• By 2100: 60,376 · +18.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

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Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.9) · D 20.2% · R 79.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.7pp toward R · 2008: -37.2pp · 2024: -58.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.9 2020: R+54.5 2016: R+56.5 2012: R+48.2 2008: R+37.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.11%
• Current HPI: 178.5316
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-23 Listed $210,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-23 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-01-16 Price Changed $190,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-05 Listed $220,000 HARMLS