7828 E Southlake Dr · Floral City, FL 34436

$185,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 724 Days on market

Built 1979 8,926 sqft lot Est $232k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well kept 2 bedroom 1.5 bath home situated on level corner lot. Fenced yard with nice oak trees. 1 car detached garage with opener and 14 x 15 covered patio off the rear of garage. 12 x 20 workshop. New 6 x 13 wooded deck on front of home. Air condtioning system less than 3 years old. Pergo floors and tile flooring are approx. one year old. Close to Floral City Park. Nice setting and shows very well.

Key facts

• Updated exterior
• Corner lot
• 8,926 sq ft lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• UPDATED EXTERIOR
• TOTALLY FENCED PROPERTY
• CLOSE TO A BEAUTIFUL PARK

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area approximately 1,152 (per appraiser); Lot size approximately 0.2 acres; Directions: Turn left onto E Pine Lake Ln then right onto E Southlake Dr
• HOA & community: Community pool; No HOA association indicated; Pets not allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Faces east; Residential property
• Construction: Frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on a 0.2-acre lot
• Exterior features: Deck; Other exterior features; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Other appliances
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath; 1 half bath
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Other laundry features

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $253 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $185k (0.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $163k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.6% in Floral City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#573 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Citrus (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #44 of 73 in FL (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 144 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,443 units permitted in Citrus County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Citrus County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 724 days — a 12% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $73k; list at $185k implies a 153% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $162,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 724 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.86%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $231,552
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7840 E Southlake Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,108 (-4%)	21mo	$225,000	$203	65
8100 E Southlake Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (0%)	17mo	$200,000	$174	64
7808 E Savannah Dr	0.59mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,120 (-3%)	10mo	$225,000	$201	52
9095 S Meredith Ave	0.63mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,279 (+11%)	5mo	$230,000	$180	39
9675 S Buckskin Ave	0.54mi	2/1.0	988 (-14%)	23mo	$230,000	$233	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-13,894
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $8,566
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34436

• Home prices YoY: -3.1%
• Active inventory: 144
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,847 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$159 /mo · $1,906/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$388
• Net cashflow: $253

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,527

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $358	-5% $305	+0% $253	+5% $200	+10% $148
Rent	-10% $107	-5% $180	+0% $253	+5% $326	+10% $399
Rate	-1.0pp $346	-0.5pp $300	base $253	+0.5pp $205	+1.0pp $156

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9789 S Clearsprings Dr Floral City, FL	3.0	2.0	1334	$1,800	$1.35	5d	1	0.47mi
8481 S Great Oaks Dr Floral City, FL	3.0	2.0	1327	$1,950	$1.47	21d	1	1.05mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $185,000 Active 724 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $185,000 Active 723 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $185,000 Active 722 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $185,000 Active 721 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,000 Active 720 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $185,000 Active 718 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $185,000 Active 717 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $185,000 Active 714 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $185,000 Active 713 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $185,000 Active 708 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $185,000 Active 707 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $185,000 Active 706 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,000 Active 705 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $185,000 Active 704 DOM
15. 2024-08-08
    price $185,000
16. 2024-07-04
    price $193,000
17. 2024-06-25
    listed $199,900 Active
18. 2020-12-09
    historical
19. 2020-06-17
    listed $129,900
20. 2004-12-10
    soldstatus $73,000
21. 2004-12-07
    soldstatus $73,000 404-char remark

    Show marketing remark (404 chars)

    Well kept 2 bedroom 1.5 bath home situated on level corner lot. Fenced yard with nice oak trees. 1 car detached garage with opener and 14 x 15 covered patio off the rear of garage. 12 x 20 workshop. New 6 x 13 wooded deck on front of home. Air condtioning system less than 3 years old. Pergo floors and tile flooring are approx. one year old. Close to Floral City Park. Nice setting and shows very well.

22. 2004-08-17
    listed $74,900 404-char remark

    Show marketing remark (404 chars)

    Well kept 2 bedroom 1.5 bath home situated on level corner lot. Fenced yard with nice oak trees. 1 car detached garage with opener and 14 x 15 covered patio off the rear of garage. 12 x 20 workshop. New 6 x 13 wooded deck on front of home. Air condtioning system less than 3 years old. Pergo floors and tile flooring are approx. one year old. Close to Floral City Park. Nice setting and shows very well.

23. 2001-09-18
    soldstatus $48,800
24. 2001-09-18
    soldstatus $48,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,906 · $159/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,906 · $159/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,160
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$1,906
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,773
• − Management: −$1,773
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable income: $39
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$9
• After-tax cash flow: $3,024/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Citrus
• NCES district ID: 1200270
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,618
• Composite: 41.28/100
• National rank: #3519
• State rank: #44 of 73 in FL

Livability — Floral City

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #573
• US rank: #10898

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Floral City, FL
• City population: 8,170
• Population (ZIP): 8,170

Population outlook (Citrus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,622 people
• By 2030: 136,886 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 132,009 · -4.8%
• By 2050: 125,196 · -9.7%
• By 2075: 108,570 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 84,454 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 4% Native American 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 4% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Citrus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.9) · D 26.8% · R 72.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.1pp · 2024: -45.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.9 2020: R+41.0 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+21.9 2008: R+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.20%
• Current HPI: 374.4353
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+279.1% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2024-08-08 Price Changed $185,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-04 Price Changed $193,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-25 Listed $199,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-12-09 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-06-17 Listed $129,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-12-10 Sold (Public Records) $73,000 Public Records
• 2004-12-07 Sold (MLS) $73,000 RACC
• 2004-08-17 Listed $74,900 RACC
• 2001-09-18 Sold (Public Records) $48,800 Public Records
• 2001-09-18 Sold (Public Records) $48,800 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,906 · +8.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.