3118 N Water St · Bay City, MI 48708

$89,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,057 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 40 Days on market

Built 1923 5,663 sqft lot $85/sqft · 20% below area Est $112k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.3/10.0
• 1% rule +8.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Perfect opportunity for investors or first-time homebuyers alike! This charming 3-bedroom, 1-bathroom home offers over 1,050 square feet of comfortable living space and strong potential as a rental investment with excellent ROI. Featuring a functional layout, spacious bedrooms, and a large yard, this property is ideal for long-term tenants or anyone looking to build equity instead of renting. Conveniently located near schools, shopping, parks, and local amenities, this affordable Bay City home delivers both value and versatility. Whether you're expanding your investment portfolio or searching for a great starter home, this property is full of potential!

Key facts

• 5,663 sq ft lot
• Built 1923
• Listed 39 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Single-family residence; Other architectural style; Built in 1923
• Construction: Aluminum siding construction
• Exterior features: Aluminum siding; 0.13-acre lot; Public water

Interior

• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
• Interior features: Six total rooms; Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $251 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 5.5% in Bay City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#360 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities D, crime F.
• Bay City School District (urban): math 27% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #317 of 540 in MI (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 148 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 39 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 11 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $90k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price; built in 1923 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $87,203 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1923 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.96%
• DSCR: 1.53
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $111,725
• List price: $89,900
• Delta: -19.53%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3204 N Water St	0.05mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,046 (-1%)	3mo	$110,000	$105	89
206 Campbell St	0.11mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,052 (-0%)	8mo	$130,000	$124	83
308 Borton Ave	0.35mi	3/1.0	1,100 (+4%)	8mo	$144,900	$132	71
2702 N VanBuren St	0.20mi	2/1.0 (-1)	948 (-10%)	10mo	$120,000	$127	60
300 Thompson St	0.36mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,016 (-4%)	9mo	$112,000	$110	60
802 1st St	0.61mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,090 (+3%)	3mo	$159,900	$147	59
1302 Green Ave	0.53mi	2/1.0 (-1)	988 (-6%)	1mo	$145,000	$147	59
14 W Sharlear Dr	0.56mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,075 (+2%)	7mo	$130,000	$121	56
2135 4th St	0.73mi	3/1.0	1,040 (-2%)	10mo	$115,000	$111	55
1110 Chase St	0.73mi	3/1.0	1,011 (-4%)	8mo	$115,500	$114	52
700 Scheurmann St	0.70mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,044 (-1%)	10mo	$143,000	$137	50
1020 N TRUMBULL St	0.72mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,170 (+11%)	8mo	$70,000	$60	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $1,490
• Equity at exit: $13,404

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.88×
• Total profit: $22,197
• Equity at exit: $7,773

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48708

• Home prices YoY: -30.9%
• Active inventory: 148
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,231 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax from tax record: −$213 /mo · $2,555/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$259
• Net cashflow: $251

Break-even live

Break-even rent $914

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $302	-5% $276	+0% $251	+5% $225	+10% $200
Rent	-10% $154	-5% $202	+0% $251	+5% $299	+10% $348
Rate	-1.0pp $296	-0.5pp $274	base $251	+0.5pp $228	+1.0pp $204

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1305 Washington Ave Bay City, MI	2.0	1.0	635	$1,675	$2.64	44d	1	1.38mi
800 McKinley St Bay City, MI	2.0	1.0	796	$925	$1.16	44d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $89,900 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,900 Active 39 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,900 Active 38 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,900 Active 37 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,900 Active 36 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $89,900 Active 34 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $89,900 Active 33 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,900 Active 30 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,900 Active 29 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $89,900 Active 28 DOM

    Show marketing remark (661 chars)

    Perfect opportunity for investors or first-time homebuyers alike! This charming 3-bedroom, 1-bathroom home offers over 1,050 square feet of comfortable living space and strong potential as a rental investment with excellent ROI. Featuring a functional layout, spacious bedrooms, and a large yard, this property is ideal for long-term tenants or anyone looking to build equity instead of renting. Conveniently located near schools, shopping, parks, and local amenities, this affordable Bay City home delivers both value and versatility. Whether you're expanding your investment portfolio or searching for a great starter home, this property is full of potential!

11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $94,900 Active 25 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $94,900 Active 24 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $94,900 Active 23 DOM
14. 2026-05-06
    listed $94,900 Active 661-char remark

    Show marketing remark (661 chars)

    Perfect opportunity for investors or first-time homebuyers alike! This charming 3-bedroom, 1-bathroom home offers over 1,050 square feet of comfortable living space and strong potential as a rental investment with excellent ROI. Featuring a functional layout, spacious bedrooms, and a large yard, this property is ideal for long-term tenants or anyone looking to build equity instead of renting. Conveniently located near schools, shopping, parks, and local amenities, this affordable Bay City home delivers both value and versatility. Whether you're expanding your investment portfolio or searching for a great starter home, this property is full of potential!

15. 2026-05-06
    listed $94,900 Active 661-char remark

    Show marketing remark (661 chars)

    Perfect opportunity for investors or first-time homebuyers alike! This charming 3-bedroom, 1-bathroom home offers over 1,050 square feet of comfortable living space and strong potential as a rental investment with excellent ROI. Featuring a functional layout, spacious bedrooms, and a large yard, this property is ideal for long-term tenants or anyone looking to build equity instead of renting. Conveniently located near schools, shopping, parks, and local amenities, this affordable Bay City home delivers both value and versatility. Whether you're expanding your investment portfolio or searching for a great starter home, this property is full of potential!

16. 2026-05-06
    listed $94,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (661 chars)

    Perfect opportunity for investors or first-time homebuyers alike! This charming 3-bedroom, 1-bathroom home offers over 1,050 square feet of comfortable living space and strong potential as a rental investment with excellent ROI. Featuring a functional layout, spacious bedrooms, and a large yard, this property is ideal for long-term tenants or anyone looking to build equity instead of renting. Conveniently located near schools, shopping, parks, and local amenities, this affordable Bay City home delivers both value and versatility. Whether you're expanding your investment portfolio or searching for a great starter home, this property is full of potential!

17. 2024-03-12
    historical $1,250
18. 2024-03-02
    historical $1,250
19. 2024-03-02
    listed $1,250
20. 2024-03-02
    listed $1,250
21. 2024-02-28
    soldstatus $45,000
22. 2024-02-26
    soldstatus $45,000 Closed
23. 2024-01-21
    status Pending
24. 2024-01-18
    listed $44,900 Active
25. 2021-09-30
    historical
26. 2021-07-27
    listed $15,000 Active
27. 2013-02-22
    soldstatus $8,900
28. 2012-11-16
    listed $8,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,555 · $213/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,555 · $213/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,775
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$2,555
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,182
• − Management: −$1,182
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable income: $1,755
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$421
• After-tax cash flow: $2,589/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay City School District
• NCES district ID: 2604260
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,833
• Composite: 28.47/100
• National rank: #6743
• State rank: #317 of 540 in MI

Livability — Bay City

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #360
• US rank: #8912

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bay City, MI
• County: Bay County · 36,975 people
• City population: 25,635
• Metro: Bay City, MI
• Population (ZIP): 25,635
• Household income: $50,518
• Rent vs Own: 29.9% rent · 70.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 528.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 101,476 people
• By 2030: 98,152 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 89,711 · -11.6%
• By 2050: 80,614 · -20.6%
• By 2075: 60,544 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 41,603 · -59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 17% Lithuanian 7% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: R (+14.7) · D 42.0% · R 56.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.0pp toward R · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: -14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.7 2020: R+11.6 2016: R+12.6 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -82.21%
• Current HPI: 183.5774
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Bay City, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+910.1% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-07 Price Changed $89,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-06-07 Price Changed $89,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-06-07 Price Changed $89,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-06-02 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-06-02 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2026-06-02 Relisted — SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-05-28 Listing Removed — SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-05-28 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $94,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $94,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $94,900 REALCOMP
• 2024-03-12 Rental Removed $1,250 REALCOMP
• 2024-03-02 Rental Removed $1,250 AAMLS
• 2024-03-02 Listed for Rent $1,250 REALCOMP
• 2024-03-02 Listed for Rent $1,250 AAMLS
• 2024-02-28 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 2024-02-26 Sold (MLS) $45,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-01-21 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-01-18 Listed $44,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-09-30 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-07-27 Listed $15,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2013-02-22 Sold (MLS) $8,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2012-11-16 Listed $8,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+12.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,555 · +22.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.